Issued 2026-09-25 at $11.45 · now $11.45 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, TLX has typically landed between $8.89 and $14.36 — a range of −22.3% to +25.4% from the issuance price $11.45.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
445 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-11-14 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($11.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TLX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $11.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.45 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.22 (-2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.18–$12.26
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.89–$14.36
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-07-22 | −32.6% | −33.5% | +0.0% |
| 2025-07-11 | −31.8% | −31.8% | +3.3% |
| 2025-07-21 | −31.5% | −34.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-12 | +42.5% | −0.5% | +42.5% |
| 2026-06-03 | +38.5% | +0.0% | +38.5% |
| 2026-03-11 | +36.5% | +0.0% | +36.5% |
445 overlapping windows · 2024-11-14 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- January 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: PSMA PET Combined With MRI for the Detection of PCa (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- July 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study of TLX101-Tx Plus Standard of Care (SoC) Versus SoC Alone for the Treatment of Patients With Recurrent Glioblastoma (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-08-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Phase 3 Study to Assess Safety and Efficacy of 177Lu-TLX250 in Advanced Relapsed or Recurrent ccRCC (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: The Study of 177Lu-TLX591 Plus SOC Versus SOC Alone in Patients With mCRPC (ProstACT Global) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Smith Darren Charlton | officer | Purchase | 2,071 @ $9.66 | $20K | +17.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,992 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Behrenbruch Christian | director | Purchase | 33,435 @ $14.87 | $497K | +0.2% of holding | −15.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,742,935 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Behrenbruch Christian | director | Purchase | 34,500 @ $14.48 | $500K | +0.2% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,709,500 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
2 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | Smith Darren Charlton | officer | Option exercise | 1,111 | 11,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Smith Darren Charlton | officer | Option exercise | 1,111 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.