TGTTarget CorporationConsumer Defensive · Discount Storesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $154.68 · now $154.68 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TGT has typically landed between $132.83 and $177.37 — a range of −14.1% to +14.7% from the issuance price $154.68.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($154.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TGT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $154.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$132.83worst · -14.1%$177.37best · +14.7%
  • now $154.68 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $155.17 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $145.47–$164.88
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $132.83–$177.37
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-16−38.3%−38.3%+0.0%
2022-04-20−38.2%−38.2%+0.0%
2022-04-25−37.7%−37.7%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-11+48.3%+0.0%+48.3%
2009-03-12+41.2%+0.0%+41.2%
2009-03-05+39.5%−3.6%+39.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$62.2B
market cap
$7.57
EPS (TTM)
18.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-19
next earnings
Revenue$104.8B
'20'25
Net income$3.7B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr3.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr22.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.26
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $154.68$108.32$190.72
  • DCF (intrinsic)$141.46
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$185.04
  • Analyst target · range $114.00–$162.00$132.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$154.68

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
−0.1%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.7%
n=19
Mar
58%
+2.1%
n=19
Apr
58%
+2.5%
n=19
May
42%
−2.5%
n=19
Jun
58%
−1.0%
n=19
Jul
89%
+5.3%
n=19
Aug
58%
+3.4%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.5%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.5%
n=18
Nov
44%
+2.6%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$170$822026-08-25: 1 insider sale, $8.2M — Cornell Brian C2026-08-24: 1 insider sale, $2.6M — Kremer Melissa K2026-08-21: 1 insider sale, $151K — LIEGEL MATTHEW A2026-06-29: 1 insider sale, $966K — ROATH LISA R2026-05-29: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — SYLVESTER CARA A2026-05-27: 2 insider sales, $6.5M — Cornell Brian C …2026-03-17: 1 insider sale, $241K — LIEGEL MATTHEW A2026-03-10: 1 insider sale, $6.1M — Cornell Brian C2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $6.3M2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $7.8M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $966K2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $11.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Cornell Brian C — Sale on 2026-08-25, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kremer Melissa K — Sale on 2026-08-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer LIEGEL MATTHEW A — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer ROATH LISA R — Sale on 2026-06-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer SYLVESTER CARA A — Sale on 2026-05-29, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Cornell Brian C — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Cornell Brian C — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer LIEGEL MATTHEW A — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Cornell Brian C — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25Cornell Brian CdirectorSale50,000 @ $163.56$8.2M−25.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open143,270Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-24Kremer Melissa KofficerSale15,500 @ $169.96$2.6M−21.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open56,981Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-21LIEGEL MATTHEW AofficerSale926 @ $163.51$151K−7.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open12,266Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-29ROATH LISA RofficerSale7,000 @ $138.07$966K−16.5% of holding+10.5%not yet — horizon still open35,465Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-29SYLVESTER CARA AofficerSale10,000 @ $125.89$1.3M−17.9% of holding+3.8%not yet — horizon still open45,930Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-27Cornell Brian CdirectorSale49,000 @ $129.84$6.4M−20.1% of holding+12.0%not yet — horizon still open194,270Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27Cornell Brian CdirectorSale1,000 @ $130.55$131K−0.5% of holding+12.0%not yet — horizon still open193,270Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17LIEGEL MATTHEW AofficerSale2,053 @ $117.19$241K−14.5% of holding+1.2%+20.7%12,143Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Cornell Brian CdirectorSale50,000 @ $121.76$6.1M−20.3% of holding+2.0%+18.5%196,453Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-10LIEGEL MATTHEW AofficerSale2,044 @ $100.90$206K−15.6% of holding−0.3%−18.8%11,064Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-28Cornell Brian CdirectorSale45,000 @ $96.18$4.3M−15.4% of holding−1.5%−23.1%246,453Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11Cornell Brian CdirectorSale45,000 @ $113.37$5.1M−14.8% of holding−12.4%−35.7%258,843Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-07LIEGEL MATTHEW AofficerSale287 @ $113.52$33K−3.8% of holding−5.8%−32.0%7,173Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

116 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03DePinto Joseph MichaeldirectorAward / grant1,0071,007Form 4
2026-06-30McGee Grant BofficerAward / grant15,28219,409Form 4
2026-06-30McGee Grant BofficerAward / grant4,1274,127Form 4
2026-04-07Cornell Brian CdirectorWithheld for tax21,697180,323Form 4
2026-04-07FIDDELKE MICHAEL JofficerWithheld for tax5,131124,790Form 4
2026-04-07Kremer Melissa KofficerWithheld for tax3,08872,145Form 4
2026-04-07SYLVESTER CARA AofficerWithheld for tax1,98355,930Form 4
2026-04-07Vemana PratabkumardirectorWithheld for tax1,16650,520Form 4
2026-04-07ROATH LISA RofficerWithheld for tax75142,164Form 4
2026-04-07LIEGEL MATTHEW AofficerWithheld for tax41113,069Form 4
2026-04-07Kremer Melissa KofficerAward / grant7,25975,233Form 4
2026-04-07ROATH LISA RofficerAward / grant2,44342,915Form 4
2026-04-07Cornell Brian CdirectorAward / grant50,777202,020Form 4
2026-04-07SYLVESTER CARA AofficerAward / grant5,80957,913Form 4
2026-04-07FIDDELKE MICHAEL JofficerAward / grant11,250129,921Form 4
2026-04-07LIEGEL MATTHEW AofficerAward / grant1,33713,480Form 4
2026-04-07Vemana PratabkumardirectorAward / grant3,63451,686Form 4
2026-04-01Bratspies Stephen BdirectorAward / grant1,7911,791Form 4
2026-03-17LIEGEL MATTHEW AofficerDiscretionary2,1124,399Form 4
2026-03-13LIEGEL MATTHEW AofficerWithheld for tax37114,196Form 4
2026-03-13ROATH LISA RofficerWithheld for tax20340,472Form 4
2026-03-13Vemana PratabkumardirectorWithheld for tax19948,052Form 4
2026-03-12LIEGEL MATTHEW AofficerWithheld for tax24614,567Form 4
2026-03-11Cornell Brian CdirectorWithheld for tax11,050151,243Form 4
2026-03-11FIDDELKE MICHAEL JofficerWithheld for tax1,952118,671Form 4
2026-03-11Kremer Melissa KofficerWithheld for tax1,26067,974Form 4
2026-03-11SYLVESTER CARA AofficerWithheld for tax1,01052,104Form 4
2026-03-11Vemana PratabkumardirectorWithheld for tax62548,251Form 4
2026-03-11ROATH LISA RofficerWithheld for tax15240,675Form 4
2026-03-11Hoke John R IIIdirectorAward / grant1,9561,956Form 4
2026-03-11BAKER DOUGLAS M JRdirectorAward / grant1,67644,294Form 4
2026-03-11BOUDREAUX GAILdirectorAward / grant2,68212,192Form 4
2026-03-11Barrett George SdirectorAward / grant2,89123,325Form 4
2026-03-11Rice Derica WdirectorAward / grant2,68214,622Form 4
2026-03-11STOCKTON DMITRI LdirectorAward / grant2,89122,586Form 4
2026-03-11SYLVESTER CARA AofficerAward / grant16,75944,315Form 4
2026-03-11SYLVESTER CARA AofficerAward / grant8,79953,114Form 4
2026-03-11ABNEY DAVID PdirectorAward / grant1,6767,815Form 4
2026-03-11Kremer Melissa KofficerAward / grant7,79469,234Form 4
2026-03-11LIEGEL MATTHEW AofficerAward / grant3,68814,813Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-11-062025-10-24$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-11-062025-10-24$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousepurchase2025-09-172025-08-18$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousepurchase2025-09-122025-02-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-05$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.