Issued 2026-09-16 at $72.33 · now $72.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TECH has typically landed between $60.79 and $84.58 — a range of −16.0% to +16.9% from the issuance price $72.33.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($72.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TECH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $72.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $72.33 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $71.55 (-1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $66.85–$76.25
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $60.79–$84.58
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-12-28 | −28.9% | −28.9% | +3.9% |
| 2021-12-27 | −27.3% | −27.3% | +3.3% |
| 2021-12-29 | −27.0% | −29.6% | +3.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-27 | +47.6% | +0.0% | +47.6% |
| 2026-05-26 | +47.4% | +0.0% | +47.4% |
| 2020-04-09 | +45.2% | −0.9% | +45.2% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$23.00
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$18.93
- Analyst target · range $50.00–$79.00$73.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$72.33
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Herr Amy E. | director | Sale | 6,636 @ $48.28 | $320K | −97.1% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 200 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Herr Amy E. | director | Sale | 1,976 @ $59.10 | $117K | −90.8% of holding | −10.0% | +10.6% | 200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Nusse Roeland | director | Sale | 17,040 @ $56.36 | $960K | −27.7% of holding | −12.9% | −6.2% | 44,559 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | BAUMGARTNER ROBERT V | director | Sale | 17,040 @ $56.21 | $958K | −27.5% of holding | −12.9% | −6.2% | 44,863 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Herr Amy E. | director | Sale | 1,280 @ $49.77 | $64K | −39.3% of holding | +4.4% | +6.6% | 1,976 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | Herr Amy E. | director | Sale | 1,860 @ $65.96 | $123K | −48.5% of holding | +3.3% | −25.1% | 1,976 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-27 | Kelderman Kim | director | Sale | 11,731 @ $77.19 | $906K | −22.4% of holding | −15.2% | −30.7% | 40,665 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-27 | Kelderman Kim | director | Sale | 1,661 @ $77.95 | $129K | −4.1% of holding | −15.2% | −30.7% | 39,004 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
200 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Bohnen Shane | officer | Award / grant | 18,432 | 18,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Herr Amy E. | director | Award / grant | 1,381 | 1,381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Geist William | officer | Award / grant | 23,985 | 23,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Geist William | officer | Award / grant | 14,762 | 14,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Crouse Steven C. | director | Award / grant | 14,140 | 14,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Crouse Steven C. | director | Award / grant | 8,702 | 8,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Hippel James | officer | Award / grant | 22,438 | 22,438 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Hippel James | officer | Award / grant | 36,459 | 36,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Kelderman Kim | director | Award / grant | 57,590 | 57,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Kelderman Kim | director | Award / grant | 93,582 | 93,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Bohnen Shane | officer | Award / grant | 11,344 | 11,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Kelderman Kim | director | Withheld for tax | 10,821 | 82,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Hippel James | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,310 | 170,183 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Geist William | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,976 | 24,943 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Crouse Steven C. | director | Withheld for tax | 1,947 | 10,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Bohnen Shane | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,343 | 10,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Herr Amy E. | director | Withheld for tax | 213 | 576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Kelderman Kim | director | Disposition | 8,319 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Crouse Steven C. | director | Option exercise | 5,423 | 12,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Kelderman Kim | director | Option exercise | 11,785 | 23,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Crouse Steven C. | director | Option exercise | 1,379 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Crouse Steven C. | director | Option exercise | 1,868 | 1,869 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Crouse Steven C. | director | Option exercise | 2,176 | 4,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Bohnen Shane | officer | Option exercise | 4,350 | 11,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Bohnen Shane | officer | Option exercise | 49 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Bohnen Shane | officer | Disposition | 12,117 | 807 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Bohnen Shane | officer | Option exercise | 300 | 4,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Bohnen Shane | officer | Disposition | 4,502 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Bohnen Shane | officer | Option exercise | 1,669 | 1,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Bohnen Shane | officer | Option exercise | 2,332 | 4,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Geist William | officer | Option exercise | 6,416 | 26,919 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Geist William | officer | Option exercise | 567 | 8,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Geist William | officer | Disposition | 8,507 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Geist William | officer | Disposition | 22,898 | 1,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Geist William | officer | Option exercise | 2,623 | 2,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Geist William | officer | Option exercise | 3,226 | 6,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Hippel James | officer | Option exercise | 9,779 | 174,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Hippel James | officer | Option exercise | 866 | 12,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Hippel James | officer | Disposition | 12,999 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Hippel James | officer | Disposition | 34,982 | 2,332 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-05-06 | 2026-04-08 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-04-06 | 2026-03-26 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-02-02 | 2026-01-28 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-01-05 | 2025-12-05 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-01-05 | 2025-12-02 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2025-11-04 | 2025-10-22 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2025-09-02 | 2025-08-01 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.