Issued 2026-09-25 at $398.38 · now $398.38 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, TER has typically landed between $324.41 and $504.25 — a range of −18.6% to +26.6% from the issuance price $398.38.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($398.38) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TER has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $398.38 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $398.38 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $410.26 (+3.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $372.27–$448.24
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $324.41–$504.25
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-22 | −45.7% | −45.7% | +2.2% |
| 2008-10-21 | −44.7% | −44.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −43.7% | −43.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-01-26 | +48.0% | +0.0% | +48.0% |
| 2009-03-06 | +45.7% | −1.6% | +46.9% |
| 2008-12-04 | +45.6% | −0.6% | +45.6% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$47.03
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$184.71
- Analyst target · range $270.00–$550.00$388.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$398.38
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | MATZ MARILYN | director | Sale | 400 @ $351.11 | $140K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,841 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $337.83 | $1.4M | −3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 108,495 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | MATZ MARILYN | director | Sale | 800 @ $337.83 | $270K | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,241 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 167 @ $341.30 | $57K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,364 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $425.00 | $1.7M | −3.4% of holding | −20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,495 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MATZ MARILYN | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $425.00 | $510K | −7.4% of holding | −20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,041 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 166 @ $358.15 | $59K | −2.5% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,531 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $356.31 | $1.4M | −3.3% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,495 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | MATZ MARILYN | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $356.31 | $428K | −6.9% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,241 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 167 @ $460.00 | $77K | −2.4% of holding | −14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,697 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $423.03 | $1.7M | −3.2% of holding | −25.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | MATZ MARILYN | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $423.03 | $508K | −6.4% of holding | −25.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,441 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 167 @ $369.74 | $62K | −2.4% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,864 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Poulin Shannon John | officer | Sale | 656 @ $355.00 | $233K | −4.0% of holding | +20.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,722 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Poulin Shannon John | officer | Sale | 1,008 @ $345.37 | $348K | −6.3% of holding | +19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,066 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | MATZ MARILYN | director | Sale | 400 @ $350.00 | $140K | −2.1% of holding | +19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,641 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Sale | 8,597 @ $338.98 | $2.9M | −6.5% of holding | +19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,470 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | MATZ MARILYN | director | Sale | 800 @ $338.98 | $271K | −4.0% of holding | +19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,041 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Driscoll Ryan | officer | Sale | 680 @ $377.60 | $257K | −8.1% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,665 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Mills Regan | officer | Sale | 16 @ $342.17 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | −9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,399 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 625 @ $312.20 | $195K | −8.9% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,363 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Mills Regan | officer | Sale | 252 @ $290.88 | $73K | −2.2% of holding | −0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,415 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 625 @ $299.20 | $187K | −8.2% of holding | +6.2% | −3.3% | 6,988 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Mills Regan | officer | Sale | 788 @ $332.87 | $262K | −6.2% of holding | −6.6% | −5.2% | 11,889 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 625 @ $266.98 | $167K | −7.6% of holding | +9.3% | +25.3% | 7,613 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 625 @ $211.85 | $132K | −7.1% of holding | +22.8% | +51.3% | 8,238 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Sale | 1,108 @ $201.31 | $223K | −1.2% of holding | +17.5% | +101.2% | 93,409 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 625 @ $200.00 | $125K | −6.6% of holding | +9.9% | +75.9% | 8,863 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Sale | 1,108 @ $180.20 | $200K | −1.2% of holding | +8.2% | +79.9% | 94,517 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 625 @ $177.05 | $111K | −6.2% of holding | +5.9% | +82.5% | 9,488 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-10 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Sale | 1,108 @ $145.24 | $161K | −1.2% of holding | +35.0% | +170.1% | 94,777 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 625 @ $147.90 | $92K | −5.8% of holding | +18.2% | +141.4% | 10,113 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Sale | 554 @ $126.39 | $70K | −0.6% of holding | +5.4% | +138.6% | 95,885 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Sale | 554 @ $115.00 | $64K | −0.6% of holding | +22.8% | +163.7% | 96,439 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 625 @ $120.06 | $75K | −5.5% of holding | +19.0% | +141.5% | 10,738 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Sale | 554 @ $106.00 | $59K | −0.6% of holding | +1.3% | +180.2% | 96,993 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 625 @ $106.00 | $66K | −5.2% of holding | +8.3% | +142.2% | 11,363 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 1,875 @ $105.73 | $198K | −13.5% of holding | +7.2% | +124.4% | 11,988 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Sale | 554 @ $105.73 | $59K | −0.6% of holding | +7.2% | +124.4% | 97,547 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 625 @ $110.96 | $69K | −4.7% of holding | −18.3% | +3.9% | 12,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Mehta Sanjay | officer | Sale | 1,384 @ $111.49 | $154K | −3.6% of holding | −0.7% | −11.6% | 36,576 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Burns Richard John | director | Sale | 445 @ $111.49 | $50K | −1.7% of holding | −0.7% | −11.6% | 25,191 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Driscoll Ryan | officer | Sale | 216 @ $111.49 | $24K | −3.0% of holding | −0.7% | −11.6% | 7,007 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 625 @ $112.58 | $70K | −4.5% of holding | +1.8% | −9.2% | 13,393 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Mehta Sanjay | officer | Sale | 614 @ $102.00 | $63K | −2.0% of holding | −4.5% | −12.6% | 30,446 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Driscoll Ryan | officer | Sale | 437 @ $102.00 | $45K | −9.2% of holding | −4.5% | −12.6% | 4,312 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-29 | Mehta Sanjay | officer | Sale | 5,338 @ $122.90 | $656K | −14.7% of holding | −8.6% | −17.4% | 31,060 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-29 | Burns Richard John | director | Sale | 1,477 @ $122.90 | $182K | −6.5% of holding | −8.6% | −17.4% | 21,213 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-29 | Driscoll Ryan | officer | Sale | 76 @ $122.90 | $9K | −1.6% of holding | −8.6% | −17.4% | 4,749 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-28 | Mehta Sanjay | officer | Sale | 1,789 @ $120.51 | $216K | −5.1% of holding | −7.5% | −17.1% | 33,308 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-28 | Burns Richard John | director | Sale | 407 @ $120.51 | $49K | −1.9% of holding | −7.5% | −17.1% | 20,764 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-28 | Driscoll Ryan | officer | Sale | 107 @ $120.51 | $13K | −2.1% of holding | −7.5% | −17.1% | 4,984 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-03 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Sale | 3,080 @ $130.00 | $400K | −4.0% of holding | −15.9% | −34.8% | 74,660 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 625 @ $126.76 | $79K | −4.3% of holding | −14.7% | −33.7% | 14,018 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Sale | 3,080 @ $130.00 | $400K | −3.8% of holding | +8.1% | −32.0% | 77,656 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-02 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 625 @ $110.04 | $69K | −4.1% of holding | +14.6% | −26.5% | 14,643 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-07 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Sale | 625 @ $111.42 | $70K | −3.9% of holding | +5.7% | −22.9% | 15,268 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-02 | Burns Richard John | director | Sale | 191 @ $129.68 | $25K | −0.9% of holding | −19.2% | −37.0% | 21,315 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-10-01 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Sale | 3,080 @ $132.80 | $409K | −3.7% of holding | −17.1% | −36.6% | 80,736 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-01 | Burns Richard John | director | Sale | 789 @ $132.80 | $105K | −3.5% of holding | −17.1% | −36.6% | 21,864 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
162 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Henry Andrew Chisholm | director | Award / grant | 52 | 2,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | TUFANO PAUL J | director | Award / grant | 116 | 65,848 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Herweck Peter | director | Award / grant | 63 | 16,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | MADDOCK ERNEST E | director | Other acquisition | 2 | 10,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | TUFANO PAUL J | director | Other acquisition | 19 | 65,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Herweck Peter | director | Other acquisition | 4 | 16,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Hathout Jean Pierre | officer | Withheld for tax | 174 | 9,733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Hathout Jean Pierre | officer | Withheld for tax | 267 | 9,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Poulin Shannon John | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,531 | 16,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Poulin Shannon John | officer | Option exercise | 2,843 | 17,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Poulin Shannon John | officer | Option exercise | 2,843 | 8,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Option exercise | 4,597 | 133,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Option exercise | 4,597 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | TUFANO PAUL J | director | Award / grant | 668 | 65,713 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | van Kralingen Bridget A | director | Award / grant | 668 | 6,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | MATZ MARILYN | director | Award / grant | 668 | 19,841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | MADDOCK ERNEST E | director | Award / grant | 668 | 10,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | JOHNSON MERCEDES | director | Award / grant | 668 | 7,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Sayiner Necip | director | Award / grant | 668 | 2,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Herweck Peter | director | Award / grant | 668 | 16,134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Henry Andrew Chisholm | director | Award / grant | 668 | 2,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Poulin Shannon John | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,162 | 16,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Mills Regan | officer | Withheld for tax | 222 | 11,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Herweck Peter | director | Award / grant | 92 | 15,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Henry Andrew Chisholm | director | Award / grant | 75 | 2,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | TUFANO PAUL J | director | Award / grant | 159 | 65,045 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Herweck Peter | director | Other acquisition | 5 | 15,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | MADDOCK ERNEST E | director | Other acquisition | 2 | 9,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | TUFANO PAUL J | director | Other acquisition | 25 | 64,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Hathout Jean Pierre | officer | Award / grant | 886 | 886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Award / grant | 13,380 | 128,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Award / grant | 11,810 | 11,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Hathout Jean Pierre | officer | Award / grant | 1,004 | 10,174 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Mills Regan | officer | Award / grant | 1,004 | 12,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Mills Regan | officer | Award / grant | 886 | 886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Driscoll Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 1,784 | 8,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Driscoll Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 1,575 | 1,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Poulin Shannon John | officer | Award / grant | 4,460 | 17,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Poulin Shannon John | officer | Award / grant | 3,937 | 3,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Smith Gregory Stephen | director | Withheld for tax | 6,763 | 115,090 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-05-04 | 2026-04-29 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-19 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-04-14 | 2025-03-03 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | purchase | 2025-03-12 | 2025-02-12 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.