TBPH · TickerCove

TBPHTheravance Biopharma IncHealthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.03 · now $17.03 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TBPH has typically landed between $14.71 and $20.39 — a range of −13.6% to +19.7% from the issuance price $17.03.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,081 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-05-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$17.03 · 48% of range

$13.57 low$20.74 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.0%

typical move · IQR 11.4%

−13.6%worst (p90)+19.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where TBPH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $17.03 (+0.0%)
typical $17.2 (+1.0%)
middle 50% $16.23–$18.18
90% range $14.71–$20.39

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,081 windows spanning 2014-05-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2021-08-16	−49.7%	−49.7%	+5.3%
2021-08-20	−49.5%	−51.8%	+0.9%
2021-08-23	−49.0%	−52.2%	+0.0%
3 best
2014-06-02	+73.6%	+0.0%	+78.8%
2014-05-22	+62.0%	−9.4%	+62.0%
2021-12-03	+61.8%	+0.0%	+61.8%

3,081 overlapping windows · 2014-05-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−2.0%

n=12

Feb

25%

+0.6%

n=12

Mar

33%

−0.2%

n=12

Apr

58%

+3.9%

n=12

May

33%

−6.7%

n=12

Jun

38%

+2.2%

n=13

Jul

38%

+0.4%

n=13

Aug

69%

+1.9%

n=13

Sep

38%

−2.8%

n=13

Oct

50%

−2.6%

n=12

Nov

75%

+11.3%

n=12

Dec

58%

+4.2%

n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-07	Samaha Eli	director	Sale	5,564 @ $17.17	$96K	−0.1% of holding	−3.6%	not yet — horizon still open	9,167,489	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-06	Samaha Eli	director	Sale	1,400 @ $17.04	$24K	−0.0% of holding	−3.4%	not yet — horizon still open	9,173,053	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-01	Samaha Eli	director	Sale	37,799 @ $17.00	$643K	−0.4% of holding	−0.9%	not yet — horizon still open	9,174,453	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-30	Samaha Eli	director	Sale	25,027 @ $17.13	$429K	−0.3% of holding	−0.2%	not yet — horizon still open	9,212,252	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-29	Samaha Eli	director	Sale	273,871 @ $17.23	$4.7M	−2.9% of holding	+0.3%	not yet — horizon still open	9,237,279	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Sale	6,657 @ $16.39	$109K	−2.8% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	232,457	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Sale	3,329 @ $16.39	$55K	−1.4% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	242,442	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Sale	3,328 @ $16.38	$55K	−1.4% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	239,114	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-16	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Sale	15,534 @ $14.00	$217K	−6.1% of holding	+14.5%	+8.5%	240,465	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-16	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Sale	7,767 @ $13.92	$108K	−2.9% of holding	+14.5%	+8.5%	255,999	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-16	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Sale	7,766 @ $13.92	$108K	−3.2% of holding	+14.5%	+8.5%	232,699	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-03	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Sale	15,534 @ $18.75	$291K	−5.3% of holding	−3.3%	−22.2%	277,695	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-03	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Sale	7,767 @ $18.75	$146K	−2.5% of holding	−3.3%	−22.2%	300,995	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-03	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Sale	7,766 @ $18.75	$146K	−2.6% of holding	−3.3%	−22.2%	293,229	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-26	BROSHY ERAN	director	Sale	15,501 @ $20.00	$310K	−25.7% of holding	−7.8%	−32.4%	44,703	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-26	BROSHY ERAN	director	Sale	14,000 @ $20.00	$280K	−18.9% of holding	−7.8%	−32.4%	60,204	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-11	BROSHY ERAN	director	Sale	29,500 @ $18.50	$546K	−32.3% of holding	−5.3%	−20.9%	61,704	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11	BROSHY ERAN	director	Sale	15,500 @ $17.00	$264K	−25.1% of holding	−5.3%	−20.9%	46,204	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11	BROSHY ERAN	director	Sale	14,000 @ $18.50	$259K	−23.3% of holding	−5.3%	−20.9%	46,204	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-14	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Sale	5,318 @ $11.39	$61K	−1.6% of holding	+1.1%	+59.4%	330,918	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-14	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Sale	4,000 @ $11.39	$46K	−1.2% of holding	+1.1%	+59.4%	326,918	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-14	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Sale	682 @ $11.39	$8K	−0.2% of holding	+1.1%	+59.4%	336,236	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Sale	24,000 @ $11.00	$264K	−6.6% of holding	−5.9%	+60.4%	336,918	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-21	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Sale	4,000 @ $9.00	$36K	−1.1% of holding	−11.9%	+25.4%	370,038	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-21	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Sale	4,000 @ $9.00	$36K	−1.3% of holding	+4.4%	+17.7%	309,565	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

78 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-20	Winningham Rick E	director	Withheld for tax	20,034	1,611,022	Form 4
2026-08-20	Sawaf Aziz	officer	Withheld for tax	8,112	336,841	Form 4
2026-08-20	Grimaud Brett A.	officer	Withheld for tax	7,952	355,168	Form 4
2026-08-20	Miller Aine	officer	Withheld for tax	6,258	189,826	Form 4
2026-08-20	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Withheld for tax	5,667	226,790	Form 4
2026-06-19	Miller Aine	officer	Award / grant	18,750	196,084	Form 4
2026-06-12	PAKIANATHAN DEEPIKA	director	Award / grant	6,009	64,074	Form 4
2026-06-12	GRAY SUSANNAH	director	Award / grant	6,009	48,146	Form 4
2026-06-12	GRAY SUSANNAH	director	Award / grant	13,398	13,398	Form 4
2026-06-12	MITCHELL DEAN J	director	Award / grant	6,009	97,213	Form 4
2026-06-12	MITCHELL DEAN J	director	Award / grant	13,398	13,398	Form 4
2026-06-12	O'Connor Donal	director	Award / grant	6,009	80,213	Form 4
2026-06-12	O'Connor Donal	director	Award / grant	13,398	13,398	Form 4
2026-06-12	PAKIANATHAN DEEPIKA	director	Award / grant	13,398	13,398	Form 4
2026-06-12	Smaldone Alsup Laurie	director	Award / grant	6,009	80,989	Form 4
2026-06-12	Smaldone Alsup Laurie	director	Award / grant	13,398	13,398	Form 4
2026-05-20	Winningham Rick E	director	Withheld for tax	20,038	1,631,056	Form 4
2026-05-20	Grimaud Brett A.	officer	Withheld for tax	8,829	363,120	Form 4
2026-05-20	Sawaf Aziz	officer	Withheld for tax	8,670	344,953	Form 4
2026-05-20	Miller Aine	officer	Withheld for tax	6,827	177,334	Form 4
2026-05-20	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Withheld for tax	5,678	245,771	Form 4
2026-04-01	Sawaf Aziz	officer	Award / grant	37,500	353,623	Form 4
2026-04-01	Grimaud Brett A.	officer	Award / grant	37,500	371,949	Form 4
2026-04-01	Winningham Rick E	director	Award / grant	75,000	1,651,094	Form 4
2026-04-01	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Award / grant	18,750	251,449	Form 4
2026-02-20	Winningham Rick E	director	Withheld for tax	74,975	1,576,094	Form 4
2026-02-20	Grimaud Brett A.	officer	Withheld for tax	20,833	334,449	Form 4
2026-02-20	Sawaf Aziz	officer	Withheld for tax	20,672	316,123	Form 4
2026-02-20	Miller Aine	officer	Withheld for tax	16,851	184,161	Form 4
2026-02-20	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Withheld for tax	13,929	263,766	Form 4
2025-11-26	BROSHY ERAN	director	Option exercise	14,000	81,749	Form 4
2025-11-20	Winningham Rick E	director	Withheld for tax	56,817	1,651,069	Form 4
2025-11-20	Grimaud Brett A.	officer	Withheld for tax	19,024	355,282	Form 4
2025-11-20	Sawaf Aziz	officer	Withheld for tax	18,627	336,795	Form 4
2025-11-20	Farnum Rhonda	officer	Withheld for tax	9,060	308,762	Form 4
2025-11-20	Miller Aine	officer	Withheld for tax	6,989	201,012	Form 4
2025-11-19	Winningham Rick E	director	Gift	9,900	1,707,886	Form 4
2025-11-19	Winningham Rick E	director	Gift	9,900	23,400	Form 4
2025-11-11	BROSHY ERAN	director	Option exercise	14,000	107,878	Form 4
2025-08-20	Winningham Rick E	director	Withheld for tax	15,394	1,717,786	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i