Issued 2026-08-13 at $70.02 · now $68.88 (2026-08-13, −1.6% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, TARS has typically landed between $55.18 and $92.07 — a range of −21.2% to +31.5% from the issuance price $70.02.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,441 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-10-16 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($70.02) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TARS has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $70.02 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $68.88 (-1.6%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $70.41 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $63.14–$77.68
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $55.18–$92.07
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-07 | −38.0% | −38.9% | +5.2% |
| 2022-04-06 | −37.8% | −37.8% | +7.1% |
| 2021-12-21 | −35.3% | −35.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-11-18 | +128.6% | −8.3% | +128.6% |
| 2020-11-24 | +111.4% | −4.4% | +138.3% |
| 2020-11-23 | +109.7% | −8.6% | +127.9% |
1,441 overlapping windows · 2020-10-16 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2026-12-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Study of Lotilaner Ophthalmic Gel in Patients With Ocular Rosacea (KORE) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- October 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of TP-05 in Healthy Participants With Tick Exposure (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.