Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.08 · now $4.08 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TLS has typically landed between $2.86 and $5.32 — a range of −29.9% to +30.5% from the issuance price $4.08.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,438 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-11-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TLS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.08 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.96 (-2.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.51–$4.41
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.86–$5.32
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,438 windows spanning 2020-11-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-10-25 | −64.9% | −68.1% | +0.8% |
| 2022-10-26 | −64.3% | −67.0% | +4.2% |
| 2022-10-27 | −63.7% | −67.3% | +3.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-08-08 | +171.0% | +0.0% | +176.1% |
| 2025-08-01 | +160.9% | −4.0% | +164.9% |
| 2025-08-06 | +160.5% | −2.1% | +170.4% |
1,438 overlapping windows · 2020-11-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−2.2%
n=6
Feb
0%
−11.3%
n=6
Mar
50%
−6.1%
n=6
Apr
33%
−11.3%
n=6
May
67%
+24.6%
n=6
Jun
33%
−3.7%
n=6
Jul
17%
−6.1%
n=6
Aug
83%
+30.1%
n=6
Sep
17%
−6.5%
n=6
Oct
40%
+1.1%
n=5
Nov
20%
−8.5%
n=5
Dec
50%
+10.7%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Bendza Gary Mark | director | Sale | 25,461 @ $4.33 | $110K | −4.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 511,547 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-09 | Bendza Gary Mark | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $4.55 | $910K | −27.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 537,008 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Robbins Edward Hutchinson Jr. | officer | Sale | 62,398 @ $4.73 | $295K | −9.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 589,915 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Dockery Derrick D. | director | Sale | 12,000 @ $4.43 | $53K | −7.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 156,591 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Dockery Derrick D. | director | Sale | 11,000 @ $4.34 | $48K | −6.1% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 168,591 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Bendza Gary Mark | director | Sale | 80,140 @ $4.41 | $353K | −9.8% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 737,008 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-25 | Bendza Gary Mark | director | Sale | 97,976 @ $4.19 | $411K | −10.7% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 817,148 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Bendza Gary Mark | director | Sale | 71,884 @ $4.36 | $313K | −7.3% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 915,124 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Dockery Derrick D. | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $4.36 | $31K | −3.8% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 179,591 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Jacobs Bradley W. | director | Sale | 55,772 @ $4.31 | $240K | −25.1% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 166,612 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Dockery Derrick D. | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $4.78 | $38K | −4.1% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 186,591 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | Dockery Derrick D. | director | Sale | 18,000 @ $4.14 | $75K | −10.1% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 160,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Dockery Derrick D. | director | Sale | 4,100 @ $4.18 | $17K | −2.2% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 178,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Robbins Edward Hutchinson Jr. | officer | Sale | 64,527 @ $4.02 | $259K | −10.2% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 567,278 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Robbins Edward Hutchinson Jr. | officer | Sale | 37,096 @ $4.01 | $149K | −5.5% of holding | +8.4% | −8.9% | 631,805 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Schaufeld Fredrick | director | Sale | 22,239 @ $6.02 | $134K | −2.3% of holding | −2.1% | −30.9% | 948,718 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-11 | Bendza Gary Mark | director | Sale | 242,337 @ $6.19 | $1.5M | −27.5% of holding | −9.3% | −39.6% | 637,574 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-04 | Wood John B | director | Sale | 150,000 @ $5.58 | $837K | −9.7% of holding | −6.1% | −30.2% | 1,402,018 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Schaufeld Fredrick | director | Sale | 11,078 @ $5.60 | $62K | −53.1% of holding | −6.1% | −30.2% | 9,781 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Wood John B | director | Sale | 150,000 @ $5.59 | $839K | −8.8% of holding | −10.6% | −35.6% | 1,552,018 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Schaufeld Fredrick | director | Sale | 63,743 @ $5.64 | $360K | −75.3% of holding | −10.6% | −35.6% | 20,859 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Schaufeld Fredrick | director | Sale | 81,947 @ $5.75 | $471K | −6.9% of holding | −12.6% | −21.1% | 1,100,957 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Schaufeld Fredrick | director | Sale | 155,794 @ $5.87 | $915K | −11.6% of holding | −13.6% | −30.4% | 1,182,904 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Bendza Gary Mark | director | Sale | 57,663 @ $7.19 | $415K | −6.2% of holding | −3.8% | −45.5% | 879,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Schaufeld Fredrick | director | Sale | 255,449 @ $6.79 | $1.7M | −16.0% of holding | +0.2% | −41.2% | 1,338,698 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-12 | Dockery Derrick D. | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $6.87 | $31K | −2.4% of holding | +0.2% | −41.2% | 182,600 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-05 | Wood John B | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $6.55 | $1.3M | −3.9% of holding | +9.5% | −35.9% | 4,984,365 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-25 | Jacobs Bradley W. | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $6.26 | $157K | −11.7% of holding | +14.2% | −45.0% | 188,293 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-22 | Maluda John W | director | Sale | 52,595 @ $6.60 | $347K | −22.1% of holding | +2.1% | −48.1% | 185,387 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Jacobs Bradley W. | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $5.22 | $313K | −22.0% of holding | +19.1% | −28.3% | 213,293 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-06 | Carroll Bonnie Lynn | director | Sale | 45,555 @ $2.78 | $127K | −23.5% of holding | +8.3% | +88.9% | 148,491 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
139 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Terreri Donald Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,382 | 33,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Maluda John W | director | Award / grant | 34,091 | 219,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Robbins Edward Hutchinson Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 92,225 | 652,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Robbins Edward Hutchinson Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 138,337 | 138,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Schaufeld Fredrick | director | Award / grant | 34,091 | 250,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Wood John B | director | Award / grant | 362,734 | 5,578,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Wood John B | director | Award / grant | 544,101 | 544,101 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Terreri Donald Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 13,288 | 34,865 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Cooke Malcolm G. | officer | Award / grant | 52,787 | 189,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Bendza Gary Mark | director | Award / grant | 123,477 | 987,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Bendza Gary Mark | director | Award / grant | 185,216 | 185,216 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Borland David | director | Award / grant | 34,091 | 227,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Carroll Bonnie Lynn | director | Award / grant | 34,091 | 182,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Cooke Malcolm G. | officer | Award / grant | 19,004 | 19,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Dockery Derrick D. | director | Award / grant | 34,091 | 194,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Griffin Mark D | officer | Award / grant | 106,763 | 1,454,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Griffin Mark D | officer | Award / grant | 160,145 | 160,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Hill Donna K. | officer | Award / grant | 33,001 | 133,320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Hill Donna K. | officer | Award / grant | 12,942 | 12,942 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Jacobs Bradley W. | director | Award / grant | 34,091 | 222,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Bendza Gary Mark | director | Withheld for tax | 98,019 | 863,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Griffin Mark D | officer | Withheld for tax | 77,097 | 1,347,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Robbins Edward Hutchinson Jr. | officer | Withheld for tax | 59,675 | 560,088 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Cooke Malcolm G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,548 | 136,679 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Hill Donna K. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,310 | 100,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Wood John B | director | Withheld for tax | 96,539 | 5,216,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Griffin Mark D | officer | Withheld for tax | 51,286 | 1,424,587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Robbins Edward Hutchinson Jr. | officer | Withheld for tax | 50,529 | 619,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Bendza Gary Mark | director | Withheld for tax | 49,477 | 961,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Cooke Malcolm G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,069 | 139,227 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Terreri Donald Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,587 | 21,577 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Hill Donna K. | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,210 | 102,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Hill Donna K. | officer | Award / grant | 39,243 | 114,839 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Terreri Donald Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 24,973 | 34,164 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Griffin Mark D | officer | Award / grant | 113,716 | 1,475,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Robbins Edward Hutchinson Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 103,014 | 670,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Cooke Malcolm G. | officer | Award / grant | 42,811 | 152,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Bendza Gary Mark | director | Award / grant | 109,703 | 1,011,027 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Wood John B | director | Award / grant | 214,054 | 5,312,767 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Wood John B | director | Withheld for tax | 437,581 | 5,098,713 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.