Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.46 · now $2.46 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TDUP has typically landed between $1.54 and $3.75 — a range of −37.6% to +52.5% from the issuance price $2.46.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,353 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-03-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TDUP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.46 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.34 (-5.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.91–$2.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.54–$3.75
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,353 windows spanning 2021-03-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-07-17 | −68.3% | −69.2% | +3.4% |
| 2024-07-18 | −66.6% | −69.4% | +2.9% |
| 2024-07-16 | −64.1% | −67.1% | +10.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-11-01 | +212.7% | −4.5% | +212.7% |
| 2024-11-04 | +212.4% | +0.0% | +227.5% |
| 2024-10-31 | +180.6% | −14.3% | +180.6% |
1,353 overlapping windows · 2021-03-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
+6.5%
n=5
Feb
20%
−2.9%
n=5
Mar
40%
+3.8%
n=5
Apr
50%
+10.1%
n=6
May
67%
+12.3%
n=6
Jun
67%
+6.1%
n=6
Jul
50%
+5.8%
n=6
Aug
50%
−13.1%
n=6
Sep
33%
−6.5%
n=6
Oct
0%
−17.4%
n=5
Nov
40%
+23.0%
n=5
Dec
40%
−9.3%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Reinhart James G. | director | Sale | 86,223 @ $2.58 | $223K | −5.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,612,505 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Reinhart James G. | director | Sale | 57,771 @ $2.58 | $149K | −3.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,666,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Reinhart James G. | director | Sale | 27,068 @ $2.58 | $70K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,691,648 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Homer Christopher | officer | Sale | 26,632 @ $2.58 | $69K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,363,358 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Homer Christopher | officer | Sale | 19,463 @ $2.58 | $50K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,383,478 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Sobers Sean | officer | Sale | 18,973 @ $2.58 | $49K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 613,503 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Homer Christopher | officer | Sale | 14,135 @ $2.58 | $36K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,398,088 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Sobers Sean | officer | Sale | 13,368 @ $2.58 | $35K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 625,968 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Sobers Sean | officer | Sale | 12,218 @ $2.58 | $32K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 637,360 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-02 | Reinhart James G. | director | Sale | 88,163 @ $4.43 | $391K | −5.7% of holding | +57.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,454,823 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Reinhart James G. | director | Sale | 59,070 @ $4.43 | $262K | −3.8% of holding | +57.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,507,420 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Reinhart James G. | director | Sale | 27,675 @ $4.43 | $123K | −1.8% of holding | +57.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,532,061 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Homer Christopher | officer | Sale | 27,229 @ $4.43 | $121K | −2.0% of holding | +57.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,301,843 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Homer Christopher | officer | Sale | 19,899 @ $4.43 | $88K | −1.5% of holding | +57.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,321,528 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Sobers Sean | officer | Sale | 19,397 @ $4.43 | $86K | −3.3% of holding | +57.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 572,523 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Homer Christopher | officer | Sale | 14,450 @ $4.43 | $64K | −1.1% of holding | +57.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,335,823 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Sobers Sean | officer | Sale | 13,667 @ $4.43 | $61K | −2.3% of holding | +57.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 584,690 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Sobers Sean | officer | Sale | 12,490 @ $4.43 | $55K | −2.1% of holding | +57.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 595,809 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Nakache Patricia | director | Purchase | 13,157 @ $3.73 | $49K | +1529.9% of holding | +1.2% | −40.8% | 14,017 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Reinhart James G. | director | Sale | 108,543 @ $3.82 | $415K | −9.9% of holding | −8.3% | −46.9% | 983,115 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Reinhart James G. | director | Sale | 72,724 @ $3.82 | $278K | −7.4% of holding | −8.3% | −46.9% | 910,391 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Reinhart James G. | director | Sale | 34,071 @ $3.82 | $130K | −3.7% of holding | −8.3% | −46.9% | 876,320 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Homer Christopher | officer | Sale | 30,951 @ $3.82 | $118K | −2.3% of holding | −8.3% | −46.9% | 1,313,696 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Sobers Sean | officer | Sale | 24,303 @ $3.82 | $93K | −4.0% of holding | −8.3% | −46.9% | 587,455 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Homer Christopher | officer | Sale | 22,471 @ $3.82 | $86K | −1.7% of holding | −8.3% | −46.9% | 1,291,225 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Sobers Sean | officer | Sale | 16,825 @ $3.82 | $64K | −2.9% of holding | −8.3% | −46.9% | 570,630 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Homer Christopher | officer | Sale | 16,319 @ $3.82 | $62K | −1.3% of holding | −8.3% | −46.9% | 1,274,906 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Sobers Sean | officer | Sale | 15,376 @ $3.82 | $59K | −2.7% of holding | −8.3% | −46.9% | 555,254 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Reinhart James G. | director | Sale | 85,824 @ $7.42 | $637K | −10.8% of holding | −18.5% | −46.9% | 706,844 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Reinhart James G. | director | Sale | 57,502 @ $7.42 | $427K | −7.0% of holding | −18.5% | −46.9% | 761,008 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Reinhart James G. | director | Sale | 55,364 @ $7.42 | $411K | −8.1% of holding | −18.5% | −46.9% | 626,001 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Homer Christopher | officer | Sale | 26,193 @ $7.42 | $194K | −2.2% of holding | −18.5% | −46.9% | 1,170,567 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Homer Christopher | officer | Sale | 24,362 @ $7.42 | $181K | −2.0% of holding | −18.5% | −46.9% | 1,200,372 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Sobers Sean | officer | Sale | 19,033 @ $7.42 | $141K | −3.7% of holding | −18.5% | −46.9% | 495,336 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Sobers Sean | officer | Sale | 18,883 @ $7.42 | $140K | −3.5% of holding | −18.5% | −46.9% | 513,120 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Homer Christopher | officer | Sale | 17,803 @ $7.42 | $132K | −1.4% of holding | −18.5% | −46.9% | 1,222,152 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Sobers Sean | officer | Sale | 13,304 @ $7.42 | $99K | −2.5% of holding | −18.5% | −46.9% | 525,649 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-07 | Reinhart James G. | director | Sale | 379,826 @ $7.93 | $3.0M | −39.8% of holding | +5.5% | −56.4% | 573,851 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-07 | Reinhart James G. | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $7.95 | $1.6M | −100.0% of holding | +5.5% | −56.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-05 | NOVA DANIEL J | director | Purchase | 65,000 @ $8.04 | $522K | +21.4% of holding | +8.5% | −48.9% | 368,930 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Rushing Coretha M | director | Sale | 105,000 @ $10.82 | $1.1M | −41.5% of holding | −15.3% | −67.8% | 148,197 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Reinhart James G. | director | Sale | 406,372 @ $9.91 | $4.0M | −34.7% of holding | +5.2% | −57.2% | 763,764 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-07 | Sobers Sean | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $10.04 | $502K | −10.5% of holding | +9.8% | −60.2% | 427,390 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Reinhart James G. | director | Sale | 158,514 @ $10.20 | $1.6M | −11.9% of holding | +11.8% | −63.4% | 1,170,136 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Sobers Sean | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $10.04 | $1.0M | −17.3% of holding | +11.8% | −63.4% | 477,390 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Nakache Patricia | director | Sale | 716,541 @ $6.46 | $4.6M | −100.0% of holding | +14.1% | +4.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Nakache Patricia | director | Sale | 7,095 @ $6.46 | $46K | −100.0% of holding | +14.1% | +4.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Nakache Patricia | director | Sale | 3,960 @ $6.46 | $26K | −100.0% of holding | +14.1% | +4.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Nakache Patricia | director | Sale | 47 @ $6.46 | $304 | −100.0% of holding | +14.1% | +4.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | Reinhart James G. | director | Sale | 276,378 @ $6.29 | $1.7M | −19.5% of holding | +13.1% | +2.0% | 1,138,737 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | Nakache Patricia | director | Sale | 209,608 @ $3.32 | $696K | −100.0% of holding | +99.6% | +148.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | Nakache Patricia | director | Sale | 2,076 @ $3.32 | $7K | −100.0% of holding | +99.6% | +148.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | Nakache Patricia | director | Sale | 1,158 @ $3.32 | $4K | −100.0% of holding | +99.6% | +148.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-17 | Nakache Patricia | director | Sale | 184,335 @ $3.30 | $608K | −100.0% of holding | +97.8% | +147.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-17 | Nakache Patricia | director | Sale | 1,825 @ $3.30 | $6K | −100.0% of holding | +97.8% | +147.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-17 | Nakache Patricia | director | Sale | 1,019 @ $3.30 | $3K | −100.0% of holding | +97.8% | +147.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-16 | Nakache Patricia | director | Sale | 273,991 @ $3.25 | $890K | −100.0% of holding | +104.9% | +151.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-16 | Nakache Patricia | director | Sale | 2,713 @ $3.25 | $9K | −100.0% of holding | +104.9% | +151.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-16 | Nakache Patricia | director | Sale | 1,514 @ $3.25 | $5K | −100.0% of holding | +104.9% | +151.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | Nakache Patricia | director | Sale | 267,633 @ $3.43 | $918K | −100.0% of holding | +90.5% | +149.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
226 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Homer Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 28,745 | 1,412,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Sobers Sean | officer | Option exercise | 23,610 | 378,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Sobers Sean | officer | Option exercise | 25,833 | 401,928 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Sobers Sean | officer | Option exercise | 36,667 | 427,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Sobers Sean | officer | Option exercise | 23,610 | 649,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Sobers Sean | officer | Option exercise | 36,667 | 632,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Sobers Sean | officer | Option exercise | 25,833 | 639,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Reinhart James G. | director | Option exercise | 52,316 | 1,195,861 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Reinhart James G. | director | Option exercise | 52,316 | 1,718,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Reinhart James G. | director | Option exercise | 111,666 | 1,724,171 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Reinhart James G. | director | Option exercise | 166,667 | 1,698,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Homer Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 39,583 | 1,402,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Homer Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 54,167 | 1,389,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Homer Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 28,745 | 510,790 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Homer Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 39,583 | 539,535 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Homer Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 54,167 | 579,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Reinhart James G. | director | Option exercise | 111,666 | 1,248,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Reinhart James G. | director | Option exercise | 166,667 | 1,359,843 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Paransky Noam | director | Award / grant | 2,265 | 686,572 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Nakache Patricia | director | Award / grant | 3,397 | 343,980 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Friedman Ian | director | Award / grant | 2,265 | 456,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Rushing Coretha M | director | Award / grant | 2,265 | 193,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | HALEY TIMOTHY M | director | Award / grant | 2,491 | 316,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Sobers Sean | officer | Option exercise | 25,834 | 598,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Sobers Sean | officer | Option exercise | 36,666 | 591,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Reinhart James G. | director | Option exercise | 52,316 | 1,526,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Reinhart James G. | director | Option exercise | 111,667 | 1,578,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Reinhart James G. | director | Option exercise | 166,666 | 1,690,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Reinhart James G. | director | Option exercise | 52,316 | 1,559,736 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Reinhart James G. | director | Option exercise | 111,667 | 1,566,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Reinhart James G. | director | Option exercise | 166,666 | 1,542,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Homer Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 28,745 | 633,285 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Homer Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 39,584 | 662,030 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Homer Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 54,166 | 701,614 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Homer Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 54,166 | 1,329,072 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Sobers Sean | officer | Option exercise | 25,834 | 488,037 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Sobers Sean | officer | Option exercise | 23,609 | 464,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Sobers Sean | officer | Option exercise | 36,666 | 513,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Homer Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 28,745 | 1,350,273 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Homer Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 39,584 | 1,341,427 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.