TLRY · TickerCove

TLRYTilray Brands, Inc.Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Genericas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.93 · now $3.93 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TLRY has typically landed between $2.71 and $5.71 — a range of −31.1% to +45.2% from the issuance price $3.93.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,029 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-07-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.93) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$3.93 · 0% of range

$3.88 low$21 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−7.5%

typical move · IQR 25.1%

−31.1%worst (p90)+45.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where TLRY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.93 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $3.93 (+0.0%)
typical $3.64 (-7.5%)
middle 50% $3.14–$4.13
90% range $2.71–$5.71

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,029 windows spanning 2018-07-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−85.6%	−85.6%	+13.3%
2020-02-14	−83.3%	−83.3%	+11.4%
2020-02-13	−81.1%	−81.1%	+20.1%
3 best
2018-08-20	+496.3%	+0.0%	+496.3%
2021-01-11	+418.3%	+0.0%	+418.3%
2018-08-17	+405.0%	+0.0%	+405.0%

2,029 overlapping windows · 2018-07-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+10.2%

n=8

Feb

50%

−2.8%

n=8

Mar

25%

−5.9%

n=8

Apr

13%

−12.1%

n=8

May

13%

−12.8%

n=8

Jun

25%

−7.9%

n=8

Jul

75%

+14.4%

n=8

Aug

56%

+31.8%

n=9

Sep

33%

+4.3%

n=9

Oct

25%

−5.1%

n=8

Nov

38%

−1.0%

n=8

Dec

25%

−9.6%

n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-06	Gendel Mitchell	officer	Purchase	2,500 @ $4.43	$11K	+2.0% of holding	+1.1%	not yet — horizon still open	124,883	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04	Merton Carl A	officer	Purchase	10,000 @ $4.62	$46K	+7.7% of holding	−1.8%	not yet — horizon still open	139,753	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-03	FALTISCHEK DENISE M	officer	Purchase	2,500 @ $4.78	$12K	+1.8% of holding	−3.6%	not yet — horizon still open	141,285	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-21	Hopkinson David G.	director	Sale	33,556 @ $6.94	$233K	−100.0% of holding	−26.8%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-31	Gendel Mitchell	officer	Purchase	6,000 @ $0.58	$3K	+0.9% of holding	+135.5%	+17.4%	698,287	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-30	SIMON IRWIN D	director	Purchase	165,000 @ $0.61	$100K	+4.4% of holding	+137.9%	+12.2%	3,941,633	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-30	Merton Carl A	officer	Purchase	33,500 @ $0.60	$20K	+4.4% of holding	+137.9%	+12.2%	798,069	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

135 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-26	SIMON IRWIN D	director	Withheld for tax	425,889	1,309,031	Form 4
2026-08-26	SIMON IRWIN D	director	Withheld for tax	216,561	931,357	Form 4
2026-08-26	FALTISCHEK DENISE M	officer	Withheld for tax	63,610	225,047	Form 4
2026-08-26	Merton Carl A	officer	Withheld for tax	61,090	215,556	Form 4
2026-08-26	Gendel Mitchell	officer	Withheld for tax	58,167	200,225	Form 4
2026-08-26	Merton Carl A	officer	Withheld for tax	31,559	165,574	Form 4
2026-08-26	FALTISCHEK DENISE M	officer	Withheld for tax	30,849	168,640	Form 4
2026-08-26	Gendel Mitchell	officer	Withheld for tax	26,795	148,644	Form 4
2026-08-26	Gendel Mitchell	officer	Option exercise	109,748	258,392	Form 4
2026-08-26	FALTISCHEK DENISE M	officer	Option exercise	58,204	0	Form 4
2026-08-26	FALTISCHEK DENISE M	officer	Option exercise	120,017	0	Form 4
2026-08-26	Gendel Mitchell	officer	Option exercise	50,556	175,439	Form 4
2026-08-26	Merton Carl A	officer	Option exercise	57,380	0	Form 4
2026-08-26	Merton Carl A	officer	Option exercise	111,072	0	Form 4
2026-08-26	SIMON IRWIN D	director	Option exercise	408,605	1,147,918	Form 4
2026-08-26	FALTISCHEK DENISE M	officer	Option exercise	120,017	288,657	Form 4
2026-08-26	SIMON IRWIN D	director	Option exercise	803,563	1,734,920	Form 4
2026-08-26	SIMON IRWIN D	director	Option exercise	408,605	0	Form 4
2026-08-26	SIMON IRWIN D	director	Option exercise	803,563	0	Form 4
2026-08-26	Gendel Mitchell	officer	Option exercise	50,556	0	Form 4
2026-08-26	Gendel Mitchell	officer	Option exercise	109,748	0	Form 4
2026-08-26	Merton Carl A	officer	Option exercise	57,380	197,133	Form 4
2026-08-26	Merton Carl A	officer	Option exercise	111,072	276,646	Form 4
2026-08-26	FALTISCHEK DENISE M	officer	Option exercise	58,204	199,489	Form 4
2026-07-30	SIMON IRWIN D	director	Withheld for tax	62,353	739,313	Form 4
2026-07-30	FALTISCHEK DENISE M	officer	Withheld for tax	13,844	138,785	Form 4
2026-07-30	Gendel Mitchell	officer	Withheld for tax	12,921	122,383	Form 4
2026-07-30	Merton Carl A	officer	Withheld for tax	9,161	129,753	Form 4
2026-07-30	SIMON IRWIN D	director	Option exercise	117,647	801,666	Form 4
2026-07-30	Gendel Mitchell	officer	Option exercise	24,379	135,304	Form 4
2026-07-30	SIMON IRWIN D	director	Option exercise	117,647	0	Form 4
2026-07-30	FALTISCHEK DENISE M	officer	Option exercise	26,120	152,629	Form 4
2026-07-30	Gendel Mitchell	officer	Option exercise	24,379	0	Form 4
2026-07-30	Merton Carl A	officer	Option exercise	16,656	138,914	Form 4
2026-07-30	Herhalt Johann Michael	director	Award / grant	62,657	62,657	Form 4
2026-07-30	Hopkinson David G.	director	Award / grant	62,657	62,657	Form 4
2026-07-30	FALTISCHEK DENISE M	officer	Option exercise	26,120	0	Form 4
2026-07-30	Merton Carl A	officer	Option exercise	16,656	0	Form 4
2026-07-30	Looney Thomas P.	director	Award / grant	62,657	62,657	Form 4
2026-07-29	SIMON IRWIN D	director	Withheld for tax	227,078	684,019	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i