TLPH · TickerCove

TLPHTalphera, Inc.Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Genericas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.19 · now $1.19 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TLPH has typically landed between $0.80 and $1.64 — a range of −32.6% to +38.1% from the issuance price $1.19.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,899 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-02-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.19) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$1.19 · 63% of range

$0.7223 low$1.47 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−8.3%

typical move · IQR 22.4%

−32.6%worst (p90)+38.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where TLPH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.19 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $1.19 (+0.0%)
typical $1.09 (-8.3%)
middle 50% $0.9576–$1.22
90% range $0.8015–$1.64

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,899 windows spanning 2011-02-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2017-10-02	−65.5%	−68.2%	+0.0%
2017-10-10	−64.5%	−68.2%	+0.0%
2017-10-03	−63.6%	−68.2%	+0.0%
3 best
2025-08-12	+136.9%	+0.0%	+136.9%
2025-08-15	+130.4%	+0.0%	+134.1%
2025-08-14	+128.1%	−1.0%	+131.8%

3,899 overlapping windows · 2011-02-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

53%

+11.5%

n=15

Feb

40%

+0.1%

n=15

Mar

38%

−11.6%

n=16

Apr

56%

+3.1%

n=16

May

44%

+4.9%

n=16

Jun

44%

+0.7%

n=16

Jul

38%

+3.4%

n=16

Aug

50%

+1.8%

n=16

Sep

44%

+1.1%

n=16

Oct

40%

−4.7%

n=15

Nov

53%

+6.8%

n=15

Dec

20%

−11.3%

n=15

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-03-13	Angotti Vincent J.	director	Purchase	213,310 @ $0.59	$125K	+36.3% of holding	+1.2%	+40.1%	800,705	Form 4 · filed 12 days after the trade
2026-02-12	Angotti Vincent J.	director	Purchase	105,364 @ $0.81	$86K	+21.9% of holding	−0.6%	+36.9%	586,954	Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade
2026-02-12	ASADORIAN RAFFI	officer	Purchase	45,000 @ $0.81	$37K	+97.3% of holding	−0.6%	+36.9%	91,256	Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade
2026-02-12	Aslam Shakil	officer	Purchase	35,000 @ $0.81	$28K	+72.6% of holding	−0.6%	+36.9%	83,178	Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade
2026-02-12	Dasu Badri N	officer	Purchase	35,000 @ $0.81	$28K	+84.9% of holding	−0.6%	+36.9%	76,230	Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade
2025-04-02	Angotti Vincent J.	director	Purchase	213,310 @ $0.59	$125K	+112.0% of holding	−8.6%	+42.2%	403,769	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-05	Angotti Vincent J.	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $0.64	$3K	+2.5% of holding	−3.8%	−25.5%	208,066	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-06-14	Aslam Shakil	officer	Purchase	5,000 @ $1.07	$5K	+15.3% of holding	−16.1%	−50.7%	37,695	Form 4 · filed 257 days after the trade
2024-06-13	Aslam Shakil	officer	Purchase	695 @ $0.98	$681	+2.2% of holding	−11.6%	−45.1%	32,695	Form 4 · filed 258 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

63 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-22	ADAMS ADRIAN	director	Award / grant	30,700	30,700	Form 4
2026-06-22	Bozilenko Marina	director	Award / grant	5,100	14,147	Form 4
2026-06-22	Bozilenko Marina	director	Award / grant	30,700	30,700	Form 4
2026-06-22	Broadfoot Jill Marie	director	Award / grant	5,100	13,647	Form 4
2026-06-22	Broadfoot Jill Marie	director	Award / grant	30,700	30,700	Form 4
2026-06-22	HOFFMAN STEPHEN J	director	Award / grant	5,100	13,959	Form 4
2026-06-22	HOFFMAN STEPHEN J	director	Award / grant	30,700	30,700	Form 4
2026-06-22	JAIN ABHINAV	director	Award / grant	5,100	12,412	Form 4
2026-06-22	JAIN ABHINAV	director	Award / grant	30,700	30,700	Form 4
2026-06-22	WAN MARK A	director	Award / grant	5,100	13,959	Form 4
2026-06-22	ADAMS ADRIAN	director	Award / grant	5,100	22,709	Form 4
2026-06-22	WAN MARK A	director	Award / grant	30,700	30,700	Form 4
2026-06-22	Todisco Joseph	director	Award / grant	5,100	11,497	Form 4
2026-06-22	Todisco Joseph	director	Award / grant	30,700	30,700	Form 4
2026-05-20	Aslam Shakil	officer	Withheld for tax	4,518	76,542	Form 4
2026-04-02	Angotti Vincent J.	director	Withheld for tax	9,938	790,767	Form 4
2026-04-02	ASADORIAN RAFFI	officer	Withheld for tax	2,444	85,879	Form 4
2026-04-02	Dasu Badri N	officer	Withheld for tax	2,444	71,440	Form 4
2026-04-02	Aslam Shakil	officer	Withheld for tax	2,118	81,060	Form 4
2026-03-13	Nantahala Capital Management, LLC	other	Award / grant	4,266,211	18,822,267	Form 4
2026-02-14	Angotti Vincent J.	director	Withheld for tax	9,559	577,395	Form 4
2026-02-14	ASADORIAN RAFFI	officer	Withheld for tax	2,933	88,323	Form 4
2026-02-14	Dasu Badri N	officer	Withheld for tax	2,346	73,884	Form 4
2026-02-12	Dasu Badri N	officer	Award / grant	200,000	200,000	Form 4
2026-02-12	ASADORIAN RAFFI	officer	Award / grant	260,000	260,000	Form 4
2026-02-12	Angotti Vincent J.	director	Award / grant	594,000	594,000	Form 4
2026-02-12	Aslam Shakil	officer	Award / grant	205,000	205,000	Form 4
2026-02-10	Angotti Vincent J.	director	Withheld for tax	3,179	481,590	Form 4
2026-02-10	ASADORIAN RAFFI	officer	Withheld for tax	958	46,256	Form 4
2026-02-10	Dasu Badri N	officer	Withheld for tax	781	41,230	Form 4
2025-10-23	HOFFMAN STEPHEN J	director	Award / grant	4,267	8,859	Form 4
2025-10-23	WAN MARK A	director	Award / grant	4,267	8,859	Form 4
2025-10-23	WAN MARK A	director	Award / grant	25,600	25,600	Form 4
2025-10-23	ADAMS ADRIAN	director	Award / grant	4,267	17,609	Form 4
2025-10-23	ADAMS ADRIAN	director	Award / grant	25,600	25,600	Form 4
2025-10-23	Broadfoot Jill Marie	director	Award / grant	4,267	8,547	Form 4
2025-10-23	Broadfoot Jill Marie	director	Award / grant	25,600	25,600	Form 4
2025-10-23	Bozilenko Marina	director	Award / grant	4,267	9,047	Form 4
2025-10-23	Bozilenko Marina	director	Award / grant	25,600	25,600	Form 4
2025-10-23	JAIN ABHINAV	director	Award / grant	25,600	25,600	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i