TMToyota Motor CorporationConsumer Cyclical · Auto - Manufacturersas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $192.21 · now $192.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TM has typically landed between $172.01 and $216.68 — a range of −10.5% to +12.7% from the issuance price $192.21.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($192.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $192.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$172.01worst · -10.5%$216.68best · +12.7%
  • now $192.21 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $192.7 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $183.27–$202.13
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $172.01–$216.68
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-11−33.4%−33.4%+0.0%
2008-09-10−31.6%−31.6%+0.7%
2008-09-26−31.5%−32.5%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-11+34.3%+0.0%+34.3%
2009-03-12+33.2%+0.0%+34.0%
2009-03-05+29.4%−1.7%+29.4%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+1.5%
n=20
Feb
50%
+1.3%
n=20
Mar
45%
−0.2%
n=20
Apr
35%
+0.1%
n=20
May
40%
−0.3%
n=20
Jun
40%
−0.8%
n=20
Jul
60%
+2.0%
n=20
Aug
50%
−0.5%
n=20
Sep
55%
+0.2%
n=20
Oct
45%
+0.3%
n=20
Nov
65%
+1.3%
n=20
Dec
65%
+2.5%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$244$1672026-08-05: 1 insider purchase, $1.6M — Kon Kenta2026-06-17: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Sato Koji2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $1.6M2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $1.6M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Kon Kenta — Purchase on 2026-08-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sato Koji — Sale on 2026-06-17, filed 33 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-05Kon KentadirectorPurchase85,000 @ $18.41$1.6M+134.7% of holding+7.1%not yet — horizon still open148,100Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-17Sato KojiofficerSale88,600 @ $17.83$1.6M−13.5% of holding+2.9%not yet — horizon still open567,600Form 4 · filed 33 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

93 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25Okamoto ShigeakidirectorAward / grant861,346Form 4
2026-08-25Ueda TatsuroofficerAward / grant8632,747Form 4
2026-08-25Olcott George CunninghamdirectorAward / grant725,027Form 4
2026-08-25Oshima MasahikodirectorAward / grant713,364Form 4
2026-08-25Asakura MasashiofficerAward / grant572,496Form 4
2026-08-25Imura TakahiroofficerAward / grant578,943Form 4
2026-08-25Osada HiromidirectorAward / grant29660Form 4
2026-08-25Fujisawa KumidirectorAward / grant28448Form 4
2026-08-25Tomoyama ShigekiofficerAward / grant143,341Form 4
2026-08-03Shiga TakefumiofficerAward / grant5,1005,100Form 4
2026-07-24Ueda TatsuroofficerAward / grant10432,661Form 4
2026-07-24Okamoto ShigeakidirectorAward / grant1001,260Form 4
2026-07-24Oshima MasahikodirectorAward / grant843,293Form 4
2026-07-24Olcott George CunninghamdirectorAward / grant834,955Form 4
2026-07-24Imura TakahiroofficerAward / grant688,886Form 4
2026-07-24Asakura MasashiofficerAward / grant672,439Form 4
2026-07-24Fujisawa KumidirectorAward / grant34420Form 4
2026-07-24Osada HiromidirectorAward / grant33631Form 4
2026-07-24Tomoyama ShigekiofficerAward / grant173,327Form 4
2026-07-24Kobayashi KojiofficerOther acquisition322,896Form 4
2026-07-24Toyoda AkiodirectorOther acquisition17,865Form 4
2026-07-24Miyazaki YoichidirectorOther acquisition19,126Form 4
2026-07-24Sato KojiofficerOther acquisition111,211Form 4
2026-07-08Kon KentadirectorOther acquisition46134,093Form 4
2026-07-08Shiga TakefumiofficerOther acquisition493,631Form 4
2026-06-30Toyoda AkiodirectorAward / grant368,40024,459,675Form 4
2026-06-30Nakajima HirokidirectorAward / grant71,500404,800Form 4
2026-06-30Miyazaki YoichidirectorAward / grant71,500390,300Form 4
2026-06-30Humphries Simon DavidofficerAward / grant38,000107,426Form 4
2026-06-30Kon KentadirectorAward / grant22,80063,100Form 4
2026-06-30Imura TakahiroofficerAward / grant13,70020,600Form 4
2026-06-30Ogawa TetsuodirectorAward / grant24,30063,100Form 4
2026-06-25Ueda TatsuroofficerOther acquisition49332,557Form 4
2026-06-25Kobayashi KojiofficerOther acquisition33022,893Form 4
2026-06-25Sato KojiofficerOther acquisition16211,210Form 4
2026-06-25Miyazaki YoichidirectorOther acquisition1329,125Form 4
2026-06-25Imura TakahiroofficerOther acquisition1198,818Form 4
2026-06-25Toyoda AkiodirectorOther acquisition1147,864Form 4
2026-06-25Okamoto ShigeakidirectorAward / grant1111,148Form 4
2026-06-25Ueda TatsuroofficerAward / grant11032,064Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.