TBN · TickerCove

TBNTamboran Resources CorpEnergy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Productionas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $38.34 · now $38.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TBN has typically landed between $32.11 and $51.36 — a range of −16.3% to +34.0% from the issuance price $38.34.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

536 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-06-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($38.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$38.34 · 60% of range

$20.5 low$49.99 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.9%

typical move · IQR 17.0%

−16.3%worst (p90)+34.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where TBN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $38.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $38.34 (+0.0%)
typical $38.67 (+0.9%)
middle 50% $35.42–$41.93
90% range $32.11–$51.36

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 536 windows spanning 2024-06-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-03-31	−27.8%	−29.3%	+0.0%
2025-02-19	−23.5%	−26.2%	+0.0%
2025-10-08	−23.3%	−23.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2026-03-02	+55.2%	−10.9%	+55.2%
2024-12-20	+47.8%	+0.0%	+47.8%
2026-03-06	+46.3%	−7.5%	+61.3%

536 overlapping windows · 2024-06-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

100%

+12.1%

n=2

Feb

100%

+5.6%

n=2

Mar

50%

+26.3%

n=2

Apr

−21.5%

n=2

May

−4.6%

n=2

Jun

50%

+2.1%

n=2

Jul

67%

+0.7%

n=3

Aug

67%

+0.1%

n=3

Sep

100%

+12.2%

n=3

Oct

−8.6%

n=2

Nov

−5.6%

n=2

Dec

100%

+17.6%

n=2

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-04-13	PACE PHILLIP Z	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $36.99	$370K	+38.7% of holding	−11.0%	not yet — horizon still open	35,809	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-08	SHEFFIELD SCOTT D	director	Purchase	6,990 @ $36.02	$252K	+2.4% of holding	−8.9%	not yet — horizon still open	292,430	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-21	PACE PHILLIP Z	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $23.50	$47K	ownership Δ n/a	+6.4%	+31.8%	2,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-22	Sheffield Bryan	director	Purchase	563,697 @ $17.74	$10.0M	+22.0% of holding	+5.2%	+34.0%	3,123,601	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

82 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-01	STONEBURNER RICHARD K	director	Award / grant	2,975	107,704	Form 4
2026-06-01	Bellman Jeffrey Lance	director	Award / grant	2,975	23,234	Form 4
2026-06-01	Dalton Ryan	director	Award / grant	2,975	62,078	Form 4
2026-06-01	Elliott Patrick James Dymock	director	Award / grant	2,975	28,482	Form 4
2026-06-01	PACE PHILLIP Z	director	Award / grant	2,975	44,683	Form 4
2026-06-01	Robb Andrew John	director	Award / grant	2,975	14,295	Form 4
2026-06-01	SHEFFIELD SCOTT D	director	Award / grant	2,975	326,961	Form 4
2026-06-01	SIEGEL DAVID N	director	Award / grant	2,975	358,221	Form 4
2026-06-01	Barrett Fredrick J	director	Award / grant	2,975	40,498	Form 4
2026-05-28	Sheffield Bryan	director	Award / grant	339,500	3,646,756	Form 4
2026-05-28	Sheffield Bryan	director	Award / grant	339,500	3,646,756	Form 4
2026-05-28	Sheffield Bryan	director	Award / grant	339,500	3,646,756	Form 4
2026-05-28	Sheffield Bryan	director	Award / grant	339,500	3,646,756	Form 4
2026-05-28	Sheffield Bryan	director	Award / grant	339,500	3,646,756	Form 4
2026-05-28	Sheffield Bryan	director	Award / grant	339,500	3,646,756	Form 4
2026-05-28	Sheffield Bryan	director	Award / grant	339,500	3,646,756	Form 4
2026-05-26	Barrett Fredrick J	director	Award / grant	1,813	37,523	Form 4
2026-05-26	Bellman Jeffrey Lance	director	Award / grant	3,318	20,259	Form 4
2026-05-26	Dalton Ryan	director	Award / grant	3,933	59,103	Form 4
2026-05-26	Elliott Patrick James Dymock	director	Award / grant	1,813	25,507	Form 4
2026-05-26	PACE PHILLIP Z	director	Award / grant	3,318	41,708	Form 4
2026-05-26	Robb Andrew John	director	Award / grant	1,813	11,320	Form 4
2026-05-26	SHEFFIELD SCOTT D	director	Award / grant	3,011	323,986	Form 4
2026-05-26	SIEGEL DAVID N	director	Award / grant	3,625	355,246	Form 4
2026-05-26	STONEBURNER RICHARD K	director	Award / grant	5,407	104,729	Form 4
2026-04-15	STONEBURNER RICHARD K	director	Award / grant	8,403	99,322	Form 4
2026-04-15	PACE PHILLIP Z	director	Award / grant	2,581	38,390	Form 4
2026-04-14	Sheffield Bryan	director	Award / grant	50,000	3,307,256	Form 4
2026-04-14	SHEFFIELD SCOTT D	director	Award / grant	28,545	320,975	Form 4
2026-04-14	Thibodeaux Faron James	officer	Award / grant	7,143	153,311	Form 4
2026-04-14	Barrett Fredrick J	director	Award / grant	5,714	35,710	Form 4
2026-04-14	SIEGEL DAVID N	director	Award / grant	5,000	351,621	Form 4
2026-04-14	Dalton Ryan	director	Award / grant	4,632	55,170	Form 4
2026-04-14	SIEGEL DAVID N	director	Award / grant	2,500	122,500	Form 4
2026-04-14	Dyer Eric Steven	officer	Award / grant	1,829	68,909	Form 4
2026-04-14	Bellman Jeffrey Lance	director	Award / grant	1,541	16,941	Form 4
2026-02-04	SIEGEL DAVID N	director	Gift	7,000	120,000	Form 4
2026-01-20	SIEGEL DAVID N	director	Gift	100,000	113,000	Form 4
2026-01-16	SHEFFIELD SCOTT D	director	Award / grant	181,274	285,440	Form 4
2026-01-16	Sheffield Bryan	director	Award / grant	133,655	3,257,256	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i