TCBK · TickerCove

TCBKTriCo BancsharesFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $53.43 · now $53.43 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TCBK has typically landed between $47.23 and $61.55 — a range of −11.6% to +15.2% from the issuance price $53.43.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($53.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$53.43 · 62% of range

$39.85 low$61.62 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.8%

typical move · IQR 11.8%

−11.6%worst (p90)+15.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where TCBK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $53.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $53.43 (+0.0%)
typical $53.85 (+0.8%)
middle 50% $50.69–$57
90% range $47.23–$61.55

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2009-02-03	−43.8%	−43.8%	+0.0%
2008-09-19	−42.5%	−52.3%	+0.0%
2008-06-05	−40.8%	−40.8%	+0.0%
3 best
2008-08-20	+103.5%	−1.7%	+103.5%
2008-07-14	+77.7%	−0.2%	+79.7%
2008-07-15	+72.6%	+0.0%	+80.0%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−2.5%

n=20

Feb

45%

−1.1%

n=20

Mar

65%

+1.6%

n=20

Apr

30%

−2.5%

n=20

May

50%

+0.3%

n=20

Jun

65%

−0.3%

n=20

Jul

65%

+4.0%

n=20

Aug

40%

−1.9%

n=20

Sep

50%

+2.9%

n=20

Oct

75%

+4.9%

n=20

Nov

65%

+4.6%

n=20

Dec

50%

+1.2%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

300 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-25	SMITH RICHARD P	director	Withheld for tax	8,511	287,747	Form 4
2026-06-25	Wiese Peter G	officer	Withheld for tax	3,659	53,350	Form 4
2026-06-25	BAILEY DANIEL K	officer	Withheld for tax	2,804	61,270	Form 4
2026-06-25	CARNEY CRAIG B	officer	Withheld for tax	2,675	40,688	Form 4
2026-06-25	Gehlmann Gregory A	officer	Withheld for tax	1,686	22,722	Form 4
2026-06-25	Levingston Jason Todd	officer	Withheld for tax	940	3,354	Form 4
2026-06-25	Rudd Angela Tamara	officer	Withheld for tax	235	5,499	Form 4
2026-06-25	CARNEY CRAIG B	officer	Option exercise	4,171	10,705	Form 4
2026-06-25	Gehlmann Gregory A	officer	Option exercise	2,630	6,748	Form 4
2026-06-25	BAILEY DANIEL K	officer	Option exercise	4,373	11,800	Form 4
2026-06-25	Levingston Jason Todd	officer	Option exercise	1,467	4,609	Form 4
2026-06-25	Rudd Angela Tamara	officer	Option exercise	667	2,557	Form 4
2026-06-25	SMITH RICHARD P	director	Option exercise	13,271	33,848	Form 4
2026-06-25	Wiese Peter G	officer	Option exercise	5,724	14,709	Form 4
2026-06-25	CARNEY CRAIG B	officer	Option exercise	4,561	43,363	Form 4
2026-06-25	SMITH RICHARD P	director	Option exercise	14,513	296,258	Form 4
2026-06-25	CARNEY CRAIG B	officer	Option exercise	4,561	43,363	Form 4
2026-06-25	Levingston Jason Todd	officer	Option exercise	1,604	4,294	Form 4
2026-06-25	BAILEY DANIEL K	officer	Option exercise	4,782	64,074	Form 4
2026-06-25	SMITH RICHARD P	director	Option exercise	14,513	296,258	Form 4
2026-06-25	Rudd Angela Tamara	officer	Option exercise	729	5,734	Form 4
2026-06-25	Gehlmann Gregory A	officer	Option exercise	2,876	24,408	Form 4
2026-06-25	Wiese Peter G	officer	Option exercise	6,259	57,009	Form 4
2026-06-25	Gehlmann Gregory A	officer	Option exercise	2,876	24,408	Form 4
2026-06-25	Levingston Jason Todd	officer	Option exercise	1,604	4,294	Form 4
2026-06-25	Wiese Peter G	officer	Option exercise	6,259	57,009	Form 4
2026-06-25	Rudd Angela Tamara	officer	Option exercise	729	5,734	Form 4
2026-06-25	BAILEY DANIEL K	officer	Option exercise	4,782	64,074	Form 4
2026-06-19	Giese Cory W	director	Other acquisition	426,838	426,838	Form 4
2026-06-19	Giese Cory W	director	Other acquisition	426,838	426,838	Form 4
2026-06-12	SMITH RICHARD P	director	Withheld for tax	2,861	281,745	Form 4
2026-06-12	Wiese Peter G	officer	Withheld for tax	1,104	50,750	Form 4
2026-06-12	BAILEY DANIEL K	officer	Withheld for tax	943	59,292	Form 4
2026-06-12	CARNEY CRAIG B	officer	Withheld for tax	899	38,802	Form 4
2026-06-12	Gehlmann Gregory A	officer	Withheld for tax	567	21,532	Form 4
2026-06-12	Levingston Jason Todd	officer	Withheld for tax	316	2,690	Form 4
2026-06-12	Rudd Angela Tamara	officer	Withheld for tax	78	5,005	Form 4
2026-06-12	Wiese Peter G	officer	Option exercise	2,104	9,654	Form 4
2026-06-12	Gehlmann Gregory A	officer	Option exercise	967	4,430	Form 4
2026-06-12	BAILEY DANIEL K	officer	Option exercise	1,608	7,944	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i