THRM · TickerCove

THRMGentherm IncorporatedConsumer Cyclical · Auto - Partsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $37.97 · now $37.97 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, THRM has typically landed between $31.80 and $44.47 — a range of −16.2% to +17.1% from the issuance price $37.97.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($37.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$37.97 · 58% of range

$27.21 low$45.61 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.4%

typical move · IQR 13.0%

−16.2%worst (p90)+17.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where THRM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $37.97 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $37.97 (+0.0%)
typical $37.44 (-1.4%)
middle 50% $34.98–$39.91
90% range $31.8–$44.47

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-11-10	−52.4%	−52.4%	+0.0%
2008-11-06	−51.8%	−53.1%	+0.0%
2008-11-13	−50.8%	−50.8%	+0.0%
3 best
2008-12-15	+182.8%	−5.7%	+186.9%
2008-12-17	+175.9%	+0.0%	+201.7%
2008-12-30	+175.0%	+0.0%	+181.3%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

65%

+7.9%

n=20

Feb

50%

+2.6%

n=20

Mar

60%

+0.6%

n=20

Apr

35%

+1.8%

n=20

May

50%

−0.4%

n=20

Jun

55%

+2.3%

n=20

Jul

55%

+5.9%

n=20

Aug

45%

+1.5%

n=20

Sep

25%

−2.8%

n=20

Oct

50%

−1.5%

n=20

Nov

70%

+2.9%

n=20

Dec

55%

+0.2%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-17	Nicholas Breisacher	officer	Sale	925 @ $43.21	$40K	−16.0% of holding	−10.0%	not yet — horizon still open	4,864	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-29	Kauffman Wayne S III	officer	Sale	4,700 @ $43.21	$203K	−14.6% of holding	−11.6%	not yet — horizon still open	27,421	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-21	Runyon Barbara J	officer	Sale	3,348 @ $34.82	$117K	−9.7% of holding	−4.1%	−14.2%	31,316	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-13	Washington Kenneth E	director	Purchase	1,700 @ $28.06	$48K	+18.3% of holding	−3.2%	+16.6%	10,965	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-08	Hundzinski Ronald T	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $26.67	$133K	+38.4% of holding	−1.7%	+15.9%	18,006	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-25	Presley William T.	director	Purchase	3,000 @ $24.67	$74K	+1.9% of holding	+5.5%	+27.1%	161,103	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-25	Stocker Thomas	officer	Purchase	229 @ $24.91	$6K	+1.1% of holding	+5.5%	+27.1%	20,546	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-25	Stocker Thomas	officer	Purchase	92 @ $25.07	$2K	+0.4% of holding	+5.5%	+27.1%	20,638	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-11	Stocker Thomas	officer	Sale	1,295 @ $42.98	$56K	−8.8% of holding	−6.2%	−35.9%	13,413	Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-05	Xu Hui (Helen)	officer	Sale	2,500 @ $42.00	$105K	−11.7% of holding	−2.8%	−31.5%	18,947	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

107 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-14	Desormiere Sophie	director	Award / grant	4,292	42,303	Form 4
2026-05-14	Meter Elizabeth	director	Award / grant	4,292	19,664	Form 4
2026-05-14	Stacey John	director	Award / grant	4,292	27,112	Form 4
2026-05-14	Washington Kenneth E	director	Award / grant	4,292	15,257	Form 4
2026-05-14	Heinzmann David W	director	Award / grant	4,292	21,365	Form 4
2026-05-14	Hundzinski Ronald T	director	Award / grant	4,292	22,298	Form 4
2026-05-14	Kowalchik Laura Michele	director	Award / grant	4,292	13,395	Form 4
2026-05-14	Kummeth Charles R.	director	Award / grant	4,292	25,937	Form 4
2026-03-23	Stocker Thomas	officer	Withheld for tax	1,115	28,085	Form 4
2026-03-23	Runyon Barbara J	officer	Withheld for tax	961	37,686	Form 4
2026-03-23	Kauffman Wayne S III	officer	Withheld for tax	925	32,121	Form 4
2026-03-23	Wilson Jaymi	officer	Withheld for tax	710	42,726	Form 4
2026-03-23	Barkas Rafael	officer	Withheld for tax	607	31,893	Form 4
2026-03-23	Nicholas Breisacher	officer	Withheld for tax	102	5,789	Form 4
2026-03-23	Wilson Jaymi	officer	Award / grant	2,474	43,436	Form 4
2026-03-23	Stocker Thomas	officer	Award / grant	2,474	29,200	Form 4
2026-03-23	Nicholas Breisacher	officer	Award / grant	353	5,891	Form 4
2026-03-23	Barkas Rafael	officer	Award / grant	2,121	32,500	Form 4
2026-03-23	Kauffman Wayne S III	officer	Award / grant	2,121	33,046	Form 4
2026-03-23	Runyon Barbara J	officer	Award / grant	2,121	38,647	Form 4
2026-03-23	Wang Chenglong	officer	Award / grant	266	17,231	Form 4
2026-03-17	Nicholas Breisacher	officer	Award / grant	1,599	5,538	Form 4
2026-03-17	Douyard Jonathan C	officer	Award / grant	14,049	69,639	Form 4
2026-03-17	Sundaram Vishnu	officer	Award / grant	7,665	28,473	Form 4
2026-03-17	Stocker Thomas	officer	Award / grant	8,940	26,726	Form 4
2026-03-17	Kauffman Wayne S III	officer	Award / grant	7,665	30,925	Form 4
2026-03-17	Wilson Jaymi	officer	Award / grant	8,940	40,962	Form 4
2026-03-17	Presley William T.	director	Award / grant	40,230	178,314	Form 4
2026-03-17	Runyon Barbara J	officer	Award / grant	7,665	36,526	Form 4
2026-03-17	Wang Chenglong	officer	Award / grant	11,496	16,965	Form 4
2026-03-17	Barkas Rafael	officer	Award / grant	7,665	30,379	Form 4
2026-03-15	Stocker Thomas	officer	Withheld for tax	1,014	17,786	Form 4
2026-03-15	Runyon Barbara J	officer	Withheld for tax	892	28,861	Form 4
2026-03-15	Kauffman Wayne S III	officer	Withheld for tax	874	23,260	Form 4
2026-03-15	Wilson Jaymi	officer	Withheld for tax	646	32,022	Form 4
2026-03-15	Barkas Rafael	officer	Withheld for tax	573	22,714	Form 4
2026-03-15	Sundaram Vishnu	officer	Withheld for tax	430	20,808	Form 4
2026-03-15	Nicholas Breisacher	officer	Withheld for tax	90	3,939	Form 4
2026-03-14	Presley William T.	director	Withheld for tax	5,083	138,084	Form 4
2026-03-14	Douyard Jonathan C	officer	Withheld for tax	1,873	55,590	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i