TFCTruist Financial CorporationFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $48.44 · now $48.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TFC has typically landed between $42.38 and $55.29 — a range of −12.5% to +14.1% from the issuance price $48.44.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($48.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TFC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $48.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$42.38worst · -12.5%$55.29best · +14.1%
  • now $48.44 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $48.73 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $46–$51.46
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $42.38–$55.29
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−53.2%−53.2%+0.0%
2020-02-13−50.1%−50.1%+0.9%
2020-02-18−47.6%−49.3%+2.4%
3 best
2009-04-06+64.1%−1.1%+64.1%
2009-04-08+57.6%+0.0%+65.8%
2009-03-30+52.3%+0.0%+52.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$64.5B
market cap
$4.22
EPS (TTM)
12.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-16
next earnings
Revenue$30.4B
'20'25
Net income$5.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$5.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr17.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr8.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.07
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $48.44$29.53$253.81
  • DCF (intrinsic)$238.35
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$69.13
  • Analyst target · range $45.00–$62.00$56.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$48.44

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
72%
+1.7%
n=18
Feb
42%
−0.3%
n=19
Mar
53%
−2.6%
n=19
Apr
53%
+3.3%
n=19
May
53%
−0.7%
n=19
Jun
53%
−1.3%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.7%
n=19
Aug
53%
−0.2%
n=19
Sep
32%
+0.7%
n=19
Oct
61%
+0.9%
n=18
Nov
67%
+3.4%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$55$402026-07-31: 1 insider sale, $689K — Wilson Donta L2026-07-23: 1 insider sale, $202K — Boyer K. David Jr.2026-07-20: 1 insider sale, $694K — ROGERS WILLIAM H JR2026-02-02: 1 insider sale, $184K — Powell Cynthia B2026-01-26: 1 insider sale, $652K — Maguire Michael Baron2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $240K — Boyer K. David Jr.2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $240K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $652K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $184K2026-07: 3 open-market sales, $1.6M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Wilson Donta L — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Boyer K. David Jr. — Sale on 2026-07-23, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ROGERS WILLIAM H JR — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Powell Cynthia B — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Maguire Michael Baron — Sale on 2026-01-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Boyer K. David Jr. — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-31Wilson Donta LdirectorSale13,280 @ $51.85$689K−19.2% of holding−7.0%not yet — horizon still open56,009Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-23Boyer K. David Jr.directorSale3,986 @ $50.70$202K−28.0% of holding−5.3%not yet — horizon still open10,270Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-20ROGERS WILLIAM H JRdirectorSale13,250 @ $52.36$694K−100.0% of holding−0.7%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02Powell Cynthia BofficerSale3,500 @ $52.49$184K−84.0% of holding−4.3%−9.4%667Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-26Maguire Michael BaronofficerSale13,000 @ $50.13$652K−14.9% of holding+1.7%+0.3%74,323Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-25Boyer K. David Jr.directorSale5,160 @ $46.45$240K−33.7% of holding+6.7%−6.5%10,153Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-22Bender Bradley DofficerSale12,540 @ $45.19$567K−96.2% of holding−2.1%+3.7%500Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-04Boyer K. David Jr.directorSale4,966 @ $46.20$229K−30.6% of holding−2.9%−9.7%11,246Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

135 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Lyons Michael P.directorAward / grant84,95184,951Form 4
2026-09-01Lyons Michael P.directorAward / grant266,990266,990Form 4
2026-07-28Bessant Catherine PdirectorAward / grant2,3382,338Form 4
2026-06-01Bender Bradley DofficerWithheld for tax9,11512,781Form 4
2026-06-01Bender Bradley DofficerOption exercise16,1490Form 4
2026-06-01Bender Bradley DofficerOption exercise16,14921,896Form 4
2026-06-01Bender Bradley DofficerOption exercise16,14921,896Form 4
2026-03-13ROGERS WILLIAM H JRdirectorWithheld for tax32,861968,217Form 4
2026-03-13Wilson Donta LdirectorWithheld for tax10,20469,289Form 4
2026-03-13Maguire Michael BaronofficerWithheld for tax7,95184,672Form 4
2026-03-13Lesher KristinofficerWithheld for tax7,43371,520Form 4
2026-03-13Stengel Scott AofficerWithheld for tax3,00111,977Form 4
2026-03-13Powell Cynthia BofficerWithheld for tax2,4767,386Form 4
2026-03-13Bender Bradley DofficerWithheld for tax2,3065,747Form 4
2026-03-13Bender Bradley DofficerWithheld for tax1,5943,930Form 4
2026-03-13Bender Bradley DofficerWithheld for tax4372,629Form 4
2026-03-13Bender Bradley DofficerOption exercise4,1238,243Form 4
2026-03-13Bender Bradley DofficerOption exercise4,1238,053Form 4
2026-03-13Bender Bradley DofficerOption exercise8033,066Form 4
2026-03-13Bender Bradley DofficerOption exercise2,8955,524Form 4
2026-03-13Powell Cynthia BofficerOption exercise1,9299,862Form 4
2026-03-13Bender Bradley DofficerOption exercise8030Form 4
2026-03-13Bender Bradley DofficerOption exercise2,8952,895Form 4
2026-03-13Powell Cynthia BofficerOption exercise1,9295,543Form 4
2026-03-13Powell Cynthia BofficerOption exercise1,9295,543Form 4
2026-02-24STEIN LAURENCEdirectorAward / grant4,02711,216Form 4
2026-02-24BANNER JENNIFER SdirectorAward / grant4,02723,542Form 4
2026-02-24CLEMENT DALLAS SdirectorAward / grant4,02723,542Form 4
2026-02-24MOREA DONNA SdirectorAward / grant4,02723,542Form 4
2026-02-24SKAINS THOMAS EdirectorAward / grant4,02723,542Form 4
2026-02-24Tanner Bruce LdirectorAward / grant4,02724,895Form 4
2026-02-24Boyer K. David Jr.directorAward / grant4,02714,206Form 4
2026-02-24PATTON CHARLES AdirectorAward / grant4,02723,542Form 4
2026-02-24Bundy Scanlan AgnesdirectorAward / grant4,02719,556Form 4
2026-02-24Haynesworth Linnie MdirectorAward / grant4,02723,542Form 4
2026-02-24PRUZAN JONATHANdirectorAward / grant4,0276,724Form 4
2026-02-23Powell Cynthia BofficerAward / grant3,1867,933Form 4
2026-02-23Powell Cynthia BofficerAward / grant2,2984,747Form 4
2026-02-23Maguire Michael BaronofficerAward / grant2,72977,052Form 4
2026-02-23Maguire Michael BaronofficerAward / grant6,58383,635Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Lloyd K. SmuckerHousesale2026-04-302026-04-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-30$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-25$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.