Issued 2026-09-16 at $122.84 · now $122.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TJX has typically landed between $112.31 and $135.42 — a range of −8.6% to +10.2% from the issuance price $122.84.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($122.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TJX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $122.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $122.84 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $124.7 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $120.37–$129.03
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $112.31–$135.42
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −41.9% | −41.9% | +1.1% |
| 2020-02-20 | −41.5% | −41.5% | +0.2% |
| 2020-02-18 | −35.6% | −35.6% | +0.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-10-30 | +27.7% | +0.0% | +27.7% |
| 2020-03-23 | +26.1% | +0.0% | +36.6% |
| 2020-11-02 | +25.6% | +0.0% | +25.6% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$170.3B
market cap
$5.15
EPS (TTM)
29.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-19
next earnings
Revenue$60.4B
'21'26
Net income$5.5B
'21'26
Free cash flow$4.9B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr9.1%
'21'26
ROE · by yr53.9%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr1.32
'21'26
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$95.53
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$122.68
- Analyst target · range $160.00–$197.00$187.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$122.84
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+0.5%
n=18
Feb
84%
+3.8%
n=19
Mar
63%
+0.8%
n=19
Apr
63%
+1.7%
n=19
May
47%
+0.7%
n=19
Jun
42%
+0.0%
n=19
Jul
89%
+3.8%
n=19
Aug
74%
+2.9%
n=19
Sep
58%
−0.3%
n=19
Oct
44%
+0.1%
n=18
Nov
78%
+4.4%
n=18
Dec
50%
−0.2%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Nemerov Jackwyn | director | Sale | 957 @ $168.59 | $161K | −54.4% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 802 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Benjamin Peter | officer | Sale | 10,926 @ $165.00 | $1.8M | −8.5% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,267 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | MEYROWITZ CAROL | director | Sale | 55,624 @ $163.65 | $9.1M | −21.6% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 201,496 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Herrman Ernie | director | Sale | 10,002 @ $160.68 | $1.6M | −1.9% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 514,848 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Klinger John | officer | Sale | 6,235 @ $160.77 | $1.0M | −8.8% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,257 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-04 | Herrman Ernie | director | Sale | 28,000 @ $158.32 | $4.4M | −5.1% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 524,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Canestrari Kenneth | officer | Sale | 31,447 @ $157.50 | $5.0M | −22.6% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 107,781 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Herrman Ernie | director | Sale | 29,549 @ $157.46 | $4.7M | −5.1% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 552,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Herrman Ernie | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $160.95 | $4.8M | −5.9% of holding | +4.8% | −28.3% | 479,316 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Herrman Ernie | director | Sale | 24,363 @ $151.31 | $3.7M | −4.6% of holding | −1.7% | −10.2% | 510,780 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | LANE AMY B | director | Sale | 500 @ $151.40 | $76K | −2.2% of holding | −1.7% | −10.2% | 22,212 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-20 | Herrman Ernie | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $148.81 | $4.5M | −5.3% of holding | +0.5% | −7.7% | 535,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Benjamin Peter | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $139.23 | $209K | −1.0% of holding | −2.1% | +9.0% | 150,855 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Nemerov Jackwyn | director | Sale | 1,192 @ $138.00 | $164K | −55.5% of holding | −0.5% | +9.8% | 957 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | LANE AMY B | director | Sale | 950 @ $128.09 | $122K | −4.0% of holding | −7.0% | +2.8% | 22,712 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Benjamin Peter | officer | Sale | 4,123 @ $129.77 | $535K | −2.6% of holding | −8.2% | +2.4% | 152,355 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | Herrman Ernie | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $116.54 | $1.7M | −3.1% of holding | +15.5% | +2.6% | 469,189 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | Herrman Ernie | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $116.56 | $350K | −0.6% of holding | +15.5% | +2.6% | 466,189 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Herrman Ernie | director | Sale | 23,428 @ $123.03 | $2.9M | −4.6% of holding | +9.6% | +3.4% | 484,189 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | BENNETT ALAN M | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $123.53 | $988K | −100.0% of holding | +0.5% | +0.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Herrman Ernie | director | Sale | 7,533 @ $126.18 | $951K | −1.5% of holding | −1.9% | +0.7% | 509,466 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2022-03-03 | LANE AMY B | director | Purchase | 22 @ $66.13 | $1K | +0.1% of holding | −11.6% | +6.5% | 29,007 | Form 4 · filed 1433 days after the trade |
| 2022-03-03 | LANE AMY B | director | Purchase | 2 @ $66.13 | $119 | +0.4% of holding | −11.6% | +6.5% | 448 | Form 4 · filed 1433 days after the trade |
| 2021-12-02 | LANE AMY B | director | Purchase | 21 @ $71.26 | $1K | +0.1% of holding | +2.7% | −1.2% | 28,984 | Form 4 · filed 1524 days after the trade |
| 2021-12-02 | LANE AMY B | director | Purchase | 2 @ $71.26 | $119 | +0.4% of holding | +2.7% | −1.2% | 447 | Form 4 · filed 1524 days after the trade |
| 2021-09-02 | LANE AMY B | director | Purchase | 20 @ $72.54 | $1K | +0.1% of holding | −3.2% | −8.3% | 28,963 | Form 4 · filed 1615 days after the trade |
| 2021-09-02 | LANE AMY B | director | Purchase | 2 @ $72.54 | $115 | +0.4% of holding | −3.2% | −8.3% | 445 | Form 4 · filed 1615 days after the trade |
| 2021-06-03 | LANE AMY B | director | Purchase | 22 @ $66.99 | $1K | +0.1% of holding | −0.2% | −4.2% | 28,181 | Form 4 · filed 1706 days after the trade |
| 2021-06-03 | LANE AMY B | director | Purchase | 2 @ $66.99 | $115 | +0.4% of holding | −0.2% | −4.2% | 443 | Form 4 · filed 1706 days after the trade |
| 2021-03-04 | LANE AMY B | director | Purchase | 22 @ $64.87 | $1K | +0.1% of holding | +0.1% | −4.7% | 29,659 | Form 4 · filed 1797 days after the trade |
| 2021-03-04 | LANE AMY B | director | Purchase | 2 @ $64.87 | $112 | +0.4% of holding | +0.1% | −4.7% | 442 | Form 4 · filed 1797 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
150 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | BENNETT ALAN M | director | Award / grant | 637 | 62,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | BENNETT ALAN M | director | Award / grant | 654 | 62,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | BERKERY ROSEMARY T | director | Option exercise | 802 | 13,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | BERKERY ROSEMARY T | director | Award / grant | 637 | 11,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | BERKERY ROSEMARY T | director | Award / grant | 110 | 11,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | BERKERY ROSEMARY T | director | Award / grant | 637 | 1,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | BERKERY ROSEMARY T | director | Award / grant | 8 | 1,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | BERKERY ROSEMARY T | director | Option exercise | 802 | 632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | CHING DAVID T | director | Option exercise | 802 | 11,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | CHING DAVID T | director | Award / grant | 637 | 64,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | CHING DAVID T | director | Award / grant | 681 | 65,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | CHING DAVID T | director | Award / grant | 637 | 10,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | CHING DAVID T | director | Award / grant | 102 | 10,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | CHING DAVID T | director | Option exercise | 802 | 9,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | GOODWIN C KIM | director | Award / grant | 637 | 7,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | GOODWIN C KIM | director | Award / grant | 74 | 7,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | GOODWIN C KIM | director | Award / grant | 637 | 1,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | GOODWIN C KIM | director | Award / grant | 8 | 1,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | GOODWIN C KIM | director | Option exercise | 802 | 633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | LANE AMY B | director | Option exercise | 802 | 23,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | LANE AMY B | director | Award / grant | 637 | 80,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | LANE AMY B | director | Award / grant | 848 | 81,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | LANE AMY B | director | Award / grant | 637 | 20,163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | LANE AMY B | director | Award / grant | 208 | 20,371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | LANE AMY B | director | Option exercise | 802 | 19,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Nemerov Jackwyn | director | Option exercise | 802 | 1,759 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Nemerov Jackwyn | director | Award / grant | 637 | 15,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Nemerov Jackwyn | director | Award / grant | 156 | 15,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Nemerov Jackwyn | director | Award / grant | 637 | 12,366 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Nemerov Jackwyn | director | Award / grant | 125 | 12,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Nemerov Jackwyn | director | Option exercise | 802 | 11,689 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | WAGNER CHARLES F JR | director | Award / grant | 637 | 3,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | WAGNER CHARLES F JR | director | Award / grant | 27 | 3,153 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | GOODWIN C KIM | director | Option exercise | 802 | 9,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Alvarez Jose B | director | Award / grant | 637 | 7,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Alvarez Jose B | director | Award / grant | 75 | 7,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Benjamin Peter | officer | Gift | 34,129 | 128,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Benjamin Peter | officer | Gift | 34,129 | 34,129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Herrman Ernie | director | Withheld for tax | 26,004 | 582,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | MEYROWITZ CAROL | director | Withheld for tax | 11,930 | 257,120 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| John Hickenlooper | Senate | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-14 | $50–100K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-12-11 | 2025-11-13 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-14 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.