Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.58 · now $12.58 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TBCH has typically landed between $9.66 and $15.46 — a range of −23.2% to +22.9% from the issuance price $12.58.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,989 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-10-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.58) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TBCH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.58 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.58 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.42 (-1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.31–$13.54
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.66–$15.46
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2012-09-12 | −53.1% | −54.6% | +1.9% |
| 2015-12-31 | −52.7% | −52.7% | +0.0% |
| 2012-09-11 | −52.5% | −52.5% | +6.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2018-04-11 | +413.8% | −1.0% | +413.8% |
| 2018-04-12 | +390.3% | +0.0% | +418.8% |
| 2018-04-13 | +355.8% | +0.0% | +355.8% |
3,989 overlapping windows · 2010-10-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | DC VGA LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,671 @ $13.00 | $74K | −0.3% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,775,441 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-11 | DC VGA LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 140,000 @ $12.67 | $1.8M | −7.3% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,781,112 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | DC VGA LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 140,000 @ $12.70 | $1.8M | −6.8% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,921,112 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Scherping Katherine Lee | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $13.25 | $27K | −8.2% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,254 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-27 | Scherping Katherine Lee | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $13.20 | $66K | −17.1% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,254 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Scherping Katherine Lee | director | Sale | 1,845 @ $12.82 | $24K | −5.9% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,254 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Scherping Katherine Lee | director | Sale | 19,902 @ $11.62 | $231K | −57.9% of holding | −9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,465 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Scherping Katherine Lee | director | Sale | 98 @ $11.50 | $1K | −0.3% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,367 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | DC VGA LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 694,926 @ $14.41 | $10.0M | −25.2% of holding | −4.8% | −32.0% | 2,061,112 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | DC VGA LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 693,962 @ $14.41 | $10.0M | −20.1% of holding | −4.8% | −32.0% | 2,756,038 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Wyatt William Z | director | Purchase | 693,962 @ $14.41 | $10.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −6.1% | −31.7% | 693,962 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
131 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | WEINSWIG MARK | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,404 | 20,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | WEINSWIG MARK | officer | Option exercise | 6,688 | 73,574 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | WEINSWIG MARK | officer | Option exercise | 6,688 | 23,045 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | WEINSWIG MARK | officer | Option exercise | 6,688 | 23,045 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Wynne Megan S. | officer | Award / grant | 4,395 | 4,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Keirn Cris | director | Award / grant | 12,928 | 12,928 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Wynne Megan S. | officer | Option exercise | 1,450 | 2,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Keirn Cris | director | Option exercise | 4,266 | 8,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Keirn Cris | director | Option exercise | 4,266 | 80,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Keirn Cris | director | Option exercise | 4,266 | 80,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Kelley Daniela | director | Award / grant | 13,880 | 13,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Haspel Lee | director | Award / grant | 13,880 | 13,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Wynne Megan S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,997 | 71,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Keirn Cris | director | Withheld for tax | 19,812 | 76,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Keirn Cris | director | Withheld for tax | 2,173 | 78,656 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wynne Megan S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 738 | 72,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wolfe Andrew | director | Award / grant | 16,634 | 117,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | WEINSWIG MARK | officer | Award / grant | 7,338 | 7,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wynne Megan S. | officer | Option exercise | 3,478 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wynne Megan S. | officer | Option exercise | 1,845 | 1,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wynne Megan S. | officer | Option exercise | 4,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wynne Megan S. | officer | Option exercise | 6,125 | 6,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wynne Megan S. | officer | Option exercise | 1,747 | 3,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wynne Megan S. | officer | Option exercise | 2,905 | 8,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | SZE JULIA | director | Award / grant | 16,634 | 53,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Scherping Katherine Lee | director | Award / grant | 16,634 | 31,099 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Bush Elizabeth Berlacher | director | Award / grant | 16,634 | 33,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Keirn Cris | director | Option exercise | 6,920 | 7,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Keirn Cris | director | Option exercise | 5,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wynne Megan S. | officer | Award / grant | 22,015 | 22,015 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Keirn Cris | director | Option exercise | 3,974 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Keirn Cris | director | Option exercise | 7,000 | 7,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Keirn Cris | director | Option exercise | 6,552 | 13,104 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Keirn Cris | director | Option exercise | 8,544 | 25,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Keirn Cris | director | Award / grant | 61,154 | 61,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wyatt William Z | director | Award / grant | 16,634 | 128,170 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Keirn Cris | director | Option exercise | 8,544 | 96,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wynne Megan S. | officer | Option exercise | 1,450 | 72,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wynne Megan S. | officer | Option exercise | 1,450 | 72,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Keirn Cris | director | Option exercise | 6,920 | 69,029 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.