Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.89 · now $6.89 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TG has typically landed between $5.62 and $8.12 — a range of −18.5% to +17.9% from the issuance price $6.89.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.89) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.89 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $6.89 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.89 (+0.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.4–$7.38
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.62–$8.12
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-11 | −45.8% | −45.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −40.5% | −40.5% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-10 | −39.3% | −39.3% | +4.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-03-14 | +63.3% | +0.0% | +63.6% |
| 2020-11-06 | +60.0% | +0.0% | +60.0% |
| 2024-03-06 | +56.9% | −4.1% | +56.9% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
39%
−0.8%
n=18
Feb
53%
−0.8%
n=19
Mar
42%
+2.6%
n=19
Apr
53%
+0.5%
n=19
May
32%
−6.1%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.3%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.7%
n=19
Aug
53%
−2.1%
n=19
Sep
42%
+0.8%
n=19
Oct
50%
+0.7%
n=18
Nov
61%
+3.0%
n=18
Dec
72%
+8.1%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 14 @ $8.00 | $112 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 361,126 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 14 @ $8.00 | $112 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 361,126 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13 @ $8.00 | $104 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 361,127 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 781 @ $8.00 | $6K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 361,140 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 780 @ $8.00 | $6K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 361,140 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,318 @ $8.12 | $35K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 361,920 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,318 @ $8.12 | $35K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 361,921 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,318 @ $8.12 | $35K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 361,920 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,472 @ $8.01 | $28K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 366,239 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,472 @ $8.01 | $28K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 366,238 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,472 @ $8.01 | $28K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 366,238 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | DasGupta Arijit | director | Purchase | 2,093 @ $7.87 | $16K | +1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 140,097 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,719 @ $8.02 | $62K | −2.0% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 369,710 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,718 @ $8.02 | $62K | −2.0% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 369,711 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,718 @ $8.02 | $62K | −2.0% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 369,710 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | DasGupta Arijit | director | Purchase | 907 @ $7.87 | $7K | +0.7% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 138,004 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,021 @ $8.00 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 377,428 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,020 @ $8.00 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 377,429 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,020 @ $8.00 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 377,429 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,170 @ $8.07 | $106K | −3.4% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 378,449 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,170 @ $8.07 | $106K | −3.4% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 378,449 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,170 @ $8.07 | $106K | −3.4% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 378,449 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 17,148 @ $8.19 | $140K | −4.2% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 391,619 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 17,148 @ $8.19 | $140K | −4.2% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 391,619 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 17,148 @ $8.19 | $140K | −4.2% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 391,619 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 20,146 @ $8.16 | $164K | −4.7% of holding | −10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 408,767 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 20,146 @ $8.16 | $164K | −4.7% of holding | −10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 408,767 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 20,145 @ $8.16 | $164K | −4.7% of holding | −10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 408,767 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,152 @ $8.00 | $49K | −1.4% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 428,913 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,152 @ $8.00 | $49K | −1.4% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 428,912 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,152 @ $8.00 | $49K | −1.4% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 428,913 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 15,809 @ $8.04 | $127K | −3.5% of holding | −9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 435,064 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 15,808 @ $8.04 | $127K | −3.5% of holding | −9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 435,065 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 15,808 @ $8.04 | $127K | −3.5% of holding | −9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 435,065 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,351 @ $8.00 | $19K | −0.5% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 450,873 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,351 @ $8.00 | $19K | −0.5% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 450,873 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,350 @ $8.00 | $19K | −0.5% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 450,873 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,334 @ $7.76 | $26K | −0.7% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 453,223 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,333 @ $7.76 | $26K | −0.7% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 453,224 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,333 @ $7.76 | $26K | −0.7% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 453,224 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 34 @ $8.00 | $272 | −0.0% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 456,557 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 33 @ $8.00 | $264 | −0.0% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 456,557 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 33 @ $8.00 | $264 | −0.0% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 456,557 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 848 @ $7.77 | $7K | −0.2% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 456,590 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 847 @ $7.77 | $7K | −0.2% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 456,590 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 847 @ $7.77 | $7K | −0.2% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 456,591 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 197 @ $8.00 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 457,438 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 197 @ $8.00 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 457,437 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 197 @ $8.00 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 457,438 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5 @ $8.00 | $40 | −0.0% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 457,634 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4 @ $8.00 | $32 | −0.0% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 457,635 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4 @ $8.00 | $32 | −0.0% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 457,635 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,193 @ $8.02 | $34K | −0.9% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 457,639 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,193 @ $8.02 | $34K | −0.9% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 457,639 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,192 @ $8.02 | $34K | −0.9% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 457,639 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,352 @ $8.01 | $83K | −2.2% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 461,831 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | GOTTWALD JOHN D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,352 @ $8.01 | $83K | −2.2% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 461,832 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,351 @ $8.01 | $83K | −2.2% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 461,832 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | GOTTWALD WILLIAM M | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,144 @ $8.00 | $81K | −2.1% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 472,183 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Gottwald James T. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,144 @ $8.00 | $81K | −2.1% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 472,183 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
32 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | PRATT GREGORY A | director | Award / grant | 3,941 | 98,055 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Parks David | director | Award / grant | 2,895 | 4,630 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | VLAHCEVIC CHRISTINE R | director | Award / grant | 2,895 | 16,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Boiter Cynthia | director | Award / grant | 1,718 | 1,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | HANIFORD JOSEPH E | director | Award / grant | 1,272 | 1,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Donnelly Kevin Cyril | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,533 | 171,448 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | DasGupta Arijit | director | Withheld for tax | 5,269 | 136,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Brickhouse Frasier W II | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,523 | 67,592 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Goldschmiedt Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,393 | 25,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | PRATT GREGORY A | director | Award / grant | 3,730 | 94,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Newsome Kenneth | director | Award / grant | 2,740 | 78,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | VLAHCEVIC CHRISTINE R | director | Award / grant | 2,740 | 13,783 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | FREEMAN GEORGE C III | director | Award / grant | 2,740 | 81,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tack Carl E. III | director | Award / grant | 2,740 | 78,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | SNEAD THOMAS G JR | director | Award / grant | 2,740 | 80,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Parks David | director | Award / grant | 1,735 | 1,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | DasGupta Arijit | director | Award / grant | 40,375 | 141,366 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Donnelly Kevin Cyril | officer | Award / grant | 31,078 | 179,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Brickhouse Frasier W II | officer | Award / grant | 20,672 | 70,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Goldschmiedt Paul | officer | Award / grant | 7,994 | 26,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | PRATT GREGORY A | director | Award / grant | 4,161 | 90,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | VLAHCEVIC CHRISTINE R | director | Award / grant | 3,057 | 11,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Newsome Kenneth | director | Award / grant | 3,057 | 76,116 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | FREEMAN GEORGE C III | director | Award / grant | 3,057 | 78,619 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | SNEAD THOMAS G JR | director | Award / grant | 3,057 | 77,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Tack Carl E. III | director | Award / grant | 3,057 | 76,116 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | PRATT GREGORY A | director | Award / grant | 3,871 | 86,223 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Tack Carl E. III | director | Award / grant | 2,844 | 73,059 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Newsome Kenneth | director | Award / grant | 2,844 | 73,059 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | VLAHCEVIC CHRISTINE R | director | Award / grant | 2,844 | 7,986 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | SNEAD THOMAS G JR | director | Award / grant | 2,844 | 74,661 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | FREEMAN GEORGE C III | director | Award / grant | 2,844 | 75,562 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.