Issued 2026-09-16 at $69.97 · now $69.97 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TEM has typically landed between $50.19 and $116.10 — a range of −28.3% to +65.9% from the issuance price $69.97.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
544 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-06-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($69.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TEM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $69.97 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $69.97 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $70.92 (+1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $59.96–$81.88
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $50.19–$116.1
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 544 windows spanning 2024-06-14 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-14 | −48.9% | −52.9% | +0.0% |
| 2024-11-27 | −46.2% | −47.6% | +0.0% |
| 2024-11-29 | −46.1% | −47.2% | +0.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-01-14 | +163.1% | +0.0% | +163.1% |
| 2025-01-15 | +156.1% | −0.5% | +156.1% |
| 2025-01-17 | +143.8% | +0.0% | +154.5% |
544 overlapping windows · 2024-06-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+35.6%
n=2
Feb
0%
−6.5%
n=2
Mar
0%
−14.6%
n=2
Apr
100%
+14.9%
n=2
May
50%
−1.1%
n=2
Jun
100%
+15.0%
n=2
Jul
33%
−3.9%
n=3
Aug
100%
+38.3%
n=3
Sep
67%
+4.2%
n=3
Oct
50%
−4.9%
n=2
Nov
50%
+13.5%
n=2
Dec
0%
−35.1%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Fukushima Ryan | officer | Sale | 13,046 @ $62.12 | $810K | −27.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 34,374 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Fukushima Ryan | officer | Sale | 10,900 @ $62.64 | $683K | −31.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,474 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Fukushima Ryan | officer | Sale | 5,900 @ $63.80 | $376K | −25.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,574 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Fukushima Ryan | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $64.63 | $65K | −5.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,574 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Doudna Jennifer A | director | Sale | 676 @ $65.55 | $44K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,266 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Epstein David R | director | Sale | 250 @ $65.55 | $16K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,844 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | West Nadja | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $69.00 | $207K | −8.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,981 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 52,784 @ $68.97 | $3.6M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,152,445 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 30,139 @ $69.83 | $2.1M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,122,306 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 24,161 @ $68.13 | $1.6M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,205,229 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 22,495 @ $68.97 | $1.6M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,673,916 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 19,605 @ $68.97 | $1.4M | −10.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 161,848 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 12,851 @ $69.83 | $897K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,661,065 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 11,167 @ $69.83 | $780K | −6.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 150,681 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 10,282 @ $68.13 | $701K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,696,411 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 9,935 @ $67.01 | $666K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,229,390 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 9,262 @ $65.98 | $611K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,239,325 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 8,926 @ $68.13 | $608K | −4.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 181,453 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 5,093 @ $64.70 | $330K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,248,587 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 4,218 @ $67.01 | $283K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,706,693 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 3,944 @ $65.98 | $260K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,710,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 3,649 @ $67.01 | $245K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 190,379 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 3,429 @ $65.98 | $226K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 194,028 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 2,887 @ $68.96 | $199K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 818,901 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 2,168 @ $64.70 | $140K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,714,855 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 1,837 @ $70.58 | $130K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,120,469 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 1,883 @ $64.70 | $122K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 197,457 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 1,668 @ $69.83 | $116K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 817,233 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 1,789 @ $64.03 | $115K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,253,680 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 1,365 @ $68.13 | $93K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 821,788 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 782 @ $70.58 | $55K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,660,283 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 760 @ $64.03 | $49K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,717,023 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 681 @ $70.58 | $48K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 150,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 660 @ $64.03 | $42K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 199,340 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 578 @ $67.01 | $39K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 823,153 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 515 @ $65.98 | $34K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 823,731 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 284 @ $64.70 | $18K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 824,246 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 102 @ $70.58 | $7K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 817,131 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 101 @ $64.03 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 824,530 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Fukushima Ryan | officer | Sale | 14,286 @ $70.00 | $1.0M | −23.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,420 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Schoenherr Thomas Edward | officer | Sale | 2,694 @ $70.00 | $189K | +3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 87,021 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Rogers James William | officer | Sale | 26,313 @ $60.00 | $1.6M | −19.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 106,024 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Polovin Andrew | officer | Sale | 7,927 @ $56.00 | $444K | −5.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 138,140 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Schoenherr Thomas Edward | officer | Sale | 2,994 @ $59.97 | $180K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 91,109 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Schoenherr Thomas Edward | officer | Sale | 3,094 @ $55.97 | $173K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 94,703 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Schoenherr Thomas Edward | officer | Sale | 900 @ $60.45 | $54K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 90,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Schoenherr Thomas Edward | officer | Sale | 494 @ $61.23 | $30K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 89,715 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Schoenherr Thomas Edward | officer | Sale | 500 @ $57.94 | $29K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 94,103 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Schoenherr Thomas Edward | officer | Sale | 100 @ $56.47 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 94,603 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Sale | 132,591 @ $49.61 | $6.6M | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,098,130 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Fukushima Ryan | officer | Sale | 41,095 @ $49.61 | $2.0M | −6.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 562,463 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Rogers James William | officer | Sale | 22,529 @ $49.61 | $1.1M | −14.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 132,337 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Polovin Andrew | officer | Sale | 22,148 @ $49.61 | $1.1M | −13.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 146,067 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Schoenherr Thomas Edward | officer | Sale | 9,232 @ $49.61 | $458K | −8.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 97,797 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Bartolucci Ryan M | officer | Sale | 6,175 @ $49.61 | $306K | −8.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 67,866 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | West Nadja | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $53.90 | $162K | −7.9% of holding | +34.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,981 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Fukushima Ryan | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $50.04 | $1.0M | −13.9% of holding | +24.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 123,945 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Fukushima Ryan | officer | Sale | 15,856 @ $46.57 | $738K | −9.8% of holding | +34.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 146,507 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Fukushima Ryan | officer | Sale | 3,100 @ $45.33 | $141K | −1.9% of holding | +34.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 162,363 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Fukushima Ryan | officer | Sale | 2,562 @ $46.94 | $120K | −1.7% of holding | +34.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 143,945 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
26 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Fukushima Ryan | officer | Gift | 62,239 | 61,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Polovin Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 168,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Rogers James William | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 154,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Gottlieb Scott | director | Award / grant | 5,913 | 40,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Frederick Wayne A.I. | director | Award / grant | 5,913 | 30,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | West Nadja | director | Award / grant | 5,913 | 37,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Epstein David R | director | Award / grant | 5,913 | 31,714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Doudna Jennifer A | director | Award / grant | 5,913 | 28,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Belcher Eric D | director | Award / grant | 5,913 | 21,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | BARRIS PETER J | director | Award / grant | 5,913 | 121,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Leonsis Theodore | director | Award / grant | 5,913 | 21,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Fukushima Ryan | officer | Gift | 162,239 | 617,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Fukushima Ryan | officer | Gift | 62,239 | 211,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Schoenherr Thomas Edward | officer | Award / grant | 13,642 | 108,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Polovin Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 10,000 | 136,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Fukushima Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 10,000 | 779,347 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Rogers James William | officer | Award / grant | 10,000 | 137,248 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Bartolucci Ryan M | officer | Award / grant | 24,000 | 78,157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Fukushima Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 74,993 | 769,347 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | LEFKOFSKY ERIC P | director | Award / grant | 263,430 | 2,253,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Bartolucci Ryan M | officer | Award / grant | 12,998 | 54,157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Rogers James William | officer | Award / grant | 37,496 | 138,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Polovin Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 38,420 | 137,867 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Fukushima Ryan | officer | Gift | 125,135 | 703,946 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Fukushima Ryan | officer | Gift | 33,808 | 158,808 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Fukushima Ryan | officer | Gift | 131,893 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.