TDWTidewater Inc.Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $88.17 · now $88.17 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TDW has typically landed between $72.36 and $113.63 — a range of −17.9% to +28.9% from the issuance price $88.17.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($88.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TDW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $88.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$72.36worst · -17.9%$113.63best · +28.9%
  • now $88.17 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $91.34 (+3.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $81.5–$101.18
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $72.36–$113.63
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−67.0%−67.0%+1.9%
2020-02-19−66.2%−67.3%+1.0%
2020-02-14−62.4%−62.4%+1.2%
3 best
2016-11-09+147.7%+0.0%+147.7%
2016-11-08+130.9%+0.0%+130.9%
2016-11-10+124.0%+0.0%+124.0%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+1.8%
n=20
Feb
55%
+0.5%
n=20
Mar
55%
+1.1%
n=20
Apr
60%
+4.9%
n=20
May
45%
−4.7%
n=20
Jun
45%
+0.8%
n=20
Jul
65%
+3.5%
n=20
Aug
40%
−2.7%
n=20
Sep
35%
−3.5%
n=20
Oct
35%
−2.9%
n=20
Nov
35%
−0.6%
n=20
Dec
60%
+4.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$101$472026-09-02: 2 insider sales, $2.5M — Hudson Daniel A., Traub Kenneth2026-08-12: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Rubio Samuel R2026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $445K — Hudson Daniel A.2026-03-05: 2 insider sales, $2.2M — Rubio Samuel R, Hudson Daniel A.2026-02-23: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Hudson Daniel A.2026-02-11: 1 insider sale, $700K — Hudson Daniel A.2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $576K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $2.2M2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $2.1M2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $2.5M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Hudson Daniel A. — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Traub Kenneth — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rubio Samuel R — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hudson Daniel A. — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rubio Samuel R — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hudson Daniel A. — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hudson Daniel A. — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed same dayofficer Hudson Daniel A. — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02Hudson Daniel A.officerSale15,000 @ $99.08$1.5M−31.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open33,029Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02Traub KennethdirectorSale10,000 @ $99.00$990K−13.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open63,521Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12Rubio Samuel RofficerSale17,705 @ $91.56$1.6M−34.8% of holding+2.5%not yet — horizon still open33,214Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Hudson Daniel A.officerSale5,000 @ $89.01$445K−9.4% of holding+5.2%not yet — horizon still open48,229Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-05Rubio Samuel RofficerSale22,461 @ $80.05$1.8M−27.2% of holding+9.3%+3.7%60,066Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-05Hudson Daniel A.officerSale5,195 @ $80.56$419K−10.2% of holding+9.3%+3.7%45,971Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23Hudson Daniel A.officerSale15,000 @ $77.50$1.2M−22.7% of holding+1.5%+5.3%50,986Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-11Hudson Daniel A.officerSale10,000 @ $70.01$700K−13.2% of holding+12.2%+15.6%65,986Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-05Hudson Daniel A.officerSale10,000 @ $57.56$576K−11.6% of holding−12.8%−3.1%75,986Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-08Hudson Daniel A.officerSale5,000 @ $50.02$250K−5.5% of holding+17.0%−9.4%85,986Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-04ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorPurchase15,000 @ $42.05$631K+0.7% of holding+10.1%+26.5%2,234,957Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-03ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $42.14$421K+0.5% of holding+7.4%+12.9%2,219,957Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-30ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorPurchase560 @ $40.55$23K+0.0% of holding+15.0%+19.4%2,209,957Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-13ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorPurchase25,000 @ $40.11$1.0M+1.1% of holding−8.6%+28.4%2,208,670Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-05ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorPurchase1,770 @ $40.95$72K+0.1% of holding+0.3%+28.3%2,183,670Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-17ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorPurchase2,067 @ $48.26$100K+0.1% of holding+6.4%−14.9%2,181,340Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-16ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorPurchase4,000 @ $47.47$190K+0.2% of holding+19.6%−0.0%2,179,273Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-13Kneen QuintindirectorPurchase41,615 @ $48.06$2.0M+30.9% of holding+18.0%−0.7%176,239Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-13ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorPurchase16,000 @ $47.58$761K+0.7% of holding+18.0%−0.7%2,175,273Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-13ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorPurchase1,147 @ $47.70$55K+0.1% of holding+18.0%−0.7%2,159,273Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

78 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20Hudson Daniel A.officerGift20048,029Form 4
2026-06-16ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorAward / grant1,7602,214,941Form 4
2026-06-16Cougle MelissadirectorAward / grant1,76026,541Form 4
2026-06-16Zabrocky Lois KdirectorAward / grant1,76054,051Form 4
2026-06-16Traub KennethdirectorAward / grant1,76073,521Form 4
2026-06-16FAGERSTAL DICKdirectorAward / grant1,76075,592Form 4
2026-06-16RASPINO LOUISdirectorAward / grant1,76048,551Form 4
2026-06-12ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorGift16,9322,213,181Form 4
2026-04-01Cougle MelissadirectorAward / grant37424,781Form 4
2026-04-01ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorAward / grant3742,230,113Form 4
2026-03-23Kneen QuintindirectorWithheld for tax5,872358,870Form 4
2026-03-23Kneen QuintindirectorWithheld for tax5,766367,297Form 4
2026-03-23Kneen QuintindirectorWithheld for tax2,555364,742Form 4
2026-03-23Rubio Samuel RofficerWithheld for tax2,47268,299Form 4
2026-03-23Hudson Daniel A.officerWithheld for tax2,12855,224Form 4
2026-03-23Rubio Samuel RofficerWithheld for tax1,58770,771Form 4
2026-03-23Middleton Piers DayerofficerWithheld for tax1,40830,330Form 4
2026-03-23Hudson Daniel A.officerWithheld for tax1,36653,229Form 4
2026-03-23Middleton Piers DayerofficerWithheld for tax97929,351Form 4
2026-03-23Rubio Samuel RofficerWithheld for tax73067,569Form 4
2026-03-23Hudson Daniel A.officerWithheld for tax62954,595Form 4
2026-03-23Middleton Piers DayerofficerWithheld for tax34731,738Form 4
2026-03-18Kneen QuintindirectorAward / grant65,938373,453Form 4
2026-03-18Kneen QuintindirectorWithheld for tax25,965347,488Form 4
2026-03-18Kneen QuintindirectorAward / grant25,575373,063Form 4
2026-03-18Rubio Samuel RofficerAward / grant9,42069,486Form 4
2026-03-18Hudson Daniel A.officerAward / grant8,00553,976Form 4
2026-03-18Middleton Piers DayerofficerAward / grant6,64332,085Form 4
2026-03-18Hudson Daniel A.officerAward / grant6,64357,352Form 4
2026-03-18Rubio Samuel RofficerAward / grant6,64372,358Form 4
2026-03-18Rubio Samuel RofficerWithheld for tax3,77165,715Form 4
2026-03-18Hudson Daniel A.officerWithheld for tax3,26750,709Form 4
2026-03-17ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorGift10,0002,229,739Form 4
2026-01-02Middleton Piers DayerofficerWithheld for tax2,05325,442Form 4
2026-01-02ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorAward / grant5982,239,739Form 4
2026-01-02Cougle MelissadirectorAward / grant59824,407Form 4
2025-10-01Cougle MelissadirectorAward / grant57023,809Form 4
2025-10-01ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorAward / grant5702,239,141Form 4
2025-07-01Cougle MelissadirectorAward / grant65523,239Form 4
2025-07-01ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorAward / grant6552,238,571Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.