TLNTalen Energy CorporationUtilities · Independent Power Producersas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $287.60 · now $287.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TLN has typically landed between $242.06 and $361.47 — a range of −15.8% to +25.7% from the issuance price $287.60.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

804 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-06-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($287.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TLN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $287.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$242.06worst · -15.8%$361.47best · +25.7%
  • now $287.6 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $302.71 (+5.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $280.44–$324.99
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $242.06–$361.47
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 804 windows spanning 2023-06-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-02-06−30.6%−30.6%+4.8%
2025-02-07−26.0%−30.6%+4.9%
2025-02-05−25.3%−25.3%+6.2%
3 best
2025-07-16+43.7%−0.3%+47.5%
2025-07-17+43.1%+0.0%+48.0%
2025-07-15+41.8%−1.5%+45.7%

804 overlapping windows · 2023-06-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+2.2%
n=3
Feb
67%
+4.3%
n=3
Mar
33%
+2.7%
n=3
Apr
100%
+10.1%
n=3
May
100%
+10.8%
n=3
Jun
33%
+5.0%
n=3
Jul
75%
+9.3%
n=4
Aug
75%
+2.7%
n=4
Sep
50%
+6.1%
n=4
Oct
67%
−1.4%
n=3
Nov
67%
+8.4%
n=3
Dec
33%
+0.2%
n=3

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$446$2822026-06-15: 1 insider sale, $988K — ABBAS GIZMAN I2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $988K↑ buys↓ salesdirector ABBAS GIZMAN I — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-15ABBAS GIZMAN IdirectorSale2,600 @ $380.00$988K−49.9% of holding−4.4%not yet — horizon still open2,606Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-27Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale76,545 @ $296.38$22.7M−1.3% of holding+18.0%+16.2%5,762,010Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-27Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale51,810 @ $295.62$15.3M−0.9% of holding+18.0%+16.2%5,838,555Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-27Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale25,903 @ $297.70$7.7M−0.4% of holding+18.0%+16.2%5,736,107Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-27Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale12,290 @ $294.65$3.6M−0.2% of holding+18.0%+16.2%5,890,365Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-27Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale7,950 @ $292.82$2.3M−0.1% of holding+18.0%+16.2%5,905,020Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-27Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale2,365 @ $293.34$694K−0.0% of holding+18.0%+16.2%5,902,655Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-27Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale1,137 @ $298.14$339K−0.0% of holding+18.0%+16.2%5,734,970Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-26Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale33,121 @ $292.19$9.7M−0.6% of holding+19.0%+18.2%5,945,994Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-26Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale32,924 @ $293.34$9.7M−0.6% of holding+19.0%+18.2%5,913,070Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-26Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale18,927 @ $290.19$5.5M−0.3% of holding+19.0%+18.2%5,994,939Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-26Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale15,824 @ $291.08$4.6M−0.3% of holding+19.0%+18.2%5,979,115Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-26Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale1,321 @ $289.46$382K−0.0% of holding+19.0%+18.2%6,013,866Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-26Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale100 @ $294.00$29K−0.0% of holding+19.0%+18.2%5,912,970Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-25Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale44,343 @ $288.55$12.8M−0.7% of holding+15.4%+18.2%6,079,157Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-25Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale21,552 @ $293.63$6.3M−0.4% of holding+15.4%+18.2%6,034,217Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-25Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale16,759 @ $292.50$4.9M−0.3% of holding+15.4%+18.2%6,055,769Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-25Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale13,973 @ $294.47$4.1M−0.2% of holding+15.4%+18.2%6,020,244Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-25Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale6,429 @ $289.25$1.9M−0.1% of holding+15.4%+18.2%6,072,728Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-25Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale4,957 @ $295.18$1.5M−0.1% of holding+15.4%+18.2%6,015,287Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-25Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale200 @ $290.49$58K−0.0% of holding+15.4%+18.2%6,072,528Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-25Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale100 @ $297.14$30K−0.0% of holding+15.4%+18.2%6,015,187Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-06Horton Anthony RdirectorPurchase500 @ $190.90$95K+100.0% of holding+8.1%+101.9%1,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Horton Anthony RdirectorPurchase250 @ $192.59$48K+100.0% of holding+8.1%+101.9%500Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Horton Anthony RdirectorPurchase250 @ $187.96$47Kownership Δ n/a+8.1%+101.9%250Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-13Rubric Capital Management LPtenPercentOwnerSale4,893,507 @ $204.35$1000.0M−43.0% of holding+14.6%+40.5%6,475,107Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

211 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-15Nutt Terry LofficerWithheld for tax3,27172,865Form 4
2026-07-15Nutt Terry LofficerOption exercise20,7800Form 4
2026-07-15Nutt Terry LofficerOption exercise8,31276,136Form 4
2026-07-15Nutt Terry LofficerOption exercise8,31276,136Form 4
2026-06-08McFarland Mark AllendirectorOther acquisition260,335117Form 4
2026-06-08McFarland Mark AllendirectorOther acquisition260,335260,335Form 4
2026-05-22McFarland Mark AllendirectorWithheld for tax139,641260,452Form 4
2026-05-22Berryman BradofficerWithheld for tax43,04767,729Form 4
2026-05-22Wright Andrew MofficerWithheld for tax37,59470,200Form 4
2026-05-22Nutt Terry LofficerWithheld for tax35,74167,761Form 4
2026-05-22Lebsack Dale E Jr.officerWithheld for tax33,69262,927Form 4
2026-05-22Muller ColeofficerWithheld for tax27,33942,968Form 4
2026-05-22Morice Christopher EofficerWithheld for tax26,37849,174Form 4
2026-05-22SCHAEFER STEPHENdirectorDisposition6,78919,825Form 4
2026-05-22Olagues Darren JofficerWithheld for tax2,9114,601Form 4
2026-05-22Casulli Edward T.officerWithheld for tax2,7747,205Form 4
2026-05-22Plagens Anthony JofficerWithheld for tax2,2316,874Form 4
2026-05-22Hyde Karen TdirectorDisposition1,5305,206Form 4
2026-05-22ABBAS GIZMAN IdirectorDisposition1,5305,206Form 4
2026-05-22Nigro JosephdirectorDisposition1,5305,206Form 4
2026-05-22Lebsack Dale E Jr.officerOption exercise196,1000Form 4
2026-05-22SCHAEFER STEPHENdirectorOption exercise45,8730Form 4
2026-05-22SCHAEFER STEPHENdirectorOption exercise4,1330Form 4
2026-05-22McFarland Mark AllendirectorOption exercise74,3810Form 4
2026-05-22McFarland Mark AllendirectorOption exercise812,7820Form 4
2026-05-22Berryman BradofficerOption exercise20,7800Form 4
2026-05-22Berryman BradofficerOption exercise227,0640Form 4
2026-05-22Morice Christopher EofficerOption exercise14,0500Form 4
2026-05-22Morice Christopher EofficerOption exercise153,5270Form 4
2026-05-22Plagens Anthony JofficerOption exercise8,5020Form 4
2026-05-22Plagens Anthony JofficerOption exercise5,6680Form 4
2026-05-22Muller ColeofficerOption exercise13,1760Form 4
2026-05-22Muller ColeofficerOption exercise143,9790Form 4
2026-05-22Horton Anthony RdirectorOption exercise4,1330Form 4
2026-05-22Wright Andrew MofficerOption exercise20,0240Form 4
2026-05-22Wright Andrew MofficerOption exercise218,8080Form 4
2026-05-22Nutt Terry LofficerOption exercise227,0640Form 4
2026-05-22Nigro JosephdirectorOption exercise4,1330Form 4
2026-05-22Casulli Edward T.officerOption exercise6,3760Form 4
2026-05-22Olagues Darren JofficerOption exercise18,4870Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.