Issued 2026-09-16 at $601.10 · now $601.10 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TDY has typically landed between $541.51 and $661.89 — a range of −9.9% to +10.1% from the issuance price $601.10.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($601.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TDY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $601.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $601.1 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $604.88 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $578.61–$631.14
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $541.51–$661.89
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −48.2% | −48.2% | +1.4% |
| 2020-02-19 | −42.6% | −48.9% | +0.0% |
| 2009-01-05 | −40.9% | −40.9% | +0.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +58.1% | +0.0% | +63.9% |
| 2020-03-19 | +40.4% | +0.0% | +45.8% |
| 2009-03-11 | +35.9% | +0.0% | +35.9% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$30.4B
market cap
$20.71
EPS (TTM)
31.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-28
next earnings
Revenue$6.1B
'20'25
Net income$895M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr14.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr8.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.25
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$528.27
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$708.39
- Analyst target · range $465.00–$775.00$750.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$601.10
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
−0.1%
n=18
Feb
79%
+1.7%
n=19
Mar
68%
+2.6%
n=19
Apr
53%
+2.5%
n=19
May
42%
−0.6%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.0%
n=19
Jul
68%
+4.6%
n=19
Aug
63%
+1.0%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.0%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.6%
n=18
Nov
67%
+3.2%
n=18
Dec
50%
+1.5%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | LORNE SIMON M | director | Sale | 3,451 @ $679.74 | $2.3M | −5.5% of holding | −11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,781 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | LORNE SIMON M | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $680.18 | $1.4M | −3.4% of holding | −11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,781 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | LORNE SIMON M | director | Sale | 958 @ $682.81 | $654K | −1.7% of holding | −11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,783 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | VON SCHACK WESLEY W | director | Sale | 468 @ $686.63 | $321K | −4.1% of holding | −11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,902 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | LORNE SIMON M | director | Sale | 40 @ $681.79 | $27K | −0.1% of holding | −11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,741 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-03 | VanWees Jason | officer | Sale | 2,580 @ $630.49 | $1.6M | −4.6% of holding | +3.4% | −5.5% | 53,445 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | VanWees Jason | officer | Sale | 2,420 @ $631.39 | $1.5M | −4.5% of holding | +3.4% | −5.5% | 51,025 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | VanWees Jason | officer | Sale | 2,220 @ $630.39 | $1.4M | −43.2% of holding | +3.4% | −5.5% | 2,924 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | VanWees Jason | officer | Sale | 280 @ $631.07 | $177K | −9.6% of holding | +3.4% | −5.5% | 2,644 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | SMITH MICHAEL T | director | Sale | 2,469 @ $621.00 | $1.5M | −5.0% of holding | +11.2% | −3.4% | 47,328 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-28 | SMITH MICHAEL T | director | Sale | 1,531 @ $621.00 | $951K | −3.0% of holding | +11.2% | −2.6% | 49,797 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Sherburne Jane Cecile | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $554.76 | $1.1M | −31.1% of holding | +0.9% | +13.7% | 4,437 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-30 | Bobb George C III | director | Sale | 6,260 @ $555.35 | $3.5M | −36.6% of holding | −3.8% | +3.6% | 10,866 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-30 | Bobb George C III | director | Sale | 475 @ $556.21 | $264K | −4.4% of holding | −3.8% | +3.6% | 10,391 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-28 | SMITH MICHAEL T | director | Sale | 1,975 @ $560.10 | $1.1M | −3.7% of holding | −3.5% | +0.8% | 51,328 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | LORNE SIMON M | director | Sale | 4,533 @ $549.27 | $2.5M | −6.6% of holding | −3.5% | −0.1% | 63,691 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | LORNE SIMON M | director | Sale | 1,378 @ $550.37 | $758K | −2.2% of holding | −3.5% | −0.1% | 62,313 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | LORNE SIMON M | director | Sale | 400 @ $551.29 | $221K | −0.6% of holding | −3.5% | −0.1% | 61,913 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | VanWees Jason | officer | Sale | 3,700 @ $520.06 | $1.9M | −6.7% of holding | +0.8% | −5.5% | 51,324 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Cibik Melanie Susan | officer | Sale | 706 @ $519.96 | $367K | −2.6% of holding | +0.8% | −5.5% | 26,529 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-07 | MEHRABIAN ROBERT | director | Sale | 4,982 @ $510.33 | $2.5M | −3.3% of holding | +2.9% | −0.5% | 144,578 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-07 | MEHRABIAN ROBERT | director | Sale | 25 @ $511.06 | $13K | −0.0% of holding | +2.9% | −0.5% | 144,553 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-06 | MEHRABIAN ROBERT | director | Sale | 15,453 @ $513.63 | $7.9M | −9.0% of holding | +1.5% | +1.3% | 155,630 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | MEHRABIAN ROBERT | director | Sale | 10,877 @ $511.02 | $5.6M | −7.0% of holding | +1.5% | +1.3% | 144,553 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | MEHRABIAN ROBERT | director | Sale | 200 @ $514.70 | $103K | −0.1% of holding | +1.5% | +1.3% | 155,430 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-31 | MEHRABIAN ROBERT | director | Sale | 3,266 @ $518.63 | $1.7M | −2.2% of holding | +0.6% | +2.5% | 144,553 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-31 | MEHRABIAN ROBERT | director | Sale | 2,502 @ $517.68 | $1.3M | −1.7% of holding | +0.6% | +2.5% | 147,819 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-29 | Cibik Melanie Susan | officer | Sale | 2,699 @ $510.03 | $1.4M | −9.0% of holding | +2.5% | +2.7% | 27,235 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-28 | Cibik Melanie Susan | officer | Sale | 4,865 @ $510.10 | $2.5M | −15.2% of holding | +1.6% | +2.6% | 27,235 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-27 | Cibik Melanie Susan | officer | Sale | 2,538 @ $513.02 | $1.3M | −7.3% of holding | −0.6% | +2.0% | 32,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-27 | SMITH MICHAEL T | director | Sale | 2,100 @ $510.50 | $1.1M | −3.8% of holding | −0.6% | +2.0% | 52,835 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Blackwood Stephen Finis | officer | Sale | 4,850 @ $513.60 | $2.5M | −29.2% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 11,751 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Bobb George C III | director | Sale | 1,547 @ $505.13 | $781K | −9.2% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 15,243 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Bobb George C III | director | Sale | 1,522 @ $506.74 | $771K | −10.0% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 13,721 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Bobb George C III | director | Sale | 1,325 @ $509.09 | $675K | −10.1% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 11,782 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Bobb George C III | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $510.94 | $664K | −11.0% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 10,482 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Belak Cynthia Y | officer | Sale | 838 @ $509.07 | $427K | −13.4% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 5,424 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Belak Cynthia Y | officer | Sale | 841 @ $507.12 | $426K | −8.4% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 9,171 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Belak Cynthia Y | officer | Sale | 700 @ $510.83 | $358K | −8.7% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 7,306 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Belak Cynthia Y | officer | Sale | 695 @ $505.53 | $351K | −6.5% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 10,012 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Belak Cynthia Y | officer | Sale | 690 @ $508.96 | $351K | −7.9% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 8,006 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Bobb George C III | director | Sale | 614 @ $507.43 | $312K | −4.5% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 13,107 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Belak Cynthia Y | officer | Sale | 592 @ $507.42 | $300K | −8.6% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 6,262 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Belak Cynthia Y | officer | Sale | 475 @ $508.01 | $241K | −5.2% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 8,696 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Belak Cynthia Y | officer | Sale | 262 @ $509.94 | $134K | −4.8% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 5,162 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Belak Cynthia Y | officer | Sale | 252 @ $505.70 | $127K | −3.5% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 6,854 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Belak Cynthia Y | officer | Sale | 200 @ $511.31 | $102K | −2.7% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 7,106 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Belak Cynthia Y | officer | Sale | 200 @ $511.05 | $102K | −3.9% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 4,962 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Blackwood Stephen Finis | officer | Sale | 196 @ $514.01 | $101K | −1.2% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 16,601 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | SMITH MICHAEL T | director | Sale | 2,025 @ $478.25 | $968K | −3.6% of holding | −0.5% | +2.9% | 54,935 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-09 | CROCKER CHARLES | director | Sale | 1,099 @ $471.74 | $518K | −2.4% of holding | +0.6% | +4.7% | 44,475 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-09 | CROCKER CHARLES | director | Sale | 75 @ $472.56 | $35K | −0.2% of holding | +0.6% | +4.7% | 44,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-06 | CROCKER CHARLES | director | Sale | 826 @ $475.00 | $392K | −1.8% of holding | +0.2% | +5.6% | 45,574 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-08 | VanWees Jason | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $488.71 | $733K | −34.1% of holding | −4.5% | +1.5% | 2,900 | Form 4 · filed 42 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
109 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | LORNE SIMON M | director | Award / grant | 319 | 62,232 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Cibik Melanie Susan | officer | Award / grant | 2,138 | 2,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Bobb George C III | director | Award / grant | 5,515 | 5,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Belak Cynthia Y | officer | Award / grant | 1,255 | 1,255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Malone Robert A | director | Award / grant | 319 | 6,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Kumbier Michelle | director | Award / grant | 319 | 2,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | VON SCHACK WESLEY W | director | Award / grant | 319 | 11,370 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Black Laura A. | director | Award / grant | 319 | 502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Morales Vincent J | director | Award / grant | 319 | 2,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | SMITH MICHAEL T | director | Award / grant | 319 | 47,647 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Sherburne Jane Cecile | director | Award / grant | 319 | 4,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Blackwood Stephen Finis | officer | Award / grant | 2,470 | 2,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | MEHRABIAN ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 5,633 | 5,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | VanWees Jason | officer | Option exercise | 126 | 2,770 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | VanWees Jason | officer | Withheld for tax | 65 | 2,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | VanWees Jason | officer | Award / grant | 2,415 | 2,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | VanWees Jason | officer | Award / grant | 272 | 272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | VanWees Jason | officer | Option exercise | 126 | 254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | VanWees Jason | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 56,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | VanWees Jason | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 5,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | VanWees Jason | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | VanWees Jason | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 4,461 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | MEHRABIAN ROBERT | director | Withheld for tax | 1,630 | 127,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Belak Cynthia Y | officer | Disposition | 131 | 4,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Belak Cynthia Y | officer | Withheld for tax | 118 | 4,642 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Blackwood Stephen Finis | officer | Disposition | 137 | 11,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Blackwood Stephen Finis | officer | Withheld for tax | 123 | 11,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Bobb George C III | director | Disposition | 239 | 10,163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Bobb George C III | director | Withheld for tax | 201 | 9,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Cibik Melanie Susan | officer | Disposition | 165 | 26,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Cibik Melanie Susan | officer | Withheld for tax | 145 | 26,248 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | MEHRABIAN ROBERT | director | Disposition | 1,350 | 128,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | VanWees Jason | officer | Disposition | 184 | 51,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | VanWees Jason | officer | Withheld for tax | 160 | 51,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | VanWees Jason | officer | Withheld for tax | 50 | 2,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | VanWees Jason | officer | Option exercise | 120 | 122 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | VanWees Jason | officer | Option exercise | 121 | 2,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | VanWees Jason | officer | Award / grant | 1,119 | 1,119 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | MEHRABIAN ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 6,207 | 6,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | MEHRABIAN ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 2,690 | 2,690 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-01-05 | 2025-12-02 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2025-11-04 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | purchase | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2025-03-20 | 2025-02-22 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-12-05 | 2024-11-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2023-12-06 | 2023-11-03 | $1–15K |
| HON. GREG STANTON | House | sale | 2023-11-09 | 2022-10-24 | $1–15K |
| HON. GREG STANTON | House | purchase | 2023-11-09 | 2023-09-26 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-11-08 | 2023-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-11-08 | 2023-10-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2023-10-06 | 2023-09-06 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.