Issued 2026-09-16 at $38.53 · now $38.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TEVA has typically landed between $32.44 and $47.50 — a range of −15.8% to +23.3% from the issuance price $38.53.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($38.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TEVA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $38.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $38.53 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $39.26 (+1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $35.99–$42.53
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $32.44–$47.5
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2017-08-01 | −51.2% | −51.2% | +0.0% |
| 2017-07-31 | −50.7% | −50.7% | +0.0% |
| 2017-07-26 | −50.5% | −50.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-07-14 | +62.7% | +0.0% | +62.7% |
| 2022-07-11 | +60.3% | +0.0% | +60.8% |
| 2022-07-12 | +60.0% | −1.6% | +60.0% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
70%
+5.8%
n=20
Feb
45%
−0.3%
n=20
Mar
55%
−1.0%
n=20
Apr
40%
−0.2%
n=20
May
60%
−0.3%
n=20
Jun
50%
+0.8%
n=20
Jul
55%
+2.0%
n=20
Aug
35%
−3.1%
n=20
Sep
45%
−0.9%
n=20
Oct
35%
−1.5%
n=20
Nov
65%
+4.5%
n=20
Dec
60%
+2.8%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Weiss Amir | officer | Sale | 6,945 @ $37.61 | $261K | −34.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,071 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Weiss Amir | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $37.63 | $94K | −16.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,071 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Satchi-Fainaro Ronit | director | Sale | 415 @ $37.25 | $15K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 111,986 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Lippman Evan | officer | Sale | 18,600 @ $36.57 | $680K | −42.1% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,591 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Zaks Tal Zvi | director | Sale | 17 @ $34.87 | $593 | −0.0% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,247 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Hughes Eric A | director | Sale | 25,578 @ $34.88 | $892K | −15.9% of holding | +4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,877 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Jover Placid | officer | Sale | 12,827 @ $34.88 | $447K | −65.4% of holding | +4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,774 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Shields Matthew | officer | Sale | 9,989 @ $32.19 | $322K | −100.0% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Kalif Eliyahu Sharon | officer | Sale | 106,563 @ $34.10 | $3.6M | −61.9% of holding | −10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,621 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Francis Richard D | officer | Sale | 6,153 @ $34.35 | $211K | −0.5% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,177,529 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Shields Matthew | officer | Sale | 16,195 @ $32.87 | $532K | −61.9% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,989 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Kalif Eliyahu Sharon | officer | Sale | 153,251 @ $35.61 | $5.5M | −47.1% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 172,184 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Lippman Evan | officer | Sale | 35,912 @ $35.58 | $1.3M | −44.8% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,191 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Lippman Evan | officer | Sale | 5,746 @ $35.58 | $204K | −48.5% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,095 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Weiss Amir | officer | Sale | 10,679 @ $36.00 | $384K | −34.8% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,016 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Daniell Richard | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $35.40 | $1.1M | −35.0% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,755 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Sabag Mark | officer | Sale | 144,180 @ $34.99 | $5.0M | −64.1% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,760 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Fox Christine | officer | Sale | 21,258 @ $35.31 | $751K | −25.0% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,647 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Sabag Mark | officer | Sale | 62,102 @ $30.14 | $1.9M | −21.6% of holding | −1.0% | +15.0% | 224,940 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Francis Richard D | officer | Sale | 20,025 @ $31.67 | $634K | −1.7% of holding | −3.1% | +1.3% | 1,170,639 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Shields Matthew | officer | Sale | 17,295 @ $31.67 | $548K | −63.4% of holding | −3.1% | +1.3% | 9,989 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Daniell Richard | officer | Sale | 17,295 @ $31.67 | $548K | −16.8% of holding | −3.1% | +1.3% | 85,755 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Jover Placid | officer | Sale | 14,150 @ $31.67 | $448K | −67.6% of holding | −3.1% | +1.3% | 6,774 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Hughes Eric A | director | Sale | 9,533 @ $31.67 | $302K | −8.1% of holding | −3.1% | +1.3% | 107,711 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Fox Christine | officer | Sale | 7,924 @ $31.67 | $251K | −8.5% of holding | −3.1% | +1.3% | 84,905 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Savage Brian | officer | Sale | 1,127 @ $31.67 | $36K | −9.4% of holding | −3.1% | +1.3% | 10,914 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Daniell Richard | officer | Sale | 37,372 @ $32.95 | $1.2M | −30.4% of holding | −4.6% | +1.6% | 85,755 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Daniell Richard | officer | Sale | 33,512 @ $32.46 | $1.1M | −21.4% of holding | −4.6% | +1.6% | 123,127 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Francis Richard D | officer | Sale | 23,393 @ $32.46 | $759K | −2.0% of holding | −4.6% | +1.6% | 1,148,212 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Daniell Richard | officer | Sale | 20,461 @ $32.46 | $664K | −14.2% of holding | −4.6% | +1.6% | 123,127 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Hughes Eric A | director | Sale | 11,277 @ $32.46 | $366K | −10.4% of holding | −4.6% | +1.6% | 97,590 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Fox Christine | officer | Sale | 9,098 @ $32.46 | $295K | −10.8% of holding | −4.6% | +1.6% | 75,010 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Savage Brian | officer | Sale | 1,489 @ $32.46 | $48K | −19.4% of holding | −4.6% | +1.6% | 6,181 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Savage Brian | officer | Sale | 1,186 @ $32.46 | $39K | −12.3% of holding | −4.6% | +1.6% | 8,461 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Francis Richard D | officer | Sale | 412,032 @ $32.36 | $13.3M | −26.9% of holding | −2.9% | −0.5% | 1,121,382 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Hughes Eric A | director | Sale | 68,685 @ $32.36 | $2.2M | −44.5% of holding | −2.9% | −0.5% | 85,616 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Daniell Richard | officer | Sale | 66,735 @ $32.36 | $2.2M | −35.1% of holding | −2.9% | −0.5% | 123,127 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Daniell Richard | officer | Sale | 62,250 @ $32.36 | $2.0M | −56.3% of holding | −2.9% | −0.5% | 48,384 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Francis Richard D | officer | Sale | 30,903 @ $32.36 | $1.0M | −4.6% of holding | −2.9% | −0.5% | 642,099 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Hughes Eric A | director | Sale | 12,077 @ $32.36 | $391K | −48.5% of holding | −2.9% | −0.5% | 12,823 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Savage Brian | officer | Sale | 1,274 @ $32.36 | $41K | −30.3% of holding | −2.9% | −0.5% | 2,926 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Kalif Eliyahu Sharon | officer | Sale | 345,810 @ $33.64 | $11.6M | −85.7% of holding | −7.1% | −1.1% | 57,478 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-15 | Francis Richard D | officer | Sale | 286,122 @ $34.22 | $9.8M | −32.1% of holding | −9.8% | −6.6% | 605,771 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-15 | Francis Richard D | officer | Sale | 161,656 @ $34.22 | $5.5M | −37.3% of holding | −9.8% | −6.6% | 271,783 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | MIGNONE ROBERTO | director | Sale | 77,400 @ $30.24 | $2.3M | −17.4% of holding | +3.3% | −6.3% | 367,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Weiss Amir | officer | Sale | 12,300 @ $30.20 | $372K | −68.5% of holding | +3.3% | −6.3% | 5,650 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Sabag Mark | officer | Sale | 118,724 @ $28.75 | $3.4M | −44.0% of holding | +10.2% | +12.4% | 150,996 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Daniell Richard | officer | Sale | 115,468 @ $28.68 | $3.3M | −70.5% of holding | +10.2% | +12.4% | 48,384 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Sabag Mark | officer | Sale | 98,168 @ $28.70 | $2.8M | −65.0% of holding | +10.2% | +12.4% | 52,828 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | MIGNONE ROBERTO | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $26.03 | $1.3M | −10.1% of holding | +18.4% | +19.4% | 445,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Fox Christine | officer | Sale | 28,229 @ $24.78 | $700K | −30.7% of holding | +23.2% | +26.9% | 63,647 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Fox Christine | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $25.11 | $753K | −51.4% of holding | +17.4% | +24.3% | 28,384 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | MIGNONE ROBERTO | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $24.11 | $4.8M | −28.8% of holding | +13.8% | +35.6% | 495,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Weiss Amir | officer | Sale | 12,300 @ $24.44 | $301K | −40.7% of holding | +13.8% | +35.6% | 17,950 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | McAvoy David R. | officer | Purchase | 1,113 @ $18.86 | $21K | +9.3% of holding | +1.3% | +60.8% | 13,027 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Hughes Eric A | director | Sale | 52,742 @ $15.16 | $799K | −100.0% of holding | +18.9% | +118.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Jover Placid | officer | Sale | 6,053 @ $15.16 | $92K | −47.2% of holding | +18.9% | +118.5% | 6,774 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Kalif Eliyahu Sharon | officer | Sale | 55,775 @ $17.08 | $952K | −12.1% of holding | −12.8% | +55.6% | 403,288 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
242 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Weiss Amir | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 15,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Weiss Amir | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 7,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Jover Placid | officer | Option exercise | 12,827 | 25,657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Hughes Eric A | director | Option exercise | 52,744 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Hughes Eric A | director | Option exercise | 52,744 | 160,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Jover Placid | officer | Option exercise | 12,827 | 19,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Jover Placid | officer | Option exercise | 12,827 | 19,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Hughes Eric A | director | Option exercise | 52,744 | 160,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Satchi-Fainaro Ronit | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | BARER SOL J | director | Option exercise | 21,739 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Crane Rosemary A | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Elstein Amir | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Francis Richard D | officer | Option exercise | 13,043 | 39,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | LIEBERMAN GERALD M | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Lichtenstein Chen | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | MIGNONE ROBERTO | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Nisen Perry | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Zaks Tal Zvi | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Nisen Perry | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 119,807 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Satchi-Fainaro Ronit | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 112,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Lichtenstein Chen | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 19,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Francis Richard D | officer | Option exercise | 13,043 | 1,183,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | MIGNONE ROBERTO | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 119,807 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Zaks Tal Zvi | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 73,264 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | BARER SOL J | director | Option exercise | 21,739 | 448,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Satchi-Fainaro Ronit | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 112,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Nisen Perry | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 119,807 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | LIEBERMAN GERALD M | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 130,149 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Elstein Amir | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 2,118,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Crane Rosemary A | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 127,739 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Lichtenstein Chen | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 19,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | BARER SOL J | director | Option exercise | 21,739 | 448,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Zaks Tal Zvi | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 73,264 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | LIEBERMAN GERALD M | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 130,149 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Crane Rosemary A | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 127,739 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Francis Richard D | officer | Option exercise | 13,043 | 1,183,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | MIGNONE ROBERTO | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 119,807 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Elstein Amir | director | Option exercise | 14,492 | 2,118,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Shields Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 16,195 | 32,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Shields Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 16,195 | 26,184 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.