TECX · TickerCove

TECXTectonic Therapeutic, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $27.91 · now $27.91 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TECX has typically landed between $18.70 and $38.28 — a range of −33.0% to +37.2% from the issuance price $27.91.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,046 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-06-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($27.91) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$27.91 · 57% of range

$14.71 low$37.93 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.1%

typical move · IQR 24.3%

−33.0%worst (p90)+37.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where TECX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $27.91 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $27.91 (+0.0%)
typical $27.94 (+0.1%)
middle 50% $24.55–$31.34
90% range $18.7–$38.28

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,046 windows spanning 2018-06-21 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-01-31	−57.3%	−57.3%	+0.0%
2020-02-13	−56.2%	−56.2%	+5.0%
2022-01-03	−54.5%	−56.9%	+0.0%
3 best
2023-01-09	+114.1%	+0.0%	+114.1%
2019-03-07	+102.4%	+0.0%	+102.4%
2019-03-08	+101.4%	+0.0%	+101.4%

2,046 overlapping windows · 2018-06-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−3.8%

n=8

Feb

50%

−0.5%

n=8

Mar

38%

−1.2%

n=8

Apr

13%

−8.6%

n=8

May

75%

+8.0%

n=8

Jun

25%

−2.9%

n=8

Jul

56%

+9.6%

n=9

Aug

67%

+2.6%

n=9

Sep

33%

−4.0%

n=9

Oct

88%

+4.1%

n=8

Nov

50%

+2.5%

n=8

Dec

50%

−5.0%

n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-25	McNamara Peter	officer	Sale	43 @ $36.52	$2K	−0.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	55,285	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12	McNamara Peter	officer	Sale	43 @ $35.00	$2K	−0.1% of holding	−20.1%	not yet — horizon still open	55,285	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-30	McNamara Peter	officer	Sale	172 @ $35.00	$6K	−0.3% of holding	−16.4%	not yet — horizon still open	55,285	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04	Ruddy Marcella K.	director	Sale	1,065 @ $30.00	$32K	−1.5% of holding	−9.2%	not yet — horizon still open	67,682	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01	Ruddy Marcella K.	director	Sale	1,000 @ $31.05	$31K	−1.4% of holding	−15.6%	not yet — horizon still open	68,747	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-06	Ruddy Marcella K.	director	Sale	10,000 @ $30.00	$300K	−12.5% of holding	−17.3%	−29.4%	69,747	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-06	McNamara Peter	officer	Sale	6,047 @ $30.00	$181K	−9.8% of holding	−17.3%	−29.4%	55,500	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-06	McNamara Peter	officer	Sale	215 @ $35.00	$8K	−0.4% of holding	−17.3%	−29.4%	55,285	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-04	McNamara Peter	officer	Sale	1,650 @ $25.00	$41K	−2.7% of holding	+15.4%	−1.4%	58,832	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-03	McNamara Peter	officer	Sale	1,649 @ $22.06	$36K	−4.2% of holding	+29.6%	+15.4%	37,482	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-11	REICIN ALISE	director	Purchase	2,500 @ $21.10	$53K	+1.1% of holding	+55.6%	+41.4%	237,547	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-10	Lochner Daniel	officer	Purchase	6,000 @ $21.61	$130K	+23.0% of holding	+65.9%	+62.8%	32,044	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-11	SPRINGER TIMOTHY A	director	Purchase	53,706 @ $16.31	$876K	+3.7% of holding	+15.0%	−25.3%	1,503,358	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-11	SPRINGER TIMOTHY A	director	Purchase	9,478 @ $16.31	$155K	+0.2% of holding	+15.0%	−25.3%	4,334,846	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-10	SPRINGER TIMOTHY A	director	Purchase	45,858 @ $16.73	$767K	+3.3% of holding	+13.0%	−29.2%	1,449,652	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-10	SPRINGER TIMOTHY A	director	Purchase	8,092 @ $16.73	$135K	+0.2% of holding	+13.0%	−29.2%	4,325,368	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-09	SPRINGER TIMOTHY A	director	Purchase	16,215 @ $14.62	$237K	+1.2% of holding	+14.5%	−21.6%	1,398,938	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-09	SPRINGER TIMOTHY A	director	Purchase	4,856 @ $15.23	$74K	+0.3% of holding	+14.5%	−21.6%	1,403,794	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-09	SPRINGER TIMOTHY A	director	Purchase	2,861 @ $14.62	$42K	+0.1% of holding	+14.5%	−21.6%	4,316,419	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-09	SPRINGER TIMOTHY A	director	Purchase	857 @ $15.23	$13K	+0.0% of holding	+14.5%	−21.6%	4,317,276	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-07	MCGUIRE TERRANCE	director	Sale	500,000 @ $17.10	$8.6M	−46.6% of holding	+10.9%	−37.4%	573,062	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-07	SPRINGER TIMOTHY A	director	Purchase	412,500 @ $17.10	$7.1M	+42.5% of holding	+10.9%	−37.4%	1,382,723	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-07	SPRINGER TIMOTHY A	director	Purchase	87,500 @ $17.10	$1.5M	+2.1% of holding	+10.9%	−37.4%	4,313,558	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-05	SPRINGER TIMOTHY A	director	Purchase	660,000 @ $50.00	$33.0M	+212.8% of holding	−45.8%	−58.4%	970,223	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-05	SPRINGER TIMOTHY A	director	Purchase	129,294 @ $54.14	$7.0M	+3.2% of holding	−45.8%	−58.4%	4,226,058	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-05	Lochner Daniel	officer	Purchase	4,617 @ $54.14	$250K	ownership Δ n/a	−45.8%	−58.4%	4,617	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

85 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-03	REICIN ALISE	director	Award / grant	69,250	69,250	Form 4
2026-09-03	McNamara Peter	officer	Award / grant	21,000	21,000	Form 4
2026-09-03	Ruddy Marcella K.	director	Award / grant	24,250	24,250	Form 4
2026-09-03	Schwabish Marc	officer	Award / grant	17,750	17,750	Form 4
2026-09-03	Lochner Daniel	officer	Award / grant	24,250	24,250	Form 4
2026-08-25	McNamara Peter	officer	Option exercise	43	55,328	Form 4
2026-08-25	McNamara Peter	officer	Option exercise	43	7,787	Form 4
2026-08-12	McNamara Peter	officer	Option exercise	43	55,328	Form 4
2026-08-12	McNamara Peter	officer	Option exercise	43	7,830	Form 4
2026-06-30	McNamara Peter	officer	Option exercise	172	55,457	Form 4
2026-06-30	McNamara Peter	officer	Option exercise	172	7,873	Form 4
2026-06-20	REICIN ALISE	director	Withheld for tax	924	310,623	Form 4
2026-06-11	Lochner Daniel	officer	Award / grant	7,500	7,500	Form 4
2026-06-09	Vitorovic Stefan	director	Award / grant	10,200	10,200	Form 4
2026-06-09	Donenberg Phillip B.	director	Award / grant	10,200	10,200	Form 4
2026-06-09	SPRINGER TIMOTHY A	director	Award / grant	10,200	10,200	Form 4
2026-06-09	Tipirneni Praveen P.	director	Award / grant	10,200	10,200	Form 4
2026-06-08	Chutter Jessica Caroline	director	Award / grant	20,400	20,400	Form 4
2026-04-01	Nader Francois	director	Award / grant	20,400	20,400	Form 4
2026-03-06	McNamara Peter	officer	Option exercise	2,500	61,332	Form 4
2026-03-06	McNamara Peter	officer	Option exercise	215	61,547	Form 4
2026-03-06	McNamara Peter	officer	Option exercise	215	8,045	Form 4
2026-03-06	McNamara Peter	officer	Option exercise	2,500	31,959	Form 4
2026-03-06	McNamara Peter	officer	Option exercise	2,500	31,959	Form 4
2026-03-04	Ruddy Marcella K.	director	Award / grant	24,250	24,250	Form 4
2026-03-04	McNamara Peter	officer	Award / grant	23,000	60,482	Form 4
2026-03-04	Ruddy Marcella K.	director	Award / grant	26,500	79,747	Form 4
2026-03-04	Schwabish Marc	officer	Award / grant	17,750	17,750	Form 4
2026-03-04	Schwabish Marc	officer	Award / grant	19,500	45,314	Form 4
2026-03-04	Lochner Daniel	officer	Award / grant	24,250	24,250	Form 4
2026-03-04	Lochner Daniel	officer	Award / grant	26,500	58,544	Form 4
2026-03-04	REICIN ALISE	director	Award / grant	69,250	69,250	Form 4
2026-03-04	REICIN ALISE	director	Award / grant	76,500	311,547	Form 4
2026-03-04	McNamara Peter	officer	Award / grant	21,000	21,000	Form 4
2026-02-10	Schwabish Marc	officer	Option exercise	4,500	25,814	Form 4
2026-02-10	Schwabish Marc	officer	Option exercise	4,500	82,014	Form 4
2026-02-10	Schwabish Marc	officer	Option exercise	4,500	82,014	Form 4
2026-02-04	REICIN ALISE	director	Withheld for tax	4,104	235,047	Form 4
2026-02-04	Lochner Daniel	officer	Withheld for tax	2,077	26,044	Form 4
2026-02-04	Ruddy Marcella K.	director	Withheld for tax	2,064	53,247	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i