Issued 2026-09-16 at $1080.11 · now $1080.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TDG has typically landed between $961.57 and $1215.38 — a range of −11.0% to +12.5% from the issuance price $1080.11.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1080.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TDG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1,080 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1,080 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1,099 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1,049–$1,149
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $961.57–$1,215
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −61.7% | −61.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −52.3% | −61.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −52.3% | −61.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-06 | +53.6% | +0.0% | +53.6% |
| 2020-05-07 | +52.5% | −1.4% | +52.5% |
| 2020-05-05 | +48.4% | −1.6% | +48.4% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$2,280
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$982.12
- Analyst target · range $1,345–$1,645$1,463
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$1,080
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 383 @ $1094.06 | $419K | −6.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,535 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 310 @ $1082.96 | $336K | −4.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,190 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 294 @ $1097.26 | $323K | −5.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,820 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 282 @ $1093.10 | $308K | −4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,918 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 274 @ $1102.49 | $302K | −6.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,080 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 240 @ $1084.87 | $260K | −3.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 225 @ $1095.11 | $246K | −4.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,310 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 210 @ $1103.44 | $232K | −5.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,870 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 196 @ $1096.17 | $215K | −3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,114 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 170 @ $1092.13 | $186K | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 170 @ $1083.67 | $184K | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,020 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 166 @ $1101.52 | $183K | −3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,354 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 150 @ $1098.41 | $165K | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,670 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 125 @ $1104.58 | $138K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,745 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 120 @ $1087.49 | $130K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,550 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 110 @ $1086.27 | $119K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,670 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 100 @ $1091.00 | $109K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,370 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 90 @ $1099.14 | $99K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,580 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 70 @ $1090.06 | $76K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 60 @ $1100.41 | $66K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,520 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 40 @ $1106.69 | $44K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,700 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 30 @ $1112.38 | $33K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,640 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 30 @ $1108.34 | $33K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,670 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 20 @ $1118.99 | $22K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 20 @ $1113.37 | $22K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,620 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 10 @ $1088.06 | $11K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,540 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 5 @ $1105.28 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,740 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Sale | 3,980 @ $1239.17 | $4.9M | −14.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,051 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Sale | 1,313 @ $1240.42 | $1.6M | −5.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,738 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Sale | 1,055 @ $1232.01 | $1.3M | −3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,661 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Sale | 830 @ $1231.12 | $1.0M | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,716 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Sale | 570 @ $1230.02 | $701K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,546 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Sale | 520 @ $1238.08 | $644K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,031 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Sale | 450 @ $1233.30 | $555K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,211 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Sale | 290 @ $1229.09 | $356K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,116 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Sale | 270 @ $1234.69 | $333K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,941 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Sale | 250 @ $1236.89 | $309K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,551 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Sale | 204 @ $1225.60 | $250K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,476 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Sale | 190 @ $1241.14 | $236K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,548 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Sale | 140 @ $1236.12 | $173K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,801 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Sale | 70 @ $1227.62 | $86K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 671 @ $1236.80 | $830K | −10.5% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,729 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 499 @ $1237.87 | $618K | −8.7% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,230 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 400 @ $1239.99 | $496K | −8.2% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,490 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 373 @ $1235.86 | $461K | −5.5% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 340 @ $1238.84 | $421K | −6.5% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,890 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 327 @ $1234.93 | $404K | −4.6% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,773 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 260 @ $1233.87 | $321K | −3.5% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 145 @ $1245.29 | $181K | −3.6% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,875 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 140 @ $1232.82 | $173K | −1.9% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,360 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 138 @ $1243.03 | $172K | −3.2% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,120 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 120 @ $1240.78 | $149K | −2.7% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,370 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 112 @ $1242.28 | $139K | −2.6% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,258 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 100 @ $1243.91 | $124K | −2.4% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,020 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1252.11 | $100K | −2.2% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,630 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 60 @ $1248.26 | $75K | −1.6% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,730 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 48 @ $1247.31 | $60K | −1.3% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,790 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 37 @ $1245.90 | $46K | −1.0% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,838 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 30 @ $1253.08 | $38K | −0.8% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Sale | 20 @ $1250.82 | $25K | −0.5% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,710 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
31 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Option exercise | 3,900 | 7,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Option exercise | 3,900 | 4,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Option exercise | 10,132 | 31,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Option exercise | 10,132 | 1,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Option exercise | 3,900 | 7,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | officer | Option exercise | 3,900 | 8,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Option exercise | 10,132 | 31,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Option exercise | 10,132 | 11,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Option exercise | 3,900 | 7,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Option exercise | 3,900 | 19,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Option exercise | 10,132 | 31,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Option exercise | 10,132 | 31,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Option exercise | 10,132 | 31,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Option exercise | 10,132 | 21,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Option exercise | 10,132 | 21,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Option exercise | 10,132 | 21,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Option exercise | 3,900 | 7,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Option exercise | 3,900 | 15,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Option exercise | 10,132 | 31,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Option exercise | 10,132 | 32,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Option exercise | 3,900 | 7,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Option exercise | 3,900 | 19,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Option exercise | 9,789 | 31,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Option exercise | 343 | 31,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Option exercise | 9,789 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Option exercise | 343 | 42,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Option exercise | 3,900 | 7,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Reiss Joel | officer | Option exercise | 3,900 | 23,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Howley W Nicholas | director | Award / grant | 113 | 113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | HENNESSY SEAN P | director | Award / grant | 41 | 33,790 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | BARR DAVID | director | Award / grant | 41 | 32,179 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-06-05 | 2026-05-21 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-06-05 | 2026-05-08 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-06-05 | 2026-05-07 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-06-05 | 2026-05-13 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-06-05 | 2026-05-22 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-05-06 | 2026-04-29 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-05-06 | 2026-04-20 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-05-06 | 2026-04-15 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-05-06 | 2026-04-16 | $15–50K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-05-06 | 2026-04-17 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-16 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-25 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-30 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.