Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.81 · now $3.81 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TBLA has typically landed between $2.84 and $4.76 — a range of −25.6% to +25.0% from the issuance price $3.81.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,288 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-06-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.81) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TBLA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.81 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.81 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.79 (-0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.42–$4.17
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.84–$4.76
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,288 windows spanning 2021-06-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-02-10 | −40.3% | −40.3% | +0.0% |
| 2023-02-23 | −37.5% | −37.5% | +0.0% |
| 2023-02-15 | −36.5% | −36.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-11-02 | +68.8% | −5.9% | +72.9% |
| 2022-11-03 | +65.4% | −1.2% | +81.5% |
| 2022-11-08 | +62.5% | +0.0% | +83.7% |
1,288 overlapping windows · 2021-06-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+1.4%
n=5
Feb
20%
−13.8%
n=5
Mar
40%
−5.5%
n=5
Apr
20%
−3.1%
n=5
May
60%
+8.8%
n=5
Jun
40%
−4.2%
n=5
Jul
67%
+0.5%
n=6
Aug
50%
−4.8%
n=6
Sep
50%
−5.4%
n=6
Oct
40%
+1.7%
n=5
Nov
60%
+11.4%
n=5
Dec
80%
+10.2%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | other | Sale | 12,000,000 @ $4.40 | $52.8M | −39.9% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,039,644 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | other | Sale | 12,000,000 @ $4.40 | $52.8M | −39.9% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,039,644 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Mijaleski Monica | director | Sale | 61,000 @ $5.04 | $307K | −33.4% of holding | −10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,554 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Sundjaja Kristy | officer | Sale | 40,878 @ $5.00 | $204K | −2.6% of holding | −14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,541,358 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Peres Nechemia Jacob | director | Sale | 5,541,515 @ $3.67 | $20.3M | −100.0% of holding | +6.2% | +25.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Peres Nechemia Jacob | director | Sale | 713,899 @ $3.67 | $2.6M | −100.0% of holding | +6.2% | +25.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Peres Nechemia Jacob | director | Sale | 132,234 @ $3.67 | $485K | −100.0% of holding | +6.2% | +25.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Maniv Eldad | officer | Sale | 414,816 @ $3.78 | $1.6M | −3.8% of holding | +5.4% | +25.2% | 10,392,460 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Maniv Eldad | officer | Sale | 10,045 @ $3.75 | $38K | −0.1% of holding | +5.3% | +32.0% | 10,807,276 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 27,000 @ $3.38 | $91K | −11.0% of holding | +1.0% | −12.1% | 218,827 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Maniv Eldad | officer | Sale | 2,100 @ $3.76 | $8K | −0.0% of holding | −2.6% | −0.3% | 10,817,321 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | Maniv Eldad | officer | Sale | 20,083 @ $3.75 | $75K | −0.2% of holding | −9.1% | −6.9% | 10,872,377 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | LIMON ZVI | director | Purchase | 250,000 @ $2.83 | $708K | +7.9% of holding | +10.4% | +8.5% | 3,405,889 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | LIMON ZVI | director | Purchase | 168,506 @ $2.79 | $470K | +5.6% of holding | +13.6% | +13.1% | 3,155,889 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Singolda Adam | director | Purchase | 123,771 @ $2.70 | $334K | +0.9% of holding | +13.6% | +13.1% | 14,586,714 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Singolda Adam | director | Purchase | 60,229 @ $2.72 | $164K | +0.4% of holding | +13.6% | +13.1% | 14,462,943 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-28 | Maniv Eldad | officer | Sale | 47,073 @ $2.82 | $133K | −0.4% of holding | +13.6% | +13.1% | 10,892,460 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | LIMON ZVI | director | Purchase | 168,506 @ $2.93 | $494K | +6.0% of holding | +9.7% | +7.2% | 2,987,383 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Maniv Eldad | officer | Sale | 41,475 @ $4.17 | $173K | −0.4% of holding | −14.5% | −16.3% | 9,593,009 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Maniv Eldad | officer | Sale | 71,691 @ $4.07 | $292K | −0.7% of holding | −11.2% | −14.4% | 9,634,484 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Maniv Eldad | officer | Sale | 63,896 @ $4.09 | $261K | −0.7% of holding | −8.0% | −11.7% | 9,706,175 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | Maniv Eldad | officer | Sale | 14,633 @ $4.05 | $59K | −0.1% of holding | −7.0% | −11.0% | 9,770,071 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | Maniv Eldad | officer | Sale | 8,305 @ $4.05 | $34K | −0.1% of holding | −2.9% | −8.2% | 9,784,704 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-03 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | other | Sale | 988,296 @ $4.32 | $4.3M | −2.2% of holding | −15.6% | −18.7% | 44,210,406 | Form 4 · filed 275 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-03 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | other | Sale | 988,296 @ $4.32 | $4.3M | −2.2% of holding | −15.6% | −18.7% | 44,210,406 | Form 4 · filed 275 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
127 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Sundjaja Kristy | officer | Gift | 3,000 | 1,433,789 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Singolda Adam | director | Withheld for tax | 251,129 | 17,458,112 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Walker Stephen C | officer | Withheld for tax | 113,073 | 3,047,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Sundjaja Kristy | officer | Withheld for tax | 50,415 | 1,436,789 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Sundjaja Kristy | officer | Gift | 3,738 | 1,487,204 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Shachar Erez | director | Award / grant | 38,046 | 256,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | LIMON ZVI | director | Award / grant | 38,046 | 283,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Mijaleski Monica | director | Award / grant | 38,046 | 159,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Peres Nechemia Jacob | director | Award / grant | 38,046 | 283,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Shany Gilad | director | Award / grant | 38,046 | 301,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Singolda Adam | director | Withheld for tax | 251,130 | 17,709,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Walker Stephen C | officer | Withheld for tax | 113,071 | 3,160,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Sundjaja Kristy | officer | Withheld for tax | 50,416 | 1,490,942 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Walker Stephen C | officer | Withheld for tax | 132,590 | 3,273,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Walker Stephen C | officer | Option exercise | 170,070 | 3,406,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Walker Stephen C | officer | Option exercise | 170,070 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Singolda Adam | director | Award / grant | 2,324,906 | 17,960,371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Maniv Eldad | officer | Award / grant | 1,540,250 | 11,932,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Walker Stephen C | officer | Award / grant | 1,089,799 | 3,236,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Sundjaja Kristy | officer | Award / grant | 581,226 | 1,582,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Singolda Adam | director | Withheld for tax | 169,758 | 15,635,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Walker Stephen C | officer | Withheld for tax | 90,373 | 2,146,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Sundjaja Kristy | officer | Withheld for tax | 40,879 | 1,001,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Singolda Adam | director | Withheld for tax | 50,304 | 15,805,223 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-16 | Singolda Adam | director | Withheld for tax | 169,757 | 15,855,527 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-16 | Walker Stephen C | officer | Withheld for tax | 82,155 | 2,236,599 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-16 | Sundjaja Kristy | officer | Withheld for tax | 40,881 | 1,041,889 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-14 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | other | Other acquisition | 184,291 | 30,039,644 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-14 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | other | Other acquisition | 184,291 | 30,039,644 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-06 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | other | Other acquisition | 177,198 | 30,223,935 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-06 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | other | Other acquisition | 177,198 | 30,223,935 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Singolda Adam | director | Withheld for tax | 50,304 | 16,025,284 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | other | Other acquisition | 158,456 | 30,401,133 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | other | Other acquisition | 158,456 | 30,401,133 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-22 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | other | Other acquisition | 201,646 | 30,559,589 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-22 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | other | Other acquisition | 201,646 | 30,559,589 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | other | Other acquisition | 180,171 | 30,761,235 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | other | Other acquisition | 180,171 | 30,761,235 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-08 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | other | Other acquisition | 193,776 | 30,941,406 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-08 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | other | Other acquisition | 193,776 | 30,941,406 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.