TDC · TickerCove

TDCTeradata Corporationas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $29.17 · now $29.17 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TDC has typically landed between $23.52 and $34.11 — a range of −19.4% to +16.9% from the issuance price $29.17.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($29.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$29.17 · 50% of range

$20.42 low$37.88 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.3%

typical move · IQR 13.6%

−19.4%worst (p90)+16.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

2 buys · 4 sells · 2 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where TDC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $29.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $29.17 (+0.0%)
typical $29.08 (-0.3%)
middle 50% $27.1–$31.06
90% range $23.52–$34.11

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-11	−35.0%	−35.0%	+0.7%
2008-09-10	−32.5%	−32.5%	+0.0%
2008-09-08	−32.3%	−32.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2021-01-08	+125.4%	−0.7%	+125.4%
2021-01-07	+102.6%	−0.5%	+102.6%
2021-01-13	+102.2%	+0.0%	+120.5%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

61%

+1.4%

n=18

Feb

68%

+6.0%

n=19

Mar

53%

−1.0%

n=19

Apr

47%

+0.7%

n=19

May

42%

+2.4%

n=19

Jun

58%

+0.5%

n=19

Jul

63%

+0.8%

n=19

Aug

63%

+0.0%

n=19

Sep

47%

−1.0%

n=19

Oct

33%

−4.4%

n=18

Nov

61%

+2.5%

n=18

Dec

61%

−0.0%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-08	CHOU TIMOTHY C K	director	Sale	5,657 @ $33.72	$191K	−12.6% of holding	+1.4%	not yet — horizon still open	39,210	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01	Petley Richard J	officer	Sale	16,237 @ $35.00	$568K	−7.9% of holding	−5.0%	not yet — horizon still open	189,561	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	Petley Richard J	officer	Sale	990 @ $35.01	$35K	−0.5% of holding	−5.0%	not yet — horizon still open	188,571	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-22	McElhatton Todd	director	Sale	15,000 @ $33.47	$502K	−36.0% of holding	−3.8%	not yet — horizon still open	26,665	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-19	Arora Sumeet	officer	Sale	15,000 @ $33.00	$495K	−5.6% of holding	−7.5%	not yet — horizon still open	250,772	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-12	MCMILLAN STEPHEN	director	Sale	20,000 @ $31.71	$634K	−2.6% of holding	+3.4%	not yet — horizon still open	762,446	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-07	Petley Richard J	officer	Sale	34,317 @ $30.84	$1.1M	−14.2% of holding	+12.7%	not yet — horizon still open	207,627	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-07	Arora Sumeet	officer	Sale	2,645 @ $30.84	$82K	−0.9% of holding	+12.7%	not yet — horizon still open	301,452	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-26	MCMILLAN STEPHEN	director	Sale	50,000 @ $30.26	$1.5M	−7.0% of holding	−10.5%	−15.6%	663,190	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24	Gianoni Michael P	director	Sale	25,000 @ $29.96	$749K	−44.2% of holding	−9.2%	−19.1%	31,523	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11	Lynrock Lake LP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	40,807 @ $40.24	$1.6M	−0.4% of holding	−25.5%	−34.9%	9,365,345	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-11	Lynrock Lake LP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	10,669 @ $41.19	$439K	−0.1% of holding	−25.5%	−34.9%	9,354,676	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-11	Lynrock Lake LP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	10,514 @ $39.57	$416K	−0.1% of holding	−25.5%	−34.9%	9,406,152	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-22	CHOU TIMOTHY C K	director	Sale	6,216 @ $21.83	$136K	−14.7% of holding	−5.5%	+8.0%	36,077	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-03-10	BRAMLEY CLAIRE	director	Sale	19,839 @ $22.82	$453K	−15.8% of holding	−3.0%	−23.2%	105,933	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10	BRAMLEY CLAIRE	director	Sale	15,225 @ $22.82	$347K	−10.8% of holding	−3.0%	−23.2%	126,072	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10	BRAMLEY CLAIRE	director	Sale	300 @ $23.50	$7K	−0.2% of holding	−3.0%	−23.2%	125,772	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10	BRAMLEY CLAIRE	director	Sale	100 @ $23.52	$2K	−0.1% of holding	−3.0%	−23.2%	105,833	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-07	Cullen-Cote Kathleen R	officer	Sale	1,755 @ $22.88	$40K	−1.2% of holding	−4.5%	−21.1%	142,707	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-04	Cullen-Cote Kathleen R	officer	Sale	1,881 @ $23.16	$44K	−1.3% of holding	+0.4%	−23.2%	147,747	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03	Cullen-Cote Kathleen R	officer	Sale	5,955 @ $23.87	$142K	−5.2% of holding	+0.9%	−21.7%	108,996	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-28	Cullen-Cote Kathleen R	officer	Sale	2,353 @ $23.39	$55K	−2.0% of holding	−0.1%	−21.2%	114,951	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

120 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	Fisher Melissa B	director	Award / grant	344	15,800	Form 4
2026-09-01	Fisher Melissa B	director	Award / grant	619	15,456	Form 4
2026-08-14	McElhatton Todd	director	Award / grant	2,197	28,862	Form 4
2026-08-14	Fisher Melissa B	director	Award / grant	2,197	14,837	Form 4
2026-08-14	Bacus Lisa R	director	Award / grant	2,197	86,091	Form 4
2026-08-14	Gianoni Michael P	director	Award / grant	2,197	42,510	Form 4
2026-08-14	Nelson Kimberly K.	director	Award / grant	2,197	64,172	Form 4
2026-08-01	Leukert Bernd	director	Award / grant	8,330	8,330	Form 4
2026-06-15	Rogers Scot Frazier	officer	Withheld for tax	13,247	216,637	Form 4
2026-06-15	Rogers Scot Frazier	officer	Withheld for tax	10,266	229,884	Form 4
2026-05-18	Arora Sumeet	officer	Withheld for tax	22,127	265,772	Form 4
2026-05-18	Arora Sumeet	officer	Withheld for tax	13,553	287,899	Form 4
2026-05-18	Ederer John	officer	Withheld for tax	13,355	368,426	Form 4
2026-05-14	Gianoni Michael P	director	Award / grant	8,790	40,313	Form 4
2026-05-14	SCHWARZ JOHN	director	Award / grant	8,790	110,569	Form 4
2026-05-14	CHOU TIMOTHY C K	director	Award / grant	8,790	44,867	Form 4
2026-05-14	Nelson Kimberly K.	director	Award / grant	8,790	61,975	Form 4
2026-05-14	Fisher Melissa B	director	Award / grant	8,790	12,640	Form 4
2026-05-14	Bacus Lisa R	director	Award / grant	8,790	83,894	Form 4
2026-05-14	Olsen Joanne Beth	director	Award / grant	8,790	69,001	Form 4
2026-05-14	McElhatton Todd	director	Award / grant	8,790	41,665	Form 4
2026-05-13	Petley Richard J	officer	Withheld for tax	1,829	205,798	Form 4
2026-03-09	MCMILLAN STEPHEN	director	Other acquisition	4,376	782,446	Form 4
2026-03-06	MCMILLAN STEPHEN	director	Withheld for tax	22,230	786,822	Form 4
2026-03-06	Hutchinson Michael D	officer	Withheld for tax	3,727	220,004	Form 4
2026-03-06	Petley Richard J	officer	Withheld for tax	3,180	241,944	Form 4
2026-03-03	MCMILLAN STEPHEN	director	Withheld for tax	40,319	602,781	Form 4
2026-03-03	Hutchinson Michael D	officer	Withheld for tax	15,208	157,724	Form 4
2026-03-03	Petley Richard J	officer	Withheld for tax	13,309	170,867	Form 4
2026-03-01	Hutchinson Michael D	officer	Award / grant	66,007	223,731	Form 4
2026-03-01	MCMILLAN STEPHEN	director	Award / grant	206,271	809,052	Form 4
2026-03-01	Fisher Melissa B	director	Award / grant	2,475	2,475	Form 4
2026-03-01	Rogers Scot Frazier	officer	Award / grant	53,630	240,150	Form 4
2026-03-01	Fisher Melissa B	director	Award / grant	1,375	3,850	Form 4
2026-03-01	Petley Richard J	officer	Award / grant	74,257	245,124	Form 4
2026-03-01	Ederer John	officer	Award / grant	74,257	381,781	Form 4
2026-03-01	Arora Sumeet	officer	Award / grant	66,007	304,097	Form 4
2026-02-27	MCMILLAN STEPHEN	director	Withheld for tax	20,090	643,100	Form 4
2026-02-27	Hutchinson Michael D	officer	Withheld for tax	5,052	172,932	Form 4
2026-02-27	Petley Richard J	officer	Withheld for tax	2,899	184,176	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Pete Sessions	House	sale	2022-02-11	2022-01-18	$1–15K
Tom Malinowski	House	purchase	2021-06-12	2021-04-26	$50–100K
Tom Malinowski	House	purchase	2021-03-06	2021-02-12	$15–50K
Tom Malinowski	House	sale	2021-03-05	2020-10-20	$1–15K
Tom Malinowski	House	sale	2021-03-05	2020-07-17	$1–15K
Tom Malinowski	House	sale	2021-03-05	2020-06-24	$15–50K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i