THGThe Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $231.76 · now $231.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, THG has typically landed between $213.43 and $254.07 — a range of −7.9% to +9.6% from the issuance price $231.76.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($231.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where THG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $231.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$213.43worst · -7.9%$254.07best · +9.6%
  • now $231.76 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $235.18 (+1.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $226.81–$243.56
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $213.43–$254.07
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−38.6%−38.6%+0.0%
2020-02-21−38.4%−38.4%+0.0%
2020-02-20−37.7%−38.5%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-20+32.9%+0.0%+35.5%
2009-05-01+25.1%+0.0%+25.1%
2009-05-06+22.8%+0.0%+22.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
−0.3%
n=20
Feb
60%
+0.9%
n=20
Mar
60%
+0.7%
n=20
Apr
40%
+0.1%
n=20
May
55%
+1.2%
n=20
Jun
50%
+1.2%
n=20
Jul
70%
+0.8%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.7%
n=20
Sep
60%
+0.7%
n=20
Oct
65%
+1.1%
n=20
Nov
85%
+4.3%
n=20
Dec
65%
+1.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$233$1662026-08-20: 2 insider sales, $468K — Kerrigan Dennis Francis …2026-08-19: 3 insider sales, $1.4M — Kerrigan Dennis Francis …2026-08-06: 1 insider sale, $138K — Bunting Theodore H JR2026-08-05: 1 insider sale, $137K — Bunting Theodore H JR2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $232K — Carlin Jane D2026-06-03: 1 insider sale, $3.0M — Salvatore Bryan J2026-05-21: 1 insider sale, $195K — Aristeguieta Francisco2026-05-20: 4 insider sales, $2.8M — Kerrigan Dennis Francis, Roche John C …2026-05-18: 4 insider sales, $1.0M — Roche John C …2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $800K — Lowsley Denise2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $200K — Lowsley Denise2026-05-04: 1 insider sale, $184K — Lee Willard T2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $641K — Egan Cynthia2026-02-27: 1 insider sale, $217K — Carlin Jane D2026-02-05: 6 insider sales, $4.4M — LAVEY RICHARD W …2025-11-12: 1 insider sale, $294K — Lowsley Denise2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $946K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $294K2026-02: 7 open-market sales, $4.6M2026-05: 13 open-market sales, $5.9M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $3.0M2026-08: 8 open-market sales, $2.4M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Kerrigan Dennis Francis — Sale on 2026-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Kerrigan Dennis Francis — Sale on 2026-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Kerrigan Dennis Francis — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kerrigan Dennis Francis — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kerrigan Dennis Francis — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bunting Theodore H JR — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bunting Theodore H JR — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Carlin Jane D — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Salvatore Bryan J — Sale on 2026-06-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Aristeguieta Francisco — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Kerrigan Dennis Francis — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Roche John C — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Roche John C — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Roche John C — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Roche John C — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Roche John C — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Roche John C — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Roche John C — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Lowsley Denise — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Lowsley Denise — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Lee Willard T — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Egan Cynthia — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Carlin Jane D — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer LAVEY RICHARD W — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer LAVEY RICHARD W — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer LAVEY RICHARD W — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer LAVEY RICHARD W — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer LAVEY RICHARD W — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer LAVEY RICHARD W — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Lowsley Denise — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20Kerrigan Dennis FrancisofficerSale1,704 @ $222.97$380K−12.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open12,003Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-20Kerrigan Dennis FrancisofficerSale400 @ $220.01$88K−2.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open13,707Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19Kerrigan Dennis FrancisofficerSale4,822 @ $220.41$1.1M−26.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open13,732Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19Kerrigan Dennis FrancisofficerSale1,505 @ $221.73$334K−11.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open12,227Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19Kerrigan Dennis FrancisofficerSale224 @ $222.77$50K−1.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open12,003Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-06Bunting Theodore H JRdirectorSale600 @ $230.20$138K−9.3% of holding−1.5%not yet — horizon still open5,835Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-05Bunting Theodore H JRdirectorSale600 @ $228.03$137K−8.5% of holding+0.7%not yet — horizon still open6,435Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03Carlin Jane DdirectorSale1,000 @ $231.50$232K−30.6% of holding−3.3%not yet — horizon still open2,270Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-03Salvatore Bryan JofficerSale16,394 @ $185.76$3.0M−36.1% of holding+18.9%not yet — horizon still open29,069Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-21Aristeguieta FranciscodirectorSale1,000 @ $195.37$195K−19.8% of holding+7.7%not yet — horizon still open4,053Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-20Kerrigan Dennis FrancisofficerSale6,262 @ $192.99$1.2M−34.3% of holding+3.3%not yet — horizon still open11,988Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20Roche John CdirectorSale5,145 @ $194.05$998K−3.5% of holding+3.3%not yet — horizon still open141,072Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20Roche John CdirectorSale3,152 @ $193.21$609K−2.1% of holding+3.3%not yet — horizon still open146,217Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20Roche John CdirectorSale61 @ $194.77$12K−0.0% of holding+3.3%not yet — horizon still open141,011Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18Roche John CdirectorSale2,516 @ $198.65$500K−1.8% of holding+1.3%not yet — horizon still open141,111Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18Roche John CdirectorSale2,260 @ $197.61$447K−1.5% of holding+1.3%not yet — horizon still open143,627Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18Roche John CdirectorSale375 @ $196.55$74K−0.3% of holding+1.3%not yet — horizon still open145,887Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18Roche John CdirectorSale100 @ $199.23$20K−0.1% of holding+1.3%not yet — horizon still open141,011Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-14Lowsley DeniseofficerSale4,175 @ $191.73$800K−51.8% of holding+2.9%not yet — horizon still open3,883Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08Lowsley DeniseofficerSale1,062 @ $188.43$200K−21.5% of holding+1.8%not yet — horizon still open3,883Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-04Lee Willard TofficerSale1,000 @ $183.93$184K−14.3% of holding−3.4%not yet — horizon still open5,982Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-01Egan CynthiadirectorSale3,400 @ $188.50$641K−26.6% of holding−5.3%not yet — horizon still open9,359Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-27Carlin Jane DdirectorSale1,200 @ $180.91$217K−33.1% of holding+3.7%+14.6%2,423Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-05LAVEY RICHARD WofficerSale8,954 @ $179.83$1.6M−18.6% of holding−2.1%+15.3%39,174Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-05LAVEY RICHARD WofficerSale4,339 @ $178.05$773K−7.7% of holding−2.1%+15.3%52,255Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-05LAVEY RICHARD WofficerSale4,127 @ $178.78$738K−7.9% of holding−2.1%+15.3%48,128Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-05LAVEY RICHARD WofficerSale4,111 @ $178.08$732K−10.5% of holding−2.1%+15.3%35,063Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-05LAVEY RICHARD WofficerSale2,611 @ $178.68$467K−7.4% of holding−2.1%+15.3%32,452Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-05LAVEY RICHARD WofficerSale278 @ $179.69$50K−0.9% of holding−2.1%+15.3%32,174Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Lowsley DeniseofficerSale1,619 @ $181.47$294K−31.6% of holding+2.3%−0.9%3,511Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-01Lowsley DeniseofficerSale5,626 @ $168.15$946K−52.4% of holding+1.2%−8.1%5,119Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-23Carlin Jane DdirectorSale977 @ $167.81$164K−100.0% of holding−6.4%−4.6%0Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-07Salvatore Bryan JofficerSale5,437 @ $167.01$908K−17.3% of holding−1.9%−15.0%25,978Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-07Salvatore Bryan JofficerSale4,975 @ $166.12$826K−13.7% of holding−1.9%−15.0%31,415Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-07Salvatore Bryan JofficerSale114 @ $167.76$19K−0.4% of holding−1.9%−15.0%25,864Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-01Roche John CdirectorSale8,906 @ $175.17$1.6M−6.7% of holding−4.9%−15.0%124,414Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-31Roche John CdirectorSale301 @ $175.00$53K−0.2% of holding−3.6%−14.3%124,414Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-28Roche John CdirectorSale400 @ $175.03$70K−0.3% of holding−3.6%−15.3%124,278Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-27Roche John CdirectorSale200 @ $175.01$35K−0.2% of holding−3.8%−13.6%124,278Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-26Roche John CdirectorSale900 @ $175.17$158K−0.7% of holding−3.8%−14.2%124,278Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Roche John CdirectorSale5,509 @ $172.66$951K−4.2% of holding+5.3%−7.5%124,278Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Salvatore Bryan JofficerSale5,034 @ $172.67$869K−16.3% of holding+5.3%−7.5%25,836Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Salvatore Bryan JofficerSale3,992 @ $171.86$686K−11.5% of holding+5.3%−7.5%30,870Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Roche John CdirectorSale3,303 @ $171.86$568K−2.5% of holding+5.3%−7.5%129,787Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Roche John CdirectorSale1,894 @ $170.91$324K−1.4% of holding+5.3%−7.5%133,090Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Salvatore Bryan JofficerSale1,500 @ $170.83$256K−4.1% of holding+5.3%−7.5%34,862Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

223 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20Kerrigan Dennis FrancisofficerOption exercise2,10414,107Form 4
2026-08-20Kerrigan Dennis FrancisofficerOption exercise2,1040Form 4
2026-08-19Kerrigan Dennis FrancisofficerOption exercise6,55118,554Form 4
2026-08-19Kerrigan Dennis FrancisofficerOption exercise6,5512,104Form 4
2026-07-29FARBER JEFFREY MofficerWithheld for tax49,33068,777Form 4
2026-07-29FARBER JEFFREY MofficerOption exercise26,83299,023Form 4
2026-07-29FARBER JEFFREY MofficerOption exercise20,37972,191Form 4
2026-07-29FARBER JEFFREY MofficerOption exercise19,084118,107Form 4
2026-07-29FARBER JEFFREY MofficerOption exercise19,0840Form 4
2026-07-29FARBER JEFFREY MofficerOption exercise20,3790Form 4
2026-07-29FARBER JEFFREY MofficerOption exercise26,8320Form 4
2026-06-26Kerrigan Dennis FrancisofficerAward / grant1512,003Form 4
2026-06-26Aristeguieta FranciscodirectorAward / grant44,057Form 4
2026-06-26Bradicich KevindirectorAward / grant410,096Form 4
2026-06-26Bunting Theodore H JRdirectorAward / grant47,035Form 4
2026-06-26Carlin Jane DdirectorAward / grant43,270Form 4
2026-06-26Condrin J PauldirectorAward / grant46,356Form 4
2026-06-26Donnell William E.directorAward / grant4847Form 4
2026-06-26Egan CynthiadirectorAward / grant410,206Form 4
2026-06-26FARBER JEFFREY MofficerAward / grant4351,812Form 4
2026-06-26LAVEY RICHARD WofficerAward / grant2834,447Form 4
2026-06-26Lee Willard TofficerAward / grant115,993Form 4
2026-06-26LOVELY DAVID JOHNofficerAward / grant113,819Form 4
2026-06-26Norton-Gatto Patricia A.officerAward / grant62,446Form 4
2026-06-26Roche John CdirectorAward / grant122141,133Form 4
2026-06-26Salvatore Bryan JofficerAward / grant2529,094Form 4
2026-06-26Ward Elizabeth AdirectorAward / grant45,883Form 4
2026-06-26RAMRATH JOSEPH RdirectorAward / grant433,834Form 4
2026-06-26LANE KATHY SdirectorAward / grant42,773Form 4
2026-06-03Salvatore Bryan JofficerOption exercise16,39445,463Form 4
2026-06-03Salvatore Bryan JofficerOption exercise16,3940Form 4
2026-05-20Kerrigan Dennis FrancisofficerOption exercise6,26218,250Form 4
2026-05-20Kerrigan Dennis FrancisofficerOption exercise6,2620Form 4
2026-05-19Roche John CdirectorWithheld for tax24,766149,369Form 4
2026-05-19Roche John CdirectorOption exercise24,026174,135Form 4
2026-05-19Roche John CdirectorOption exercise9,098150,109Form 4
2026-05-19Roche John CdirectorOption exercise9,0980Form 4
2026-05-19Roche John CdirectorOption exercise24,02648,052Form 4
2026-05-15Roche John CdirectorWithheld for tax12,943146,262Form 4
2026-05-15Roche John CdirectorOption exercise18,194159,205Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.