TH · TickerCove

THTarget Hospitality Corp.Industrials · Specialty Business Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $18.76 · now $18.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TH has typically landed between $14.62 and $24.44 — a range of −22.1% to +30.3% from the issuance price $18.76.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,120 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-03-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($18.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$18.76 · 88% of range

$6.22 low$20.52 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.3%

typical move · IQR 21.4%

−22.1%worst (p90)+30.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where TH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $18.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $18.76 (+0.0%)
typical $19.19 (+2.3%)
middle 50% $17.18–$21.19
90% range $14.62–$24.44

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,120 windows spanning 2018-03-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−73.8%	−73.8%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−73.0%	−73.0%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−71.3%	−72.9%	+0.0%
3 best
2022-07-06	+170.5%	+0.0%	+191.7%
2022-07-05	+167.8%	−5.0%	+177.2%
2022-07-01	+156.9%	−11.9%	+156.9%

2,120 overlapping windows · 2018-03-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+0.2%

n=8

Feb

25%

−7.2%

n=8

Mar

63%

+14.3%

n=8

Apr

89%

+9.4%

n=9

May

78%

+10.6%

n=9

Jun

11%

−7.5%

n=9

Jul

44%

+11.1%

n=9

Aug

78%

+5.7%

n=9

Sep

33%

−4.5%

n=9

Oct

25%

−8.3%

n=8

Nov

63%

+8.6%

n=8

Dec

63%

+2.0%

n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	Archer James Bradley	director	Purchase	13,385 @ $18.69	$250K	+0.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,845,441	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-20	Lewis Heidi Diane	officer	Sale	9,000 @ $7.34	$66K	−6.4% of holding	−8.1%	+111.3%	131,742	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15	Lewis Heidi Diane	officer	Sale	13,456 @ $8.50	$114K	−8.7% of holding	−10.0%	+116.4%	140,742	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-03	Robertson Stephen	director	Purchase	125,000 @ $7.94	$993K	+39.1% of holding	+3.9%	+99.1%	445,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-17	Robertson Stephen	director	Purchase	145,000 @ $6.85	$993K	+82.9% of holding	+30.3%	+174.2%	320,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-17	Lewis Heidi Diane	officer	Sale	9,000 @ $6.70	$60K	−5.5% of holding	+30.3%	+174.2%	154,198	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-20	Lewis Heidi Diane	officer	Sale	9,000 @ $7.09	$64K	−5.2% of holding	−7.7%	+97.5%	163,198	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-22	Lewis Heidi Diane	officer	Sale	12,256 @ $8.71	$107K	−6.6% of holding	−18.2%	+9.3%	172,198	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-18	Schrenk Troy C.	officer	Sale	49,344 @ $8.58	$423K	−22.0% of holding	−19.1%	+6.4%	174,553	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

231 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-10	TDR Capital II Investments LP	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	16,100,000	29,878,409	Form 4
2026-08-04	Smyth Margaret Mary	director	Award / grant	6,963	6,963	Form 4
2026-08-04	Sanchack Erich	director	Award / grant	6,963	6,963	Form 4
2026-06-18	TDR Capital II Investments LP	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	1,344,460	45,978,409	Form 4
2026-06-17	Robertson Stephen	director	Other acquisition	348,475	655,689	Form 4
2026-06-17	Robertson Stephen	director	Other acquisition	31,667	109,051	Form 4
2026-06-17	Robertson Stephen	director	Other acquisition	348,475	655,689	Form 4
2026-06-17	Robertson Stephen	director	Other acquisition	31,667	109,051	Form 4
2026-05-29	TDR Capital II Investments LP	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	8,050,000	47,322,869	Form 4
2026-05-28	TDR Capital II Investments LP	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	1,203,134	55,372,869	Form 4
2026-05-28	Robertson Stephen	director	Other acquisition	73,680	73,680	Form 4
2026-05-28	Robertson Stephen	director	Other acquisition	233,534	307,214	Form 4
2026-05-28	Robertson Stephen	director	Other acquisition	18,560	18,560	Form 4
2026-05-28	Robertson Stephen	director	Other acquisition	18,560	18,560	Form 4
2026-05-28	Robertson Stephen	director	Other acquisition	73,680	73,680	Form 4
2026-05-28	Robertson Stephen	director	Other acquisition	233,534	307,214	Form 4
2026-05-28	Robertson Stephen	director	Other acquisition	58,824	77,384	Form 4
2026-05-28	Robertson Stephen	director	Other acquisition	58,824	77,384	Form 4
2026-05-21	Robertson Stephen	director	Option exercise	20,950	0	Form 4
2026-05-21	HERNANDEZ ALEJANDRO	director	Option exercise	16,061	0	Form 4
2026-05-21	HERNANDEZ ALEJANDRO	director	Award / grant	7,597	7,597	Form 4
2026-05-21	Hohnsbeen Paul	director	Option exercise	347	0	Form 4
2026-05-21	Hohnsbeen Paul	director	Award / grant	7,597	7,597	Form 4
2026-05-21	Jimmerson Martin L.	director	Option exercise	16,061	0	Form 4
2026-05-21	Jimmerson Martin L.	director	Award / grant	7,597	7,597	Form 4
2026-05-21	Medler Linda R	director	Option exercise	16,061	0	Form 4
2026-05-21	Medler Linda R	director	Award / grant	7,597	7,597	Form 4
2026-05-21	PATENAUDE PAMELA H.	director	Option exercise	16,061	0	Form 4
2026-05-21	PATENAUDE PAMELA H.	director	Award / grant	7,597	7,597	Form 4
2026-05-21	Robertson Stephen	director	Award / grant	9,567	9,567	Form 4
2026-05-21	Hohnsbeen Paul	director	Option exercise	347	347	Form 4
2026-05-21	Robertson Stephen	director	Option exercise	20,950	752,397	Form 4
2026-05-21	Jimmerson Martin L.	director	Option exercise	16,061	172,465	Form 4
2026-05-21	PATENAUDE PAMELA H.	director	Option exercise	16,061	69,375	Form 4
2026-05-21	HERNANDEZ ALEJANDRO	director	Option exercise	16,061	32,901	Form 4
2026-05-21	PATENAUDE PAMELA H.	director	Option exercise	16,061	69,375	Form 4
2026-05-21	HERNANDEZ ALEJANDRO	director	Option exercise	16,061	32,901	Form 4
2026-05-21	Medler Linda R	director	Option exercise	16,061	62,885	Form 4
2026-05-21	Robertson Stephen	director	Option exercise	20,950	752,397	Form 4
2026-05-21	Jimmerson Martin L.	director	Option exercise	16,061	172,465	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i