Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.38 · now $4.38 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TLYS has typically landed between $3.26 and $5.59 — a range of −25.5% to +27.5% from the issuance price $4.38.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,591 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-05-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.38) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TLYS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.38 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.38 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.23 (-3.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.86–$4.6
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.26–$5.59
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,591 windows spanning 2012-05-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-04-14 | −61.5% | −61.5% | +0.0% |
| 2025-04-11 | −54.9% | −54.9% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-05 | −53.9% | −53.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-10 | +218.4% | +0.0% | +218.4% |
| 2026-03-11 | +209.8% | +0.0% | +209.8% |
| 2026-03-06 | +208.7% | +0.0% | +208.7% |
3,591 overlapping windows · 2012-05-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
57%
+0.5%
n=14
Feb
36%
−2.8%
n=14
Mar
21%
+2.5%
n=14
Apr
43%
+0.0%
n=14
May
43%
−3.3%
n=14
Jun
33%
−0.4%
n=15
Jul
47%
+2.5%
n=15
Aug
73%
+11.0%
n=15
Sep
33%
−3.1%
n=15
Oct
29%
−2.6%
n=14
Nov
57%
+1.9%
n=14
Dec
50%
+7.6%
n=14
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 174,870 @ $4.17 | $730K | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,807,033 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-08 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,100 @ $4.24 | $22K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,801,933 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-04 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 377,129 @ $4.50 | $1.7M | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,036,884 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 34,115 @ $4.52 | $154K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,983,005 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 19,764 @ $4.37 | $86K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,017,120 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,102 @ $4.50 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,981,903 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 863,726 @ $4.67 | $4.0M | −10.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,194,542 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 526,474 @ $4.14 | $2.2M | −7.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,668,068 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 252,725 @ $4.59 | $1.2M | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,415,343 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,330 @ $4.36 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,414,013 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Cingolani Michael Joseph | officer | Sale | 11,250 @ $5.27 | $59K | −9.0% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 113,750 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-20 | Shay Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 20,000 @ $3.70 | $74K | −0.9% of holding | +28.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,315,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Shay Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,025,000 @ $2.55 | $2.6M | −30.5% of holding | +109.2% | +76.3% | 2,335,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Shay Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $1.29 | $32K | +0.7% of holding | +52.6% | +2.3% | 3,360,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Shay Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 35,000 @ $1.42 | $50K | +1.1% of holding | +44.3% | −3.7% | 3,335,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | Shay Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $1.90 | $48K | +0.8% of holding | +2.6% | −27.4% | 3,300,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-29 | Shay Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $1.85 | $46K | +0.8% of holding | −2.8% | −29.1% | 3,275,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Shay Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 50,000 @ $2.03 | $102K | +1.6% of holding | −9.4% | −32.7% | 3,250,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-07 | Shay Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 300 @ $0.25 | $75 | ownership Δ n/a | +10.2% | +20.8% | 300 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Shay Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 59,935 @ $1.45 | $87K | +1.9% of holding | +30.6% | +23.5% | 3,200,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-27 | Shay Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 50,000 @ $1.47 | $73K | +1.6% of holding | +47.9% | +33.5% | 3,117,422 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | Shay Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 22,643 @ $1.25 | $28K | +0.7% of holding | +47.9% | +33.5% | 3,140,065 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-26 | Shay Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $1.30 | $130K | +3.4% of holding | +51.0% | +33.0% | 3,067,422 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Shay Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $1.54 | $154K | +3.5% of holding | −5.6% | +5.2% | 2,967,422 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | Shay Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 75,000 @ $1.27 | $96K | +2.7% of holding | +8.9% | −20.8% | 2,867,422 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | Shay Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,678 @ $1.00 | $16K | +0.6% of holding | +8.9% | −20.8% | 2,792,422 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Shay Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 50,000 @ $0.94 | $47K | +1.8% of holding | +26.2% | +9.3% | 2,776,744 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-27 | Shay Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 50,000 @ $0.86 | $43K | +1.9% of holding | +35.7% | +15.9% | 2,726,744 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Shay Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 44,607 @ $0.85 | $38K | +1.7% of holding | +25.4% | +30.0% | 2,676,744 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-25 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 4,000 @ $1.59 | $6K | +0.2% of holding | −50.1% | −17.4% | 2,261,027 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $1.81 | $45K | +1.1% of holding | −70.5% | −30.8% | 2,257,027 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-11 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $1.88 | $47K | +1.1% of holding | −64.8% | −43.5% | 2,232,027 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-02 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 50,000 @ $2.24 | $112K | +2.3% of holding | −31.9% | −27.9% | 2,207,027 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-01 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $2.22 | $55K | +1.2% of holding | −32.3% | −28.8% | 2,157,027 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $2.27 | $57K | +1.2% of holding | −29.6% | −26.1% | 2,132,027 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-28 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 20,000 @ $2.25 | $45K | +1.0% of holding | −28.1% | −28.8% | 2,107,027 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-26 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,014 @ $2.24 | $22K | +0.5% of holding | −26.2% | −28.0% | 2,087,027 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 115,267 @ $2.39 | $276K | +5.9% of holding | −23.1% | −36.2% | 2,077,013 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-13 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $2.52 | $252K | +5.4% of holding | −21.7% | −48.7% | 1,961,746 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 67,397 @ $3.23 | $217K | +3.8% of holding | −39.9% | −59.0% | 1,861,746 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $3.71 | $93K | +1.4% of holding | −38.3% | −62.4% | 1,794,349 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-06 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,000 @ $3.89 | $39K | +0.6% of holding | −37.9% | −67.7% | 1,769,349 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 50,000 @ $4.03 | $201K | +2.9% of holding | −44.3% | −62.4% | 1,759,349 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-03 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 135,000 @ $3.80 | $513K | +8.6% of holding | −39.1% | −64.3% | 1,709,349 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 110,000 @ $3.77 | $415K | +7.5% of holding | −36.5% | −57.4% | 1,574,349 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,000 @ $3.66 | $55K | +1.0% of holding | −34.0% | −53.1% | 1,464,349 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-21 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,000 @ $3.65 | $55K | +1.0% of holding | −31.9% | −59.2% | 1,449,349 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 35,000 @ $3.78 | $132K | +2.5% of holding | −29.8% | −63.8% | 1,434,349 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 35,000 @ $3.80 | $133K | +2.6% of holding | −30.7% | −64.5% | 1,399,349 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-18 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,000 @ $3.89 | $19K | +0.4% of holding | −29.7% | −66.3% | 1,364,349 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 30,000 @ $3.89 | $117K | +2.3% of holding | −29.5% | −65.3% | 1,359,349 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-12 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 75,000 @ $3.88 | $291K | +6.0% of holding | −30.7% | −70.1% | 1,329,349 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-11 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 65,000 @ $3.96 | $257K | +5.5% of holding | −24.3% | −66.9% | 1,254,349 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 20,000 @ $4.12 | $82K | +1.7% of holding | −13.5% | −75.8% | 1,189,349 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-07 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 40,000 @ $4.23 | $169K | +3.5% of holding | −8.9% | −76.8% | 1,169,349 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-06 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.02 | $40K | +0.9% of holding | −0.6% | −71.6% | 1,129,349 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,000 @ $4.05 | $32K | +0.7% of holding | +7.9% | −67.8% | 1,119,349 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-31 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 55,000 @ $4.35 | $239K | +5.2% of holding | −1.9% | −66.7% | 1,111,349 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,860 @ $4.33 | $47K | +1.0% of holding | −7.5% | −64.5% | 1,056,349 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-29 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,000 @ $4.15 | $62K | +1.5% of holding | −7.2% | −62.5% | 1,045,489 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
20 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Relich Michael | director | Award / grant | 15,444 | 81,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Aragones Teresa Luna | director | Award / grant | 15,444 | 119,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Collier Douglas P | director | Award / grant | 15,444 | 152,511 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | JOHNSON SETH R | director | Award / grant | 15,444 | 174,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | KERR JANET | director | Award / grant | 15,444 | 89,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Cingolani Michael Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Henry Michael | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | SHAKED HEZY | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Smith Nathan Michael | director | Award / grant | 900,000 | 900,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Smith Nathan Michael | director | Disposition | 900,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-03 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 116,611 | 8,058,268 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-08 | Smith Nathan Michael | director | Award / grant | 900,000 | 900,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Collier Douglas P | director | Award / grant | 65,574 | 137,067 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Aragones Teresa Luna | director | Award / grant | 65,574 | 103,666 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | JOHNSON SETH R | director | Award / grant | 65,574 | 158,919 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Relich Michael | director | Award / grant | 65,574 | 65,574 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | KERR JANET | director | Award / grant | 65,574 | 87,837 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-02 | SHAKED HEZY | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-02 | Cingolani Michael Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-02 | Henry Michael | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.