Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.18 · now $7.18 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TIL has typically landed between $4.45 and $9.72 — a range of −38.0% to +35.4% from the issuance price $7.18.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,358 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-03-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.18) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TIL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.18 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $7.18 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.71 (-6.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.88–$7.53
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.45–$9.72
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-10-28 | −75.2% | −75.2% | +0.0% |
| 2022-11-14 | −73.7% | −73.7% | +1.2% |
| 2022-11-15 | −72.5% | −74.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-08-16 | +557.1% | +0.0% | +557.1% |
| 2024-08-15 | +534.0% | −1.6% | +534.0% |
| 2024-08-14 | +514.8% | −3.8% | +514.8% |
1,358 overlapping windows · 2021-03-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-10 | Laumas Sandeep | director | Sale | 17,539 @ $23.04 | $404K | −58.5% of holding | −12.9% | −64.6% | 12,461 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Laumas Sandeep | director | Sale | 12,461 @ $23.88 | $298K | −100.0% of holding | −12.9% | −64.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
14 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Gibson Neil W | director | Award / grant | 0 | 6,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | McGaughy R Kent Jr | director | Award / grant | 6,500 | 6,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Matcham George | director | Award / grant | 6,500 | 6,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Binder Gwendolyn | director | Award / grant | 6,500 | 6,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Laumas Sandeep | director | Option exercise | 17,000 | 17,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Laumas Sandeep | director | Option exercise | 13,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Laumas Sandeep | director | Option exercise | 17,000 | 17,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Laumas Sandeep | director | Option exercise | 13,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-28 | McGaughy R Kent Jr | director | Award / grant | 6,500 | 6,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-28 | Matcham George | director | Award / grant | 6,500 | 6,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-28 | Gibson Neil W | director | Award / grant | 6,500 | 6,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-28 | Binder Gwendolyn | director | Award / grant | 6,500 | 6,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-25 | Crouch Bronson | director | Award / grant | 105,157 | 105,157 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-25 | Laumas Sandeep | director | Award / grant | 44,851 | 44,851 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.