TFINTriumph Financial, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $63.66 · now $63.66 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TFIN has typically landed between $51.84 and $76.25 — a range of −18.6% to +19.8% from the issuance price $63.66.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,959 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-11-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($63.66) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TFIN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $63.66 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$51.84worst · -18.6%$76.25best · +19.8%
  • now $63.66 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $63.55 (-0.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $57.6–$69.5
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $51.84–$76.25
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,959 windows spanning 2014-11-07 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−53.9%−53.9%+0.5%
2020-02-11−51.9%−51.9%+1.0%
2020-02-20−51.0%−54.1%+0.0%
3 best
2020-09-23+60.0%+0.0%+60.0%
2020-09-21+59.8%−0.1%+59.8%
2020-09-22+59.4%+0.0%+60.0%

2,959 overlapping windows · 2014-11-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
58%
−0.7%
n=12
Feb
50%
+3.3%
n=12
Mar
50%
−0.1%
n=12
Apr
42%
−3.0%
n=12
May
58%
−0.1%
n=12
Jun
50%
+1.6%
n=12
Jul
83%
+7.6%
n=12
Aug
50%
+0.4%
n=12
Sep
58%
+1.3%
n=12
Oct
45%
+4.4%
n=11
Nov
100%
+9.7%
n=11
Dec
42%
−1.3%
n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$81$472026-08-20: 1 insider sale, $214K — Schreyer Edward Joseph2026-08-04: 1 insider sale, $296K — Nelson Adam D2026-05-22: 1 insider sale, $193K — Schreyer Edward Joseph2026-05-08: 1 insider purchase, $469K — Ritterbusch Todd2026-03-10: 1 insider sale, $25K — Voss William B.2026-02-27: 1 insider purchase, $500K — Graft Aaron P2025-12-18: 1 insider sale, $196K — Nelson Adam D2025-09-02: 1 insider sale, $440K — Schreyer Edward Joseph2025-08-25: 1 insider sale, $211K — Nelson Adam D2025-08-22: 1 insider sale, $391K — Graft Aaron P2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $603K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $440K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $196K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $500K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $25K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $469K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $193K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $510K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Schreyer Edward Joseph — Sale on 2026-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Nelson Adam D — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Schreyer Edward Joseph — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Ritterbusch Todd — Purchase on 2026-05-08, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Voss William B. — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Graft Aaron P — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Nelson Adam D — Sale on 2025-12-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Schreyer Edward Joseph — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Nelson Adam D — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Graft Aaron P — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20Schreyer Edward JosephofficerSale2,900 @ $73.75$214K−15.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open15,534Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04Nelson Adam DofficerSale3,750 @ $79.05$296K−13.6% of holding−12.8%not yet — horizon still open23,755Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-22Schreyer Edward JosephofficerSale2,900 @ $66.70$193K−13.6% of holding+14.7%not yet — horizon still open18,434Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-08Ritterbusch ToddofficerPurchase7,000 @ $67.01$469K+44.3% of holding+9.2%not yet — horizon still open22,804Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-10Voss William B.officerSale427 @ $59.57$25K−3.2% of holding+8.8%−0.1%12,757Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-27Graft Aaron PdirectorPurchase8,949 @ $55.87$500K+6.4% of holding+8.9%+15.9%149,182Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-18Nelson Adam DofficerSale3,000 @ $65.18$196K−10.8% of holding+10.0%+7.4%24,832Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-02Schreyer Edward JosephofficerSale7,275 @ $60.43$440K−28.9% of holding−26.2%−6.5%17,919Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-25Nelson Adam DofficerSale3,500 @ $60.39$211K−11.2% of holding−16.3%−12.5%27,832Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-22Graft Aaron PdirectorSale6,500 @ $60.18$391K−4.3% of holding−11.5%−12.8%144,558Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-01Nelson Adam DofficerSale3,500 @ $60.16$211K−10.0% of holding−9.6%−9.0%31,332Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-09Schreyer Edward JosephofficerSale7,275 @ $60.00$437K−22.4% of holding+4.9%−13.8%25,194Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-09Graft Aaron PdirectorSale6,500 @ $60.15$391K−4.1% of holding+4.9%−13.8%151,058Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Deadman Davis RdirectorPurchase399 @ $21.50$9K+1.5% of holding+0.8%−21.2%26,500Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-02Rafferty Michael PdirectorPurchase688 @ $21.50$15K+8.0% of holding+1.9%−21.1%9,338Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-02Deadman Davis RdirectorPurchase601 @ $21.70$13K+2.4% of holding+1.9%−21.1%26,101Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-01Rafferty Michael PdirectorPurchase650 @ $21.27$14K+8.1% of holding−0.8%−21.9%8,650Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-29Barnes Harrison B.directorPurchase1,000 @ $53.65$54K+4.9% of holding+0.7%−16.7%21,565Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-25Deadman Davis RdirectorPurchase1,500 @ $53.50$80K+17.2% of holding+4.9%−10.3%10,220Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-24Anderson Charles AdirectorPurchase3,950 @ $50.96$201K+3.1% of holding+6.1%−13.2%132,501Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-23BRADFORD DEBRA AdirectorPurchase1,508 @ $49.39$74K+82.0% of holding+8.3%−2.2%3,348Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-22Sepulveda Carlos MdirectorPurchase6,765 @ $47.64$322K+2.0% of holding+9.8%−4.1%350,455Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-22Sepulveda Carlos MdirectorPurchase265 @ $47.86$13Kownership Δ n/a+9.8%−4.1%265Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-21Graft Aaron PdirectorSale9,000 @ $68.96$621K−5.9% of holding+0.0%−19.1%142,533Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

89 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-01Schreyer Edward JosephofficerWithheld for tax3,43921,334Form 4
2026-05-01Voss William B.officerWithheld for tax1,67215,996Form 4
2026-05-01Ritterbusch ToddofficerWithheld for tax1,43115,804Form 4
2026-05-01Nelson Adam DofficerWithheld for tax1,19428,198Form 4
2026-05-01Anderson Charles AlbertdirectorAward / grant1,258129,228Form 4
2026-05-01Nelson Adam DofficerAward / grant1,85026,682Form 4
2026-05-01Nelson Adam DofficerAward / grant3,4323,432Form 4
2026-05-01Sepulveda Carlos MdirectorAward / grant1,628352,940Form 4
2026-05-01Voss William B.officerAward / grant2,22014,977Form 4
2026-05-01Schreyer Edward JosephofficerAward / grant4,16322,082Form 4
2026-05-01Schreyer Edward JosephofficerAward / grant2,69124,773Form 4
2026-05-01Graft Aaron PdirectorAward / grant9,391158,573Form 4
2026-05-01Graft Aaron PdirectorAward / grant10,730169,303Form 4
2026-05-01Graft Aaron PdirectorAward / grant17,41817,418Form 4
2026-05-01Voss William B.officerAward / grant4,1184,118Form 4
2026-05-01Schreyer Edward JosephofficerAward / grant7,7227,722Form 4
2026-05-01Ritterbusch ToddofficerAward / grant2,35915,218Form 4
2026-05-01Ritterbusch ToddofficerAward / grant2,01717,235Form 4
2026-05-01Ritterbusch ToddofficerAward / grant4,3764,376Form 4
2026-05-01Nelson Adam DofficerAward / grant2,71029,392Form 4
2026-05-01Deadman Davis RdirectorAward / grant1,25810,434Form 4
2026-05-01Easley LauradirectorAward / grant1,2589,559Form 4
2026-05-01BRADFORD DEBRA AdirectorAward / grant1,2588,537Form 4
2026-05-01Rafferty Michael PdirectorAward / grant1,52838,571Form 4
2026-05-01McSherry Melissa KdirectorAward / grant1,2581,871Form 4
2026-05-01Voss William B.officerAward / grant2,69117,668Form 4
2026-05-01Sparks C TodddirectorAward / grant1,25850,757Form 4
2026-03-10Voss William B.officerOption exercise42713,184Form 4
2026-03-10Voss William B.officerOption exercise4270Form 4
2025-12-16Deadman Davis RdirectorGift1,6579,176Form 4
2025-12-15Anderson Charles AlbertdirectorGift5,144127,970Form 4
2025-12-11Graft Aaron PdirectorGift4,325140,233Form 4
2025-07-01Anderson Charles AlbertdirectorAward / grant613133,114Form 4
2025-07-01BRADFORD DEBRA AdirectorAward / grant6137,279Form 4
2025-07-01Easley LauradirectorAward / grant6538,301Form 4
2025-07-01Rafferty Michael PdirectorAward / grant61337,043Form 4
2025-07-01Sparks C TodddirectorAward / grant61349,499Form 4
2025-07-01Davis Richard LorendirectorAward / grant61355,280Form 4
2025-07-01Deadman Davis RdirectorAward / grant61310,833Form 4
2025-07-01Sepulveda Carlos MdirectorAward / grant857351,312Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.