TMDXTransMedics Group, Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Devicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $87.56 · now $87.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TMDX has typically landed between $65.53 and $119.47 — a range of −25.2% to +36.4% from the issuance price $87.56.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,833 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-05-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($87.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TMDX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $87.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$65.53worst · -25.2%$119.47best · +36.4%
  • now $87.56 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $90.25 (+3.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $79.55–$100.96
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $65.53–$119.47
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,833 windows spanning 2019-05-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-04-15−46.6%−46.6%+0.0%
2020-02-13−45.0%−45.0%+5.1%
2026-04-14−44.5%−44.7%+0.4%
3 best
2023-10-31+101.9%+0.0%+101.9%
2023-10-30+98.3%+0.0%+98.3%
2022-02-23+96.6%+0.0%+96.6%

1,833 overlapping windows · 2019-05-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
71%
+2.7%
n=7
Feb
71%
+15.4%
n=7
Mar
29%
−2.9%
n=7
Apr
71%
+9.5%
n=7
May
43%
+6.2%
n=7
Jun
88%
+13.7%
n=8
Jul
50%
+0.8%
n=8
Aug
63%
+4.9%
n=8
Sep
25%
−8.1%
n=8
Oct
29%
−14.5%
n=7
Nov
86%
+22.3%
n=7
Dec
43%
−2.7%
n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$150$622026-09-11: 1 insider purchase, $109K — Weill David2026-06-15: 1 insider sale, $722K — Gunderson Thomas J.2026-03-04: 4 insider sales, $1.8M — Hernandez Gerardo, Weill David, Lovell Stephanie …2026-03-02: 3 insider sales, $585K — Corcoran Nicholas, Ranganath Anil P., Hernandez Gerardo2025-12-04: 1 insider sale, $128K — Hernandez Gerardo2025-12-03: 1 insider sale, $693K — Weill David2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $436K — Ranganath Anil P.2025-11-17: 1 insider purchase, $1.0M — Hassanein Waleed H2025-10-29: 1 insider sale, $540K — Basile Edward M2025-08: 3 open-market purchases, $2.0M2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $520K2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $540K2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $1.0M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $436K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $822K2026-03: 7 open-market sales, $2.4M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $722K2026-09: 1 open-market purchase, $109K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Weill David — Purchase on 2026-09-11, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Gunderson Thomas J. — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hernandez Gerardo — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed same daydirector Weill David — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hernandez Gerardo — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed same daydirector Lovell Stephanie — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Corcoran Nicholas — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ranganath Anil P. — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hernandez Gerardo — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hernandez Gerardo — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Weill David — Sale on 2025-12-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ranganath Anil P. — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hassanein Waleed H — Purchase on 2025-11-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Basile Edward M — Sale on 2025-10-29, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Weill DaviddirectorPurchase1,336 @ $81.63$109K+8.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open16,392Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-15Gunderson Thomas J.directorSale9,624 @ $75.06$722K−36.6% of holding+1.0%not yet — horizon still open16,642Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04Hernandez GerardoofficerSale5,912 @ $147.21$870K−28.7% of holding−27.8%−55.2%14,689Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04Weill DaviddirectorSale3,571 @ $146.82$524K−22.7% of holding−27.8%−55.2%12,134Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04Hernandez GerardoofficerSale1,324 @ $147.21$195K−8.3% of holding−27.8%−55.2%14,689Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04Lovell StephaniedirectorSale1,193 @ $149.62$178K−29.4% of holding−27.8%−55.2%2,866Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Corcoran NicholasofficerSale2,966 @ $139.12$413K−9.0% of holding−27.4%−54.6%29,831Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Ranganath Anil P.officerSale864 @ $139.12$120K−6.2% of holding−27.4%−54.6%13,091Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Hernandez GerardoofficerSale375 @ $139.12$52K−2.5% of holding−27.4%−54.6%14,689Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-04Hernandez GerardoofficerSale920 @ $139.62$128K−5.8% of holding−5.7%−57.3%15,064Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-03Weill DaviddirectorSale5,000 @ $138.64$693K−29.2% of holding−10.7%−58.9%12,134Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-25Ranganath Anil P.officerSale3,000 @ $145.22$436K−17.7% of holding−17.5%−66.7%13,955Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-17Hassanein Waleed HdirectorPurchase8,775 @ $114.00$1.0M+1.8% of holding+6.7%−52.0%495,009Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-29Basile Edward MdirectorSale4,142 @ $130.45$540K−59.1% of holding+9.5%−31.0%2,866Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-07Hassanein Waleed HdirectorPurchase6,617 @ $116.08$768K+1.4% of holding−11.6%+6.5%484,376Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07Hassanein Waleed HdirectorPurchase1,858 @ $116.85$217K+0.4% of holding−11.6%+6.5%486,234Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-06Hassanein Waleed HdirectorPurchase8,400 @ $118.68$997K+1.8% of holding−14.7%+1.4%477,759Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-04Basile Edward MdirectorSale4,143 @ $125.51$520K−59.1% of holding−18.8%−4.3%2,866Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-09Ranganath Anil P.officerSale686 @ $139.80$96K−4.7% of holding−15.2%−16.7%13,955Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-27Basile Edward MdirectorSale5,000 @ $126.45$632K−63.6% of holding−2.6%−4.7%2,866Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-23Weill DaviddirectorSale732 @ $123.88$91K−5.7% of holding−1.7%−9.1%12,134Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-09Basile Edward MdirectorSale6,000 @ $115.63$694K−89.1% of holding+19.5%−12.7%732Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-03Khayal Tamer IofficerSale2,407 @ $76.43$184K−6.3% of holding+2.1%+50.6%36,042Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-07Khayal Tamer IofficerSale1,083 @ $80.05$87K−4.9% of holding−9.8%+36.4%20,843Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

64 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-17TOBIN JAMES RdirectorGift18,0000Form 4
2026-07-10Hassanein Waleed HdirectorAward / grant49,669171,093Form 4
2026-07-10Hassanein Waleed HdirectorAward / grant112,984112,984Form 4
2026-07-10Hernandez GerardoofficerAward / grant17,24631,935Form 4
2026-07-10Hernandez GerardoofficerAward / grant26,15326,153Form 4
2026-07-10Corcoran NicholasofficerAward / grant11,72741,558Form 4
2026-07-10Corcoran NicholasofficerAward / grant17,78417,784Form 4
2026-06-15Gunderson Thomas J.directorOption exercise19,28526,266Form 4
2026-06-15Gunderson Thomas J.directorOption exercise19,2850Form 4
2026-05-20Kania EdwindirectorAward / grant2,922263,732Form 4
2026-05-20RAINES MERILEEdirectorAward / grant2,9226,981Form 4
2026-05-20Lovell StephaniedirectorAward / grant2,9225,788Form 4
2026-05-20Weill DaviddirectorAward / grant2,92215,056Form 4
2026-05-20TOBIN JAMES RdirectorAward / grant2,9226,981Form 4
2026-05-20Basile Edward MdirectorAward / grant2,9225,788Form 4
2026-05-20Gunderson Thomas J.directorAward / grant2,9226,981Form 4
2026-05-19Forsyth Matthew S.officerAward / grant23,17123,171Form 4
2026-05-19Forsyth Matthew S.officerAward / grant15,40915,409Form 4
2026-03-04Hernandez GerardoofficerOption exercise5,91220,601Form 4
2026-03-04Hernandez GerardoofficerOption exercise1,32416,013Form 4
2026-03-04Weill DaviddirectorOption exercise3,57115,705Form 4
2026-03-04Hernandez GerardoofficerOption exercise1,3243,975Form 4
2026-03-04Hernandez GerardoofficerOption exercise5,91213,010Form 4
2026-03-04Weill DaviddirectorOption exercise3,5711,429Form 4
2026-02-18Cecere GiovanniofficerAward / grant16,73416,734Form 4
2026-02-18Cecere GiovanniofficerAward / grant11,08219,057Form 4
2026-01-23Corcoran NicholasofficerWithheld for tax98432,797Form 4
2025-12-03Weill DaviddirectorOption exercise5,00017,134Form 4
2025-12-03Weill DaviddirectorOption exercise5,0005,000Form 4
2025-11-25Ranganath Anil P.officerOption exercise3,00016,955Form 4
2025-11-25Ranganath Anil P.officerOption exercise3,0007,420Form 4
2025-10-29Basile Edward MdirectorOption exercise4,1427,008Form 4
2025-10-29Basile Edward MdirectorOption exercise4,1420Form 4
2025-10-29Basile Edward MdirectorOption exercise4,1420Form 4
2025-08-04Basile Edward MdirectorOption exercise4,1437,009Form 4
2025-08-04Basile Edward MdirectorOption exercise4,1434,142Form 4
2025-08-04Basile Edward MdirectorOption exercise4,1434,142Form 4
2025-05-27Basile Edward MdirectorOption exercise5,0007,866Form 4
2025-05-27Basile Edward MdirectorOption exercise5,0008,285Form 4
2025-05-27Basile Edward MdirectorOption exercise5,0008,285Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.