Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.63 · now $3.63 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TMC has typically landed between $2.37 and $5.88 — a range of −34.8% to +62.0% from the issuance price $3.63.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,238 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-09-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TMC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.63 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.58 (-1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.98–$4.18
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.37–$5.88
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,238 windows spanning 2021-09-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-09-16 | −70.1% | −71.6% | +0.0% |
| 2021-09-13 | −69.9% | −71.7% | +0.0% |
| 2021-09-14 | −66.9% | −67.7% | +13.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-06-07 | +295.7% | +0.0% | +295.7% |
| 2023-06-06 | +273.4% | +0.0% | +273.4% |
| 2023-06-08 | +262.6% | +0.0% | +262.6% |
1,238 overlapping windows · 2021-09-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
80%
+11.7%
n=5
Feb
80%
+8.2%
n=5
Mar
40%
+0.9%
n=5
Apr
60%
+11.8%
n=5
May
60%
+8.1%
n=5
Jun
40%
+23.0%
n=5
Jul
20%
−12.4%
n=5
Aug
40%
+0.3%
n=5
Sep
60%
−2.2%
n=5
Oct
20%
−12.1%
n=5
Nov
40%
+4.0%
n=5
Dec
20%
−4.9%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Allseas Group S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,305,567 | — | +13.3% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,419,168 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Allseas Group S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,305,567 | — | +13.3% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,419,168 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Allseas Group S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,305,567 | — | +13.3% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,419,168 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Allseas Group S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,305,567 | — | +13.3% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,419,168 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Allseas Group S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,305,567 | — | +13.3% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,419,168 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Allseas Group S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,305,567 | — | +13.3% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,419,168 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | May Brendan | director | Sale | 20,768 @ $6.42 | $133K | −9.7% of holding | −33.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 193,346 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-26 | Shesky Craig | officer | Sale | 215,492 @ $4.53 | $977K | −13.1% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,425,841 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-25 | Shesky Craig | officer | Sale | 78,186 @ $4.58 | $358K | −4.5% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,641,333 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Shesky Craig | officer | Sale | 51,941 @ $4.74 | $246K | −2.9% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,719,519 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | O'Sullivan Anthony | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $6.77 | $339K | −2.4% of holding | −8.9% | −30.8% | 2,025,667 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-28 | O'Sullivan Anthony | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $6.51 | $326K | −2.4% of holding | −12.5% | −18.5% | 2,075,667 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | ILVES Erika | officer | Sale | 1,591,485 @ $5.77 | $9.2M | −58.1% of holding | +34.7% | −17.4% | 1,145,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | O'Sullivan Anthony | officer | Sale | 250,000 @ $5.25 | $1.3M | −18.2% of holding | +19.9% | +15.5% | 1,125,667 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-26 | May Brendan | director | Sale | 44,204 @ $7.38 | $326K | −18.3% of holding | −0.3% | −7.4% | 197,586 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | May Brendan | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $7.80 | $195K | −9.4% of holding | −0.9% | −16.4% | 241,790 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | O'Sullivan Anthony | officer | Sale | 185,110 @ $7.09 | $1.3M | −100.0% of holding | +4.4% | −8.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 69 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | O'Sullivan Anthony | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $4.20 | $210K | −21.3% of holding | +52.1% | +63.8% | 185,110 | Form 4 · filed 80 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | O'Sullivan Anthony | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $4.78 | $478K | −29.8% of holding | +49.3% | +0.1% | 235,110 | Form 4 · filed 93 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Allseas Group S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,333,333 | — | +4.4% of holding | +49.4% | +8.6% | 55,113,601 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Allseas Group S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,333,333 | — | +4.4% of holding | +49.4% | +8.6% | 55,113,601 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Allseas Group S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,333,333 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +49.4% | +8.6% | 2,333,333 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Allseas Group S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,333,333 | — | +4.4% of holding | +49.4% | +8.6% | 55,113,601 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Allseas Group S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,333,333 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +49.4% | +8.6% | 2,333,333 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Allseas Group S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,333,333 | — | +4.4% of holding | +49.4% | +8.6% | 55,113,601 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Allseas Group S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,333,333 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +49.4% | +8.6% | 2,333,333 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Allseas Group S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,333,333 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +49.4% | +8.6% | 2,333,333 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Allseas Group S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,333,333 | — | +4.4% of holding | +49.4% | +8.6% | 55,113,601 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Allseas Group S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,333,333 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +49.4% | +8.6% | 2,333,333 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Allseas Group S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,333,333 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +49.4% | +8.6% | 2,333,333 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Allseas Group S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,333,333 | — | +4.4% of holding | +49.4% | +8.6% | 55,113,601 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | O'Sullivan Anthony | officer | Sale | 164,317 @ $4.49 | $738K | −12.7% of holding | +46.2% | +7.5% | 1,125,667 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-01 | Shesky Craig | officer | Sale | 353,702 @ $1.66 | $586K | −23.6% of holding | +87.2% | +298.2% | 1,145,717 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | May Brendan | director | Sale | 8,916 @ $1.67 | $15K | −7.6% of holding | +17.3% | +225.2% | 108,365 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-30 | ILVES Erika | officer | Sale | 217,099 @ $1.11 | $241K | −17.9% of holding | +33.5% | +485.6% | 998,170 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-24 | May Brendan | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $0.87 | $22K | +33.3% of holding | +75.8% | +647.4% | 100,040 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
218 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Hall Andrew | director | Award / grant | 72,935 | 466,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Hall Andrew | director | Award / grant | 16,528 | 394,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Khama Sheila | director | Award / grant | 16,528 | 353,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Karkar Andrei | director | Award / grant | 16,528 | 459,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Greig Andrew Carlyle | director | Award / grant | 20,292 | 5,090,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Greig Andrew Carlyle | director | Award / grant | 16,528 | 5,106,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Hall Andrew | director | Award / grant | 18,263 | 377,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Karkar Andrei | director | Award / grant | 17,857 | 443,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Khama Sheila | director | Award / grant | 17,316 | 337,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | May Brendan | director | Award / grant | 16,528 | 214,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Madsbjerg Christian | director | Award / grant | 16,528 | 410,403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Madsbjerg Christian | director | Award / grant | 19,075 | 393,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Barron Gerard | director | Award / grant | 816,327 | 41,803,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | ILVES Erika | officer | Award / grant | 453,515 | 5,214,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Shesky Craig | officer | Award / grant | 453,515 | 1,879,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 208,375 | 1,771,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 187,662 | 1,396,583 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 166,502 | 1,563,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 187,662 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 166,502 | 166,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 208,375 | 416,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 63,204 | 1,208,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 5,516 | 32,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 2,758 | 16,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 2,758 | 16,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 2,758 | 16,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 5,516 | 32,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 5,516 | 32,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 63,204 | 189,610 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 1,379 | 8,116 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 6,895 | 40,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 6,895 | 40,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 5,516 | 32,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 5,516 | 32,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 2,758 | 16,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 5,516 | 32,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 1,379 | 8,116 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 63,204 | 189,610 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 6,895 | 40,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shesky Craig | officer | Option exercise | 6,895 | 40,578 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.