TDGTransDigm Group IncorporatedIndustrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1080.11 · now $1080.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TDG has typically landed between $961.57 and $1215.38 — a range of −11.0% to +12.5% from the issuance price $1080.11.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-022026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.756.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1080.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TDG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1,080 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$961.57worst · -11.0%$1,215best · +12.5%
  • now $1,080 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1,099 (+1.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1,049$1,149
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $961.57$1,215
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−61.7%−61.7%+0.0%
2020-02-19−52.3%−61.7%+0.0%
2020-02-20−52.3%−61.3%+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-06+53.6%+0.0%+53.6%
2020-05-07+52.5%−1.4%+52.5%
2020-05-05+48.4%−1.6%+48.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-022026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$69.2B
market cap
$32.04
EPS (TTM)
38.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$8.8B
'20'25
Net income$2.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr23.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-21.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-3.10
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $1,080$878.30$2,384
  • DCF (intrinsic)$2,280
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$982.12
  • Analyst target · range $1,345$1,645$1,463
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$1,080

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
72%
+4.5%
n=18
Feb
74%
+2.8%
n=19
Mar
58%
−2.1%
n=19
Apr
74%
+2.8%
n=19
May
74%
+5.0%
n=19
Jun
63%
+1.1%
n=19
Jul
74%
+2.9%
n=19
Aug
68%
+3.0%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.5%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.2%
n=18
Nov
83%
+6.2%
n=18
Dec
56%
+1.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$1K$1K2026-09-15: 27 insider sales, $4.3M — Reiss Joel …2026-08-18: 14 insider sales, $12.5M — Howley W Nicholas …2026-08-17: 19 insider sales, $4.8M — Reiss Joel …2026-07-20: 12 insider sales, $12.3M — Howley W Nicholas …2026-07-15: 33 insider sales, $4.7M — Reiss Joel …2026-06-18: 66 insider sales, $40.1M — Howley W Nicholas …2026-06-15: 18 insider sales, $5.0M — Reiss Joel …2026-05-18: 25 insider sales, $12.0M — Howley W Nicholas …2026-05-15: 27 insider sales, $4.5M — Reiss Joel …2026-04-20: 11 insider sales, $12.8M — Howley W Nicholas …2026-04-15: 17 insider sales, $5.0M — Reiss Joel …2025-08: 28 open-market sales, $10.5M2025-09: 33 open-market sales, $13.7M2025-10: 22 open-market sales, $9.1M2025-11: 6 open-market purchases, $2.6M2025-11: 55 open-market sales, $32.9M2025-12: 40 open-market sales, $156.9M2026-01: 50 open-market sales, $75.5M2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $1.2M2026-02: 69 open-market sales, $87.3M2026-03: 42 open-market sales, $17.1M2026-04: 28 open-market sales, $17.8M2026-05: 52 open-market sales, $16.5M2026-06: 84 open-market sales, $45.1M2026-07: 45 open-market sales, $17.1M2026-08: 33 open-market sales, $17.4M2026-09: 27 open-market sales, $4.3M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-04-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-04-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-04-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-04-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-04-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-04-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-04-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-04-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-04-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-04-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Howley W Nicholas — Sale on 2026-04-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reiss Joel — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale383 @ $1094.06$419K−6.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open5,535Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale310 @ $1082.96$336K−4.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open7,190Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale294 @ $1097.26$323K−5.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,820Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale282 @ $1093.10$308K−4.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open5,918Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale274 @ $1102.49$302K−6.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,080Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale240 @ $1084.87$260K−3.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open6,780Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale225 @ $1095.11$246K−4.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open5,310Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale210 @ $1103.44$232K−5.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,870Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale196 @ $1096.17$215K−3.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open5,114Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale170 @ $1092.13$186K−2.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open6,200Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale170 @ $1083.67$184K−2.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open7,020Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale166 @ $1101.52$183K−3.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,354Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale150 @ $1098.41$165K−3.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,670Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale125 @ $1104.58$138K−3.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,745Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale120 @ $1087.49$130K−1.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open6,550Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale110 @ $1086.27$119K−1.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open6,670Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale100 @ $1091.00$109K−1.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open6,370Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale90 @ $1099.14$99K−1.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,580Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale70 @ $1090.06$76K−1.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open6,470Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale60 @ $1100.41$66K−1.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,520Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale40 @ $1106.69$44K−1.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,700Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale30 @ $1112.38$33K−0.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,640Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale30 @ $1108.34$33K−0.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,670Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale20 @ $1118.99$22K−0.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,600Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale20 @ $1113.37$22K−0.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,620Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale10 @ $1088.06$11K−0.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open6,540Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerSale5 @ $1105.28$6K−0.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,740Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18Howley W NicholasdirectorSale3,980 @ $1239.17$4.9M−14.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open23,051Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18Howley W NicholasdirectorSale1,313 @ $1240.42$1.6M−5.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open21,738Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18Howley W NicholasdirectorSale1,055 @ $1232.01$1.3M−3.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open28,661Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18Howley W NicholasdirectorSale830 @ $1231.12$1.0M−2.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open29,716Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18Howley W NicholasdirectorSale570 @ $1230.02$701K−1.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open30,546Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18Howley W NicholasdirectorSale520 @ $1238.08$644K−1.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open27,031Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18Howley W NicholasdirectorSale450 @ $1233.30$555K−1.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open28,211Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18Howley W NicholasdirectorSale290 @ $1229.09$356K−0.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open31,116Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18Howley W NicholasdirectorSale270 @ $1234.69$333K−1.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open27,941Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18Howley W NicholasdirectorSale250 @ $1236.89$309K−0.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open27,551Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18Howley W NicholasdirectorSale204 @ $1225.60$250K−0.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open31,476Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18Howley W NicholasdirectorSale190 @ $1241.14$236K−0.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open21,548Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18Howley W NicholasdirectorSale140 @ $1236.12$173K−0.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open27,801Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18Howley W NicholasdirectorSale70 @ $1227.62$86K−0.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open31,406Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale671 @ $1236.80$830K−10.5% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open5,729Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale499 @ $1237.87$618K−8.7% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open5,230Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale400 @ $1239.99$496K−8.2% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open4,490Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale373 @ $1235.86$461K−5.5% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open6,400Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale340 @ $1238.84$421K−6.5% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open4,890Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale327 @ $1234.93$404K−4.6% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open6,773Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale260 @ $1233.87$321K−3.5% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open7,100Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale145 @ $1245.29$181K−3.6% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open3,875Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale140 @ $1232.82$173K−1.9% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open7,360Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale138 @ $1243.03$172K−3.2% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open4,120Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale120 @ $1240.78$149K−2.7% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open4,370Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale112 @ $1242.28$139K−2.6% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open4,258Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale100 @ $1243.91$124K−2.4% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open4,020Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale80 @ $1252.11$100K−2.2% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open3,630Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale60 @ $1248.26$75K−1.6% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open3,730Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale48 @ $1247.31$60K−1.3% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open3,790Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale37 @ $1245.90$46K−1.0% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open3,838Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale30 @ $1253.08$38K−0.8% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open3,600Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerSale20 @ $1250.82$25K−0.5% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open3,710Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

31 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerOption exercise3,9007,500Form 4
2026-09-15Reiss JoelofficerOption exercise3,9004,100Form 4
2026-08-18Howley W NicholasdirectorOption exercise10,13231,680Form 4
2026-08-18Howley W NicholasdirectorOption exercise10,1321,700Form 4
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerOption exercise3,9007,500Form 4
2026-08-17Reiss JoelofficerOption exercise3,9008,000Form 4
2026-07-20Howley W NicholasdirectorOption exercise10,13231,680Form 4
2026-07-20Howley W NicholasdirectorOption exercise10,13211,832Form 4
2026-07-15Reiss JoelofficerOption exercise3,9007,500Form 4
2026-07-15Reiss JoelofficerOption exercise3,90019,700Form 4
2026-06-18Howley W NicholasdirectorOption exercise10,13231,680Form 4
2026-06-18Howley W NicholasdirectorOption exercise10,13231,680Form 4
2026-06-18Howley W NicholasdirectorOption exercise10,13231,680Form 4
2026-06-18Howley W NicholasdirectorOption exercise10,13221,964Form 4
2026-06-18Howley W NicholasdirectorOption exercise10,13221,964Form 4
2026-06-18Howley W NicholasdirectorOption exercise10,13221,964Form 4
2026-06-15Reiss JoelofficerOption exercise3,9007,500Form 4
2026-06-15Reiss JoelofficerOption exercise3,90015,800Form 4
2026-05-18Howley W NicholasdirectorOption exercise10,13231,680Form 4
2026-05-18Howley W NicholasdirectorOption exercise10,13232,096Form 4
2026-05-15Reiss JoelofficerOption exercise3,9007,500Form 4
2026-05-15Reiss JoelofficerOption exercise3,90019,700Form 4
2026-04-20Howley W NicholasdirectorOption exercise9,78931,337Form 4
2026-04-20Howley W NicholasdirectorOption exercise34331,680Form 4
2026-04-20Howley W NicholasdirectorOption exercise9,7890Form 4
2026-04-20Howley W NicholasdirectorOption exercise34342,228Form 4
2026-04-15Reiss JoelofficerOption exercise3,9007,500Form 4
2026-04-15Reiss JoelofficerOption exercise3,90023,600Form 4
2026-03-20Howley W NicholasdirectorAward / grant113113Form 4
2026-03-20HENNESSY SEAN PdirectorAward / grant4133,790Form 4
2026-03-20BARR DAVIDdirectorAward / grant4132,179Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-06-052026-05-21$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-06-052026-05-08$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-06-052026-05-07$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-06-052026-05-13$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-06-052026-05-22$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-05-062026-04-29$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-05-062026-04-20$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-05-062026-04-15$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-05-062026-04-16$15–50K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-05-062026-04-17$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-16$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-04-072026-03-25$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-30$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.