Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.78 · now $16.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TFSL has typically landed between $15.21 and $18.81 — a range of −9.3% to +12.1% from the issuance price $16.78.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,861 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-04-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TFSL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.78 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.78 (+0.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $15.94–$17.62
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.21–$18.81
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,861 windows spanning 2007-04-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-03-05 | −41.4% | −41.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-06 | −39.3% | −41.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-04 | −37.9% | −37.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-10-20 | +23.0% | −0.2% | +23.2% |
| 2023-10-23 | +22.9% | +0.0% | +23.5% |
| 2021-02-08 | +22.9% | +0.0% | +23.8% |
4,861 overlapping windows · 2007-04-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
47%
−0.1%
n=19
Feb
63%
+0.8%
n=19
Mar
63%
−0.5%
n=19
Apr
58%
+0.1%
n=19
May
70%
+1.9%
n=20
Jun
40%
−0.2%
n=20
Jul
60%
+1.7%
n=20
Aug
50%
−1.2%
n=20
Sep
40%
−0.3%
n=20
Oct
63%
+1.8%
n=19
Nov
53%
+2.1%
n=19
Dec
58%
+1.9%
n=19
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Stefanski Bradley T | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $16.94 | $169K | −20.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 38,720 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Stefanski Marc A | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $17.28 | $173K | −26.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,150 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Williams Ashley H | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $17.28 | $173K | −26.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,150 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Sale | 5,861 @ $17.53 | $103K | −13.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 38,480 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Anderson Barbara J. | director | Sale | 6,100 @ $17.83 | $109K | −98.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Sale | 600 @ $18.00 | $11K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 38,480 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Stefanski Gavin B | officer | Sale | 6,500 @ $18.35 | $119K | −25.2% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,266 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Sale | 4,316 @ $16.80 | $73K | −10.1% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,480 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Sale | 4,105 @ $15.91 | $65K | −9.6% of holding | +14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,480 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Weir Daniel F | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $15.85 | $111K | +16.3% of holding | +14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,943 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Rubino Andrew J | officer | Sale | 594 @ $16.09 | $10K | −2.7% of holding | +13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,310 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Zbanek Cathy W | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $15.26 | $153K | −14.1% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,101 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Weir Daniel F | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $15.02 | $105K | +19.5% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,943 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Weir Daniel F | director | Purchase | 21,000 @ $14.91 | $313K | +69.9% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,043 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Sale | 13,756 @ $14.91 | $205K | −26.3% of holding | +16.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,480 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Rubino Andrew J | officer | Sale | 6,600 @ $15.18 | $100K | −23.6% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,310 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-12 | Asher Anthony J | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $13.37 | $67K | +11.3% of holding | +6.4% | +13.2% | 49,314 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Stefanski Gavin B | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $14.97 | $105K | −21.4% of holding | −3.2% | +10.2% | 25,766 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Stefanski Marc A | director | Sale | 36,844 @ $15.12 | $557K | −33.9% of holding | −7.6% | +5.9% | 71,997 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Stefanski Marc A | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $15.00 | $15K | −0.9% of holding | −5.8% | +7.8% | 108,841 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Stefanski Marc A | director | Sale | 7,149 @ $15.03 | $107K | −6.1% of holding | −5.3% | +9.0% | 109,848 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Sale | 12,911 @ $14.95 | $193K | −19.2% of holding | −3.6% | +8.8% | 54,325 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Sale | 2,089 @ $14.95 | $31K | −3.8% of holding | −3.6% | +8.8% | 52,236 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Stefanski Marc A | director | Sale | 7 @ $15.00 | $105 | −0.0% of holding | −3.6% | +8.8% | 109,841 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Anderson Barbara J. | director | Sale | 11,000 @ $14.21 | $156K | −64.0% of holding | −2.4% | +19.6% | 6,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Asher Anthony J | director | Purchase | 1,439 @ $13.89 | $20K | +3.8% of holding | −0.7% | +11.7% | 39,114 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Williams Ashley H | director | Sale | 7,600 @ $13.66 | $104K | −31.5% of holding | −0.2% | +13.7% | 16,510 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | Zbanek Cathy W | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $14.13 | $283K | −27.3% of holding | −3.4% | +10.4% | 53,197 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Rubino Andrew J | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $14.23 | $71K | −20.7% of holding | −2.8% | +1.9% | 19,126 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $13.85 | $208K | −23.6% of holding | +1.9% | +6.9% | 48,527 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Weir Daniel F | director | Sale | 3,900 @ $13.37 | $52K | −20.7% of holding | −3.2% | +3.2% | 14,941 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $13.70 | $206K | −19.1% of holding | −6.8% | +0.6% | 63,527 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Stefanski Marc A | director | Sale | 7,200 @ $14.17 | $102K | −100.0% of holding | −7.8% | +0.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Asher Anthony J | director | Purchase | 37,675 @ $13.26 | $500K | ownership Δ n/a | −3.3% | +3.8% | 37,675 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Anderson Barbara J. | director | Sale | 12,000 @ $13.05 | $157K | −85.1% of holding | +0.4% | +15.7% | 2,100 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Stefanski Gavin B | officer | Sale | 3,505 @ $13.47 | $47K | −9.7% of holding | −3.1% | −7.6% | 32,766 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-08 | Asher Anthony J | director | Sale | 59,507 @ $13.40 | $797K | −99.8% of holding | −7.1% | −13.7% | 100 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-07 | Zbanek Cathy W | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $13.46 | $202K | −17.0% of holding | −7.5% | −14.1% | 73,197 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $13.48 | $202K | −16.0% of holding | −7.9% | −16.6% | 78,527 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Rubino Andrew J | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $13.61 | $82K | −19.9% of holding | −8.7% | −16.6% | 24,126 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Asher Anthony J | director | Sale | 13,500 @ $12.15 | $164K | −18.5% of holding | +1.7% | −2.2% | 59,607 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Stefanski Marc A | director | Sale | 17,555 @ $13.27 | $233K | −17.2% of holding | −0.1% | −2.0% | 84,229 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Stefanski Marc A | director | Sale | 35,000 @ $13.12 | $459K | −25.6% of holding | +1.7% | +2.3% | 101,784 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Stefanski Marc A | director | Sale | 35,000 @ $13.00 | $455K | −20.4% of holding | +1.3% | +2.9% | 136,784 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Stefanski Marc A | director | Sale | 22,000 @ $13.13 | $289K | −11.4% of holding | +1.2% | +4.2% | 171,784 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Weir Daniel F | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $13.11 | $131K | −34.7% of holding | +1.2% | +4.2% | 18,841 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Stefanski Marc A | director | Sale | 19,445 @ $13.28 | $258K | −9.1% of holding | −1.2% | +1.2% | 193,784 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Stefanski Marc A | director | Sale | 21,000 @ $13.22 | $278K | −9.0% of holding | −0.9% | +2.3% | 213,229 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Sale | 12,000 @ $13.59 | $163K | −11.4% of holding | −0.6% | −4.7% | 93,527 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-07 | Stefanski Gavin B | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $13.72 | $96K | −16.2% of holding | −2.0% | −9.1% | 36,271 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Zbanek Cathy W | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $13.72 | $274K | −18.5% of holding | −1.7% | −10.0% | 88,197 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
227 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Withheld for tax | 46,932 | 44,341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Option exercise | 52,793 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Option exercise | 52,793 | 91,273 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Withheld for tax | 4,107 | 39,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Option exercise | 4,707 | 43,187 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Option exercise | 4,707 | 52,793 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Weir Daniel F | director | Gift | 5,000 | 10,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | LaRocca James E | officer | Award / grant | 4,600 | 4,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Zbanek Cathy W | officer | Withheld for tax | 61,334 | 74,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Zbanek Cathy W | officer | Option exercise | 67,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Zbanek Cathy W | officer | Option exercise | 67,500 | 136,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Withheld for tax | 45,684 | 42,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 88,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 57,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Zbanek Cathy W | officer | Withheld for tax | 55,533 | 68,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Zbanek Cathy W | officer | Option exercise | 60,000 | 67,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Zbanek Cathy W | officer | Option exercise | 60,000 | 124,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Miller Susanne N. | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,248 | 20,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Miller Susanne N. | officer | Option exercise | 11,000 | 30,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Miller Susanne N. | officer | Option exercise | 11,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Long Sandra M | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,658 | 20,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Long Sandra M | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Long Sandra M | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 25,076 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Withheld for tax | 75,895 | 42,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Option exercise | 80,000 | 118,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | WEIL MEREDITH S | director | Option exercise | 80,000 | 107,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Zbanek Cathy W | officer | Withheld for tax | 56,749 | 64,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Zbanek Cathy W | officer | Option exercise | 60,000 | 121,101 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Zbanek Cathy W | officer | Option exercise | 60,000 | 127,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Rubino Andrew J | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,406 | 21,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Rubino Andrew J | officer | Option exercise | 11,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Rubino Andrew J | officer | Option exercise | 11,000 | 32,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Stefanski Marc A | director | Gift | 1,500 | 29,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Stefanski Marc A | director | Gift | 1,500 | 70,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Asher Anthony J | director | Other acquisition | 5,200 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Asher Anthony J | director | Other acquisition | 44,314 | 44,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Asher Anthony J | director | Other acquisition | 39,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Bauer Terrence L. | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Zbanek Cathy W | officer | Award / grant | 15,800 | 15,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Stefanski Marc A | director | Award / grant | 40,200 | 40,200 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.