TIPT · TickerCove

TIPTTiptree Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.53 · now $17.54 (2026-09-17, +0.1% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TIPT has typically landed between $15.25 and $19.95 — a range of −13.0% to +13.8% from the issuance price $17.53.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,813 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-06-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$17.54 · 21% of range

$15.67 low$24.48 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-17 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.4%

typical move · IQR 10.8%

−13.0%worst (p90)+13.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where TIPT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $17.54 (+0.1%)
typical $17.77 (+1.4%)
middle 50% $16.83–$18.72
90% range $15.25–$19.95

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,814 windows spanning 2007-06-22 to 2026-09-17. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2009-02-02	−50.9%	−50.9%	+1.8%
2009-02-03	−49.0%	−51.7%	+0.0%
2009-02-05	−45.3%	−50.4%	+2.9%
3 best
2021-03-24	+96.1%	+0.0%	+96.1%
2021-03-04	+88.5%	+0.0%	+88.5%
2021-03-08	+86.6%	+0.0%	+86.6%

4,814 overlapping windows · 2007-06-22 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

58%

+0.4%

n=19

Feb

47%

−2.1%

n=19

Mar

58%

+4.4%

n=19

Apr

47%

+2.1%

n=19

May

53%

+2.8%

n=19

Jun

42%

−0.3%

n=19

Jul

40%

−0.3%

n=20

Aug

75%

+2.7%

n=20

Sep

40%

−1.7%

n=20

Oct

47%

+1.6%

n=19

Nov

63%

+1.1%

n=19

Dec

47%

+0.3%

n=19

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-27	Ilany Jonathan	director	Purchase	990 @ $17.45	$17K	+0.5% of holding	+5.0%	not yet — horizon still open	193,011	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-12	McKinney Scott T.	officer	Purchase	1,232 @ $15.98	$20K	+44.5% of holding	+4.0%	−3.7%	4,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-11	McKinney Scott T.	officer	Purchase	2,600 @ $16.15	$42K	+1547.6% of holding	+3.9%	−1.2%	2,768	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Mielle Dominique	director	Purchase	5,500 @ $18.29	$101K	+8.4% of holding	−5.2%	−17.8%	70,712	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-25	Rifkind Neil Charles	officer	Sale	16,641 @ $25.00	$416K	−51.5% of holding	−3.9%	−19.2%	15,660	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

57 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-02	Smith Bradley E.	director	Award / grant	1,768	107,263	Form 4
2026-07-02	Goldwasser Lesley	director	Award / grant	1,061	116,615	Form 4
2026-04-02	Smith Bradley E.	director	Award / grant	1,907	105,495	Form 4
2026-04-02	Goldwasser Lesley	director	Award / grant	1,144	115,554	Form 4
2026-02-20	McKinney Scott T.	officer	Withheld for tax	5,143	99,939	Form 4
2026-02-20	McKinney Scott T.	officer	Option exercise	15,110	105,082	Form 4
2026-02-20	McKinney Scott T.	officer	Option exercise	15,110	0	Form 4
2026-02-20	McKinney Scott T.	officer	Option exercise	15,110	105,082	Form 4
2026-02-20	McKinney Scott T.	officer	Option exercise	15,110	0	Form 4
2026-01-08	Goldwasser Lesley	director	Award / grant	2,048	114,410	Form 4
2026-01-08	Friedman Paul M	director	Award / grant	2,048	122,398	Form 4
2025-10-03	Friedman Paul M	director	Award / grant	1,807	120,350	Form 4
2025-10-03	Goldwasser Lesley	director	Award / grant	1,807	112,362	Form 4
2025-09-15	Ilany Jonathan	director	Withheld for tax	124,787	274,742	Form 4
2025-09-15	Ilany Jonathan	director	Withheld for tax	98,531	399,529	Form 4
2025-09-15	Ilany Jonathan	director	Option exercise	351,155	498,060	Form 4
2025-09-15	Ilany Jonathan	director	Option exercise	351,155	0	Form 4
2025-09-12	Barnes Michael Gene	director	Withheld for tax	29,224	10,085,428	Form 4
2025-09-12	Barnes Michael Gene	director	Option exercise	112,015	10,114,652	Form 4
2025-09-12	Barnes Michael Gene	director	Option exercise	112,015	0	Form 4
2025-09-12	Barnes Michael Gene	director	Withheld for tax	10,343	9,999,059	Form 4
2025-09-12	Barnes Michael Gene	director	Option exercise	46,494	0	Form 4
2025-09-12	Barnes Michael Gene	director	Option exercise	46,494	10,009,402	Form 4
2025-09-12	Barnes Michael Gene	director	Withheld for tax	1,071	10,002,637	Form 4
2025-09-12	Barnes Michael Gene	director	Option exercise	4,649	10,003,708	Form 4
2025-09-12	Barnes Michael Gene	director	Option exercise	4,649	0	Form 4
2025-09-02	Ilany Jonathan	director	Withheld for tax	53,128	146,905	Form 4
2025-09-02	Ilany Jonathan	director	Option exercise	137,038	223,035	Form 4
2025-09-02	Ilany Jonathan	director	Option exercise	137,038	0	Form 4
2025-09-02	Ilany Jonathan	director	Withheld for tax	33,262	189,773	Form 4
2025-09-02	Ilany Jonathan	director	Withheld for tax	3,444	200,033	Form 4
2025-09-02	Ilany Jonathan	director	Option exercise	13,704	0	Form 4
2025-09-02	Ilany Jonathan	director	Option exercise	13,704	203,477	Form 4
2025-07-03	Goldwasser Lesley	director	Award / grant	1,595	110,555	Form 4
2025-07-03	Friedman Paul M	director	Award / grant	1,595	118,543	Form 4
2025-04-03	Friedman Paul M	director	Award / grant	1,547	116,948	Form 4
2025-04-03	Goldwasser Lesley	director	Award / grant	1,547	108,960	Form 4
2025-02-25	Ilany Jonathan	director	Withheld for tax	65,781	85,997	Form 4
2025-02-25	Barnes Michael Gene	director	Award / grant	60,813	9,962,908	Form 4
2025-02-25	Ilany Jonathan	director	Award / grant	151,778	151,778	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i