Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.11 · now $7.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TKNO has typically landed between $4.57 and $10.54 — a range of −35.7% to +48.2% from the issuance price $7.11.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,291 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-06-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TKNO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $7.11 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.86 (-3.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.65–$8.07
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.57–$10.54
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-03-08 | −50.7% | −50.7% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-09 | −50.1% | −50.1% | +0.0% |
| 2023-03-09 | −49.7% | −49.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-07-11 | +242.7% | +0.0% | +242.7% |
| 2024-07-10 | +223.0% | +0.0% | +234.4% |
| 2024-07-08 | +221.5% | +0.0% | +237.2% |
1,291 overlapping windows · 2021-06-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Lowell Matthew | officer | Purchase | 40,000 @ $2.19 | $88K | +31.2% of holding | +39.1% | +212.8% | 168,376 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Gunstream Stephen | director | Purchase | 26,000 @ $2.15 | $56K | +10.7% of holding | +39.1% | +212.8% | 269,497 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | DEMSKI MARTHA J | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $5.06 | $41K | −40.0% of holding | −9.6% | −33.8% | 12,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
15 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | DEMSKI MARTHA J | director | Other acquisition | 12,000 | 12,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | DEMSKI MARTHA J | director | Other acquisition | 12,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Vos Alexander | director | Award / grant | 55,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | ROBERTSON BRETT | director | Award / grant | 55,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | DEMSKI MARTHA J | director | Award / grant | 55,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Lowell Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 171,000 | 171,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Gunstream Stephen | director | Award / grant | 429,000 | 429,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Terrill Damon | officer | Award / grant | 148,000 | 148,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-17 | DEMSKI MARTHA J | director | Award / grant | 54,300 | 74,300 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-17 | ROBERTSON BRETT | director | Award / grant | 54,300 | 102,472 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-17 | Vos Alexander | director | Award / grant | 54,300 | 102,472 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | ROBERTSON BRETT | director | Other acquisition | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-14 | Gunstream Stephen | director | Award / grant | 393,663 | 393,663 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-14 | Terrill Damon | officer | Award / grant | 137,808 | 137,808 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-14 | Lowell Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 169,857 | 169,857 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.