TKRThe Timken Companyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $116.70 · now $116.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TKR has typically landed between $102.50 and $133.94 — a range of −12.2% to +14.8% from the issuance price $116.70.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($116.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TKR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $116.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$102.5worst · -12.2%$133.94best · +14.8%
  • now $116.7 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $118.59 (+1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $111.38–$125.8
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $102.5–$133.94
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−54.4%−54.4%+0.0%
2008-09-25−51.9%−51.9%+5.3%
2020-02-21−51.4%−53.3%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-06+57.2%+0.0%+57.2%
2008-11-20+54.5%+0.0%+62.9%
2008-12-04+54.1%+0.0%+54.1%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+3.0%
n=18
Feb
79%
+2.5%
n=19
Mar
53%
+0.1%
n=19
Apr
68%
+4.9%
n=19
May
58%
+0.6%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.1%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.4%
n=19
Aug
32%
−2.0%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.3%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.9%
n=18
Nov
78%
+5.0%
n=18
Dec
56%
+2.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$145$702026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — Kyle Richard G2026-06-05: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Rajendra Ajita G2026-05-27: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Kyle Richard G2026-05-08: 2 insider sales, $6.1M — Kyle Richard G, TIMKEN JOHN M JR2026-02-24: 1 insider sale, $168K — Discenza Michael Anthony2026-02-20: 2 insider sales, $2.1M — Kyle Richard G …2026-02-19: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Kyle Richard G2026-02-09: 1 insider sale, $270K — Patel Hansal N.2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $3.2M — Kyle Richard G2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Kyle Richard G2025-08-27: 1 insider sale, $385K — Patel Hansal N.2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $385K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $1.3M2026-02: 6 open-market sales, $6.8M2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $7.2M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $1.1M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $1.7M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Kyle Richard G — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Rajendra Ajita G — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Kyle Richard G — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kyle Richard G — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradedirector TIMKEN JOHN M JR — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Discenza Michael Anthony — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kyle Richard G — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Kyle Richard G — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Kyle Richard G — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Patel Hansal N. — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kyle Richard G — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Kyle Richard G — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Patel Hansal N. — Sale on 2025-08-27, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Kyle Richard GdirectorSale13,637 @ $126.63$1.7M−6.9% of holding−4.6%not yet — horizon still open183,724Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-05Rajendra Ajita GdirectorSale8,450 @ $131.34$1.1M−29.5% of holding+2.8%not yet — horizon still open20,225Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-27Kyle Richard GdirectorSale8,448 @ $127.35$1.1M−4.1% of holding+13.7%not yet — horizon still open197,361Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-08Kyle Richard GdirectorSale37,181 @ $117.34$4.4M−15.3% of holding+16.7%not yet — horizon still open206,455Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-08TIMKEN JOHN M JRdirectorSale15,000 @ $116.51$1.7M−5.4% of holding+16.7%not yet — horizon still open264,744Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-24Discenza Michael AnthonyofficerSale1,532 @ $109.59$168K−7.9% of holding−2.8%−2.4%17,877Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-20Kyle Richard GdirectorSale14,372 @ $108.22$1.6M−5.5% of holding−3.5%−0.4%248,900Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20Kyle Richard GdirectorSale5,264 @ $107.35$565K−2.1% of holding−3.5%−0.4%243,636Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19Kyle Richard GdirectorSale10,000 @ $106.72$1.1M−3.7% of holding−5.8%+3.9%263,272Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-09Patel Hansal N.officerSale2,500 @ $108.01$270K−10.7% of holding−2.3%+3.4%20,835Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-06Kyle Richard GdirectorSale30,206 @ $106.52$3.2M−11.3% of holding−1.4%+8.2%236,090Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-25Kyle Richard GdirectorSale15,837 @ $81.03$1.3M−5.6% of holding+4.0%+45.9%266,942Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27Patel Hansal N.officerSale4,869 @ $79.15$385K−17.8% of holding−7.0%+31.5%22,561Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-25Kyle Richard GdirectorSale15,000 @ $79.20$1.2M−8.5% of holding−0.9%−9.1%160,649Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-21Kyle Richard GdirectorSale10,380 @ $83.15$863K−5.6% of holding−1.7%−9.6%175,649Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-19Kyle Richard GdirectorSale10,000 @ $82.75$828K−5.1% of holding−2.1%−12.3%186,029Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Kyle Richard GdirectorSale17,001 @ $82.50$1.4M−8.0% of holding−1.9%−11.8%196,029Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Fracassa Philip D.directorSale5,000 @ $83.40$417K−4.7% of holding−1.9%−11.8%101,483Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Patel Hansal N.officerSale2,500 @ $83.83$210K−8.4% of holding−1.9%−11.8%27,430Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-07Fracassa Philip D.directorSale5,000 @ $81.50$408K−5.2% of holding−0.9%−15.1%90,541Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

244 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01BOLDEA LUCIANdirectorWithheld for tax12,75017,536Form 4
2026-09-01BOLDEA LUCIANdirectorWithheld for tax3,33322,121Form 4
2026-09-01Ribaudo Stephen PhilipofficerAward / grant8,9258,925Form 4
2026-09-01BOLDEA LUCIANdirectorAward / grant7,91825,454Form 4
2026-09-01Ribaudo Stephen PhilipofficerAward / grant5,9505,950Form 4
2026-09-01Ribaudo Stephen PhilipofficerAward / grant8,2758,275Form 4
2026-09-01BOLDEA LUCIANdirectorAward / grant30,28630,286Form 4
2026-05-18Kyle Richard GdirectorGift646205,809Form 4
2026-05-08Rajendra Ajita GdirectorAward / grant1,2801,280Form 4
2026-05-08RYAN KIMBERLY KdirectorAward / grant1,2801,280Form 4
2026-05-08Harrell Elizabeth AnndirectorAward / grant1,2801,280Form 4
2026-05-08Lauber Sarah CdirectorAward / grant1,2801,280Form 4
2026-05-08Leombruno Todd M.directorAward / grant1,2801,280Form 4
2026-05-08MAPES CHRISTOPHER LdirectorAward / grant1,2801,280Form 4
2026-05-08Crowe Maria AdirectorAward / grant1,2801,280Form 4
2026-05-08TIMKEN JOHN M JRdirectorAward / grant1,2801,280Form 4
2026-05-08TIMKEN WARD J JRdirectorAward / grant1,2801,280Form 4
2026-05-08SULLIVAN FRANK CdirectorAward / grant1,2801,280Form 4
2026-05-08Kyle Richard GdirectorAward / grant1,2801,280Form 4
2026-05-02Leombruno Todd M.directorAward / grant2,2702,270Form 4
2026-05-02Crowe Maria AdirectorAward / grant2,27029,936Form 4
2026-05-02Harrell Elizabeth AnndirectorAward / grant2,27020,294Form 4
2026-05-02Lauber Sarah CdirectorAward / grant2,27011,425Form 4
2026-05-02MAPES CHRISTOPHER LdirectorAward / grant2,27030,585Form 4
2026-05-02TIMKEN JOHN M JRdirectorAward / grant2,270279,744Form 4
2026-05-02TIMKEN WARD J JRdirectorAward / grant2,270268,636Form 4
2026-05-02RYAN KIMBERLY KdirectorAward / grant2,2702,270Form 4
2026-05-02Rajendra Ajita GdirectorAward / grant2,27028,675Form 4
2026-05-02SULLIVAN FRANK CdirectorAward / grant2,27069,467Form 4
2026-03-13TIMKEN WARD J JRdirectorGift10,00010,000Form 4
2026-03-13TIMKEN WARD J JRdirectorGift10,000310Form 4
2026-03-12TIMKEN WARD J JRdirectorGift52,00052,000Form 4
2026-03-12TIMKEN WARD J JRdirectorGift7,50010,310Form 4
2026-03-12TIMKEN WARD J JRdirectorGift7,500266,366Form 4
2026-03-12TIMKEN WARD J JRdirectorGift52,000273,866Form 4
2026-02-24Discenza Michael AnthonyofficerOption exercise1,82519,702Form 4
2026-02-24Discenza Michael AnthonyofficerWithheld for tax29319,409Form 4
2026-02-24Discenza Michael AnthonyofficerOption exercise1,8250Form 4
2026-02-13Patel Hansal N.officerWithheld for tax55227,352Form 4
2026-02-13Pollock NatashaofficerWithheld for tax24017,913Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-29$100–250K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-29$100–250K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-11$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-09-162024-08-26$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-09-162024-08-26$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2023-12-092023-11-17$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2023-12-092023-11-17$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2023-12-092023-11-01$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2023-12-092023-11-01$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2023-11-132023-09-29$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2023-11-132023-09-29$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousesale2018-11-092018-10-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-08-102018-07-24$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.