THMInternational Tower Hill Mines Ltd.Basic Materials · Goldas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.35 · now $2.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, THM has typically landed between $1.77 and $3.47 — a range of −24.6% to +47.6% from the issuance price $2.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,855 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-05-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where THM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.77worst · -24.6%$3.47best · +47.6%
  • now $2.35 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.56 (+8.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.25–$2.86
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.77–$3.47
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,855 windows spanning 2007-05-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−61.3%−61.3%+0.0%
2008-09-29−57.2%−60.0%+0.0%
2013-08-26−52.1%−52.1%+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-30+202.2%+0.0%+202.2%
2020-05-01+178.7%+0.0%+195.7%
2020-04-29+145.7%+0.0%+145.7%

4,855 overlapping windows · 2007-05-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
74%
+15.3%
n=19
Feb
37%
−1.9%
n=19
Mar
42%
+1.6%
n=19
Apr
37%
+3.6%
n=19
May
47%
+7.7%
n=19
Jun
35%
+0.9%
n=20
Jul
35%
+0.7%
n=20
Aug
40%
−0.9%
n=20
Sep
50%
+0.3%
n=20
Oct
53%
−0.3%
n=19
Nov
32%
−2.3%
n=19
Dec
53%
+3.7%
n=19

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$4$12026-04-16: 1 insider purchase, $12.6M — PAULSON & CO. INC.2026-01-29: 1 insider purchase, $3.3M — PAULSON & CO. INC.2026-01-28: 1 insider purchase, $21.8M — PAULSON & CO. INC.2026-01-27: 2 insider purchases, $47.0M — PAULSON & CO. INC., ELECTRUM GLOBAL HOLDINGS L.P.2026-01: 4 open-market purchases, $72.1M2026-04: 1 open-market purchase, $12.6M↑ buys↓ salesother PAULSON & CO. INC. — Purchase on 2026-04-16, filed 4 days after the tradeother PAULSON & CO. INC. — Purchase on 2026-01-29, filed 1 day after the tradeother PAULSON & CO. INC. — Purchase on 2026-01-28, filed 2 days after the tradeother PAULSON & CO. INC. — Purchase on 2026-01-27, filed same daytenPercentOwner ELECTRUM GLOBAL HOLDINGS L.P. — Purchase on 2026-01-27, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-04-16PAULSON & CO. INC.otherPurchase4,913,665 @ $2.56$12.6M+4.9% of holding−8.1%not yet — horizon still open104,486,703Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-29PAULSON & CO. INC.otherPurchase1,501,982 @ $2.22$3.3M+1.5% of holding+21.8%−49.7%99,573,038Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-28PAULSON & CO. INC.otherPurchase9,813,650 @ $2.22$21.8M+11.1% of holding+15.3%−45.2%98,071,056Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-27PAULSON & CO. INC.otherPurchase18,018,018 @ $2.22$40.0M+25.7% of holding+17.6%−40.6%88,257,406Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-27ELECTRUM GLOBAL HOLDINGS L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase3,153,153 @ $2.22$7.0Mownership Δ n/a+17.6%−40.6%3,153,153Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03PAULSON & CO. INC.otherPurchase6,040,408 @ $0.48$2.9M+9.4% of holding+23.9%+225.9%70,239,388Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-27Electrum Strategic Opportunities Fund II L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase1,152,091 @ $0.48$553K+4.2% of holding+42.9%+176.3%28,765,672Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

24 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-24Hanneman Karl LdirectorOption exercise150,000362,000Form 4
2026-08-24Hanneman Karl LdirectorOption exercise150,0000Form 4
2026-08-20Cross David AllenofficerOption exercise30,00030,000Form 4
2026-08-20Cross David AllenofficerOption exercise30,0000Form 4
2026-08-17Wiens David VictordirectorAward / grant600,365600,365Form 4
2026-07-27Parrow Shane EdwarddirectorAward / grant312,500312,500Form 4
2026-05-27WENG THOMAS S.directorAward / grant42,36542,365Form 4
2026-05-27Tully EdeldirectorAward / grant36,13536,135Form 4
2026-05-27Harshaw Stuart AlandirectorAward / grant36,13536,135Form 4
2026-05-27Cole Andrew PhillipdirectorAward / grant36,13536,135Form 4
2026-05-27Cross David AllenofficerAward / grant15,00015,000Form 4
2026-05-27DRESCHER ANTON JdirectorAward / grant36,13536,135Form 4
2026-05-27Hanneman Karl LdirectorAward / grant36,13536,135Form 4
2026-05-27Hanneman Karl LdirectorAward / grant150,000150,000Form 4
2026-02-09DRESCHER ANTON JdirectorAward / grant11,85811,858Form 4
2026-02-09Tully EdeldirectorAward / grant11,85811,858Form 4
2026-02-09WENG THOMAS S.directorAward / grant17,78717,787Form 4
2025-06-04WENG THOMAS S.directorAward / grant66,40066,400Form 4
2025-06-04Tully EdeldirectorAward / grant66,40066,400Form 4
2025-06-04DRESCHER ANTON JdirectorAward / grant66,40066,400Form 4
2025-06-04Harshaw Stuart AlandirectorAward / grant66,40066,400Form 4
2025-06-04Hanneman Karl LdirectorAward / grant66,40066,400Form 4
2025-06-04Hanneman Karl LdirectorAward / grant150,000150,000Form 4
2025-06-04Cross David AllenofficerAward / grant15,00015,000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.