TEXTerex Corporationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $58.82 · now $58.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TEX has typically landed between $48.96 and $70.89 — a range of −16.8% to +20.5% from the issuance price $58.82.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($58.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TEX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $58.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$48.96worst · -16.8%$70.89best · +20.5%
  • now $58.82 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $59.06 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $54.32–$63.8
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $48.96–$70.89
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−64.4%−64.4%+0.0%
2008-09-25−61.8%−61.8%+2.9%
2008-09-24−56.7%−56.7%+2.8%
3 best
2009-04-08+69.6%+0.0%+69.6%
2008-11-20+68.3%+0.0%+90.9%
2020-05-07+65.1%−4.8%+65.1%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+3.4%
n=18
Feb
53%
+3.5%
n=19
Mar
42%
−2.6%
n=19
Apr
53%
+2.4%
n=19
May
47%
−1.8%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.0%
n=19
Jul
63%
+3.5%
n=19
Aug
47%
−1.5%
n=19
Sep
47%
−3.2%
n=19
Oct
44%
+2.5%
n=18
Nov
61%
+4.0%
n=18
Dec
67%
+4.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$75$422026-06-23: 2 insider sales, $119K — JOHNSTON STEPHEN …2026-06-04: 1 insider sale, $24K — JOHNSTON STEPHEN2026-05-04: 1 insider sale, $361K — Gross Joshua2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $829K — Hegarty Kieran2026-02-12: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Virnig Michael Edward2025-10-31: 1 insider purchase, $99K — RUSH ANDRA2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $253K — POSNER SCOTT2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $253K2025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $99K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $361K2026-06: 3 open-market sales, $143K↑ buys↓ salesofficer JOHNSTON STEPHEN — Sale on 2026-06-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer JOHNSTON STEPHEN — Sale on 2026-06-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer JOHNSTON STEPHEN — Sale on 2026-06-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Gross Joshua — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hegarty Kieran — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Virnig Michael Edward — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RUSH ANDRA — Purchase on 2025-10-31, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer POSNER SCOTT — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-23JOHNSTON STEPHENofficerSale1,327 @ $69.92$93K−8.8% of holding−8.0%not yet — horizon still open13,828Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-23JOHNSTON STEPHENofficerSale375 @ $69.90$26K−2.4% of holding−8.0%not yet — horizon still open15,155Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-04JOHNSTON STEPHENofficerSale379 @ $63.19$24K−2.4% of holding+7.6%not yet — horizon still open15,530Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-04Gross JoshuaofficerSale5,874 @ $61.53$361K−10.8% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open48,706Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17Hegarty KieranofficerSale11,980 @ $69.24$829K−6.5% of holding−12.2%−23.1%173,495Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12Virnig Michael EdwardofficerSale16,330 @ $67.35$1.1M−18.5% of holding−7.5%−21.6%71,994Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-31RUSH ANDRAdirectorPurchase2,120 @ $46.59$99K+9.1% of holding+1.5%+26.4%25,428Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-12POSNER SCOTTofficerSale5,000 @ $50.50$253K−6.6% of holding+2.8%+28.6%70,308Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Gross JoshuaofficerSale5,389 @ $40.75$220K−12.2% of holding+7.3%−7.4%38,755Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-06CARROLL PATRICK SofficerPurchase57 @ $40.37$2K+0.1% of holding−3.5%+18.9%70,993Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-04RUSH ANDRAdirectorPurchase1,325 @ $36.96$49K+6.0% of holding+8.5%+20.1%23,308Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-07CARROLL PATRICK SofficerPurchase52 @ $44.67$2K+0.1% of holding−1.9%+3.1%70,936Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-13SACHS DAVID AdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $49.75$995K+17.0% of holding−2.5%−7.2%137,500Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-12SACHS DAVID AdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $50.16$502K+9.3% of holding−5.8%−10.2%117,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-11SACHS DAVID AdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $51.30$513K+10.3% of holding−5.7%−6.6%107,500Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-11MEESTER SIMONdirectorSale9,877 @ $51.14$505K−7.2% of holding−5.7%−6.6%127,858Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

176 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03CARROLL PATRICK SofficerAward / grant39102,453Form 4
2026-09-03KONG-PICARELLO JENNIFERofficerAward / grant2187,838Form 4
2026-08-05CARROLL PATRICK SofficerAward / grant36102,414Form 4
2026-08-05KONG-PICARELLO JENNIFERofficerAward / grant2087,817Form 4
2026-07-10Jindal NamitaofficerAward / grant26143,595Form 4
2026-07-10CARROLL PATRICK SofficerAward / grant36102,378Form 4
2026-07-10KONG-PICARELLO JENNIFERofficerAward / grant2087,797Form 4
2026-06-26SACHS DAVID AdirectorAward / grant3,760279,590Form 4
2026-06-26Padmanabhan SrikanthdirectorAward / grant3,7606,641Form 4
2026-06-26Steele Kathleen M.directorAward / grant3,76016,287Form 4
2026-06-26Salami OluseundirectorAward / grant3,76016,740Form 4
2026-06-26O'CONNOR SANDRAdirectorAward / grant3,76047,264Form 4
2026-06-26OCONNELL MAUREENdirectorAward / grant1,88018,235Form 4
2026-06-26DAUCH DAVID CdirectorAward / grant1,4678,334Form 4
2026-06-26CHOLMONDELEY PAULA HdirectorAward / grant1,12834,060Form 4
2026-06-04CARROLL PATRICK SofficerAward / grant56102,236Form 4
2026-06-04KONG-PICARELLO JENNIFERofficerAward / grant3187,665Form 4
2026-05-13JOHNSTON STEPHENofficerWithheld for tax1,79915,909Form 4
2026-05-07CARROLL PATRICK SofficerAward / grant37102,180Form 4
2026-05-07KONG-PICARELLO JENNIFERofficerAward / grant2087,634Form 4
2026-04-07Jindal NamitaofficerAward / grant18743,260Form 4
2026-04-07CARROLL PATRICK SofficerAward / grant39102,143Form 4
2026-04-07KONG-PICARELLO JENNIFERofficerAward / grant2187,614Form 4
2026-03-20MEESTER SIMONdirectorWithheld for tax49328,370Form 4
2026-03-20Hegarty KieranofficerWithheld for tax33178,971Form 4
2026-03-20CARROLL PATRICK SofficerWithheld for tax32102,104Form 4
2026-03-20POSNER SCOTTofficerWithheld for tax2684,418Form 4
2026-03-20GEORGE AMYofficerWithheld for tax14106,104Form 4
2026-03-20Gross JoshuaofficerWithheld for tax954,580Form 4
2026-03-20JOHNSTON STEPHENofficerWithheld for tax817,708Form 4
2026-03-20KONG-PICARELLO JENNIFERofficerWithheld for tax687,593Form 4
2026-03-15MEESTER SIMONdirectorWithheld for tax14,926222,838Form 4
2026-03-15Hegarty KieranofficerWithheld for tax9,785161,152Form 4
2026-03-15CARROLL PATRICK SofficerWithheld for tax9,21983,434Form 4
2026-03-15POSNER SCOTTofficerWithheld for tax5,82762,459Form 4
2026-03-15GEORGE AMYofficerWithheld for tax3,38598,343Form 4
2026-03-15Gross JoshuaofficerWithheld for tax1,89136,846Form 4
2026-03-15JOHNSTON STEPHENofficerWithheld for tax1,88617,682Form 4
2026-03-15KONG-PICARELLO JENNIFERofficerWithheld for tax1,84360,551Form 4
2026-03-15Gross JoshuaofficerAward / grant5,74448,776Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Josh GottheimerHousesale2024-05-152024-04-25$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2024-03-072024-02-13$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousepurchase2023-05-192023-04-10$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousepurchase2022-05-162022-04-19$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2022-04-172022-03-15$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousepurchase2022-03-182022-02-15$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousepurchase2021-12-132021-11-04$1–15K
Kelly LoefflerSenatesale2020-05-012020-04-13$15–50K
Bill FloresHousesale2019-05-142019-04-10$1–15K
Bill FloresHousepurchase2019-04-042019-03-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2018-11-092018-10-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-08-102018-07-24$1–15K
Thad CochranSenatepurchase2015-04-142015-03-20$1–15K
Thad CochranSenatepurchase2015-04-142015-03-16$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.