TENB · TickerCove

TENBTenable Holdings, Inc.Technology · Software - Infrastructureas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $36.37 · now $36.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TENB has typically landed between $29.71 and $42.88 — a range of −18.3% to +17.9% from the issuance price $36.37.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,025 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-07-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($36.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$36.37 · 76% of range

$16.04 low$42.65 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.8%

typical move · IQR 13.3%

−18.3%worst (p90)+17.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where TENB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $36.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $36.37 (+0.0%)
typical $36.08 (-0.8%)
middle 50% $33.66–$38.5
90% range $29.71–$42.88

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,025 windows spanning 2018-07-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−39.8%	−39.8%	+1.8%
2020-02-13	−37.7%	−37.7%	+2.4%
2020-02-19	−35.9%	−40.8%	+0.2%
3 best
2020-11-24	+58.8%	+0.0%	+61.2%
2026-06-11	+58.7%	−2.0%	+58.7%
2020-11-23	+58.2%	−0.9%	+59.7%

2,025 overlapping windows · 2018-07-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

63%

+4.7%

n=8

Feb

50%

−2.4%

n=8

Mar

50%

−3.3%

n=8

Apr

50%

+1.4%

n=8

May

63%

+5.7%

n=8

Jun

63%

+4.0%

n=8

Jul

50%

−1.4%

n=8

Aug

56%

+2.0%

n=9

Sep

33%

−0.7%

n=9

Oct

38%

−0.0%

n=8

Nov

38%

−0.5%

n=8

Dec

38%

+2.1%

n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-19	Zecher Linda Kay	director	Sale	690 @ $35.76	$25K	−9.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	7,012	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18	Zecher Linda Kay	director	Sale	700 @ $35.46	$25K	−8.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	7,702	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-07	Vicks Raymond Jr.	director	Sale	1,819 @ $35.94	$65K	−8.1% of holding	−6.4%	not yet — horizon still open	20,509	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07	Zecher Linda Kay	director	Sale	550 @ $36.50	$20K	−6.1% of holding	−6.4%	not yet — horizon still open	8,402	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-04	Zecher Linda Kay	director	Sale	600 @ $36.00	$22K	−6.3% of holding	−3.9%	not yet — horizon still open	8,952	Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2026-08-03	Zecher Linda Kay	director	Sale	1,470 @ $34.00	$50K	−13.3% of holding	+0.9%	not yet — horizon still open	9,552	Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade
2026-05-04	Brown Matthew Charles	officer	Purchase	12,000 @ $21.54	$258K	+64.7% of holding	+37.5%	not yet — horizon still open	30,541	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12	Vicks Raymond Jr.	director	Purchase	4,500 @ $22.17	$100K	+38.2% of holding	−7.3%	+58.7%	16,266	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-09	COVIELLO ARTHUR W JR	director	Purchase	12,000 @ $21.50	$258K	+30.2% of holding	−3.7%	+61.4%	51,731	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-15	SEAWELL A BROOKE	director	Sale	115,000 @ $24.82	$2.9M	−100.0% of holding	−10.6%	−0.9%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-17	Anschutz Barron	other	Sale	976 @ $29.10	$28K	−1.6% of holding	−10.4%	−37.3%	61,420	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-09	SEAWELL A BROOKE	director	Sale	15,000 @ $30.80	$462K	−100.0% of holding	−6.7%	−38.0%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-04	SEAWELL A BROOKE	director	Sale	4,622 @ $30.12	$139K	−23.6% of holding	−6.0%	−34.9%	15,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-26	Vintz Stephen A	director	Sale	3,464 @ $29.84	$103K	−0.9% of holding	−2.2%	−41.9%	362,679	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-26	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Sale	2,541 @ $29.84	$76K	−2.4% of holding	−2.2%	−41.9%	105,001	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-26	Anschutz Barron	other	Sale	670 @ $29.84	$20K	−1.1% of holding	−2.2%	−41.9%	60,365	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-25	Vintz Stephen A	director	Sale	29,196 @ $30.25	$883K	−7.5% of holding	−3.5%	−45.2%	358,949	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-25	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Sale	28,500 @ $30.25	$862K	−21.8% of holding	−3.5%	−45.2%	102,322	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-25	Anschutz Barron	other	Sale	1,261 @ $30.25	$38K	−2.1% of holding	−3.5%	−45.2%	59,645	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

281 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-24	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Withheld for tax	3,754	193,033	Form 4
2026-08-24	Vintz Stephen A	director	Withheld for tax	3,716	622,460	Form 4
2026-08-24	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Withheld for tax	2,947	187,106	Form 4
2026-08-24	Vintz Stephen A	director	Withheld for tax	2,917	615,755	Form 4
2026-08-24	Vintz Stephen A	director	Withheld for tax	2,438	618,412	Form 4
2026-08-24	Vintz Stephen A	director	Withheld for tax	2,163	624,816	Form 4
2026-08-24	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Withheld for tax	2,112	195,289	Form 4
2026-08-24	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Withheld for tax	1,796	189,023	Form 4
2026-08-24	Vintz Stephen A	director	Withheld for tax	1,123	612,577	Form 4
2026-08-24	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Withheld for tax	1,097	183,958	Form 4
2026-08-24	Anschutz Barron	other	Withheld for tax	780	76,077	Form 4
2026-08-24	Vintz Stephen A	director	Withheld for tax	764	611,355	Form 4
2026-08-24	Anschutz Barron	other	Withheld for tax	640	74,572	Form 4
2026-08-24	Anschutz Barron	other	Withheld for tax	602	75,228	Form 4
2026-08-24	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Withheld for tax	562	182,788	Form 4
2026-08-24	Anschutz Barron	other	Option exercise	1,629	16,290	Form 4
2026-08-24	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Option exercise	4,368	26,208	Form 4
2026-08-24	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Option exercise	7,764	77,644	Form 4
2026-08-24	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Option exercise	3,713	7,426	Form 4
2026-08-24	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Option exercise	6,095	60,957	Form 4
2026-08-24	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Option exercise	2,267	13,606	Form 4
2026-08-24	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Option exercise	1,162	2,330	Form 4
2026-08-24	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Option exercise	4,368	197,401	Form 4
2026-08-24	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Option exercise	7,764	196,787	Form 4
2026-08-24	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Option exercise	3,713	190,819	Form 4
2026-08-24	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Option exercise	6,095	190,053	Form 4
2026-08-24	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Option exercise	2,267	185,055	Form 4
2026-08-24	Thurmond Mark C.	director	Option exercise	1,162	183,350	Form 4
2026-08-24	Vintz Stephen A	director	Option exercise	4,519	27,114	Form 4
2026-08-24	Vintz Stephen A	director	Option exercise	7,764	77,644	Form 4
2026-08-24	Vintz Stephen A	director	Option exercise	5,095	10,191	Form 4
2026-08-24	Vintz Stephen A	director	Option exercise	6,095	60,957	Form 4
2026-08-24	Vintz Stephen A	director	Option exercise	2,345	14,077	Form 4
2026-08-24	Vintz Stephen A	director	Option exercise	1,595	3,195	Form 4
2026-08-24	Vintz Stephen A	director	Option exercise	4,519	626,979	Form 4
2026-08-24	Vintz Stephen A	director	Option exercise	7,764	626,176	Form 4
2026-08-24	Vintz Stephen A	director	Option exercise	5,095	620,850	Form 4
2026-08-24	Vintz Stephen A	director	Option exercise	6,095	618,672	Form 4
2026-08-24	Vintz Stephen A	director	Option exercise	2,345	613,700	Form 4
2026-08-24	Vintz Stephen A	director	Option exercise	1,595	612,119	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i