Issued 2026-09-25 at $10.87 · now $10.87 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, TDAC has typically landed between $10.82 and $10.99 — a range of −0.4% to +1.1% from the issuance price $10.87.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
385 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-02-13 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($10.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TDAC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $10.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.87 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.91 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.88–$10.94
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.82–$10.99
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-06-01 | −0.7% | −0.7% | +0.1% |
| 2026-05-28 | −0.7% | −0.7% | +0.0% |
| 2026-05-29 | −0.6% | −0.6% | +0.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-10 | +1.6% | +0.0% | +1.6% |
| 2026-07-08 | +1.6% | +0.0% | +1.6% |
| 2026-07-01 | +1.5% | +0.0% | +1.6% |
385 overlapping windows · 2025-02-13 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Purchase | 53,395 @ $0.79 | $42K | ownership Δ n/a | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,395 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.