Issued 2026-09-25 at $75.69 · now $75.69 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, TARS has typically landed between $59.66 and $99.66 — a range of −21.2% to +31.7% from the issuance price $75.69.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,471 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-10-16 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($75.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TARS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $75.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $75.69 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $76.75 (+1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $68.78–$84.73
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $59.66–$99.66
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,471 windows spanning 2020-10-16 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-07 | −38.0% | −38.9% | +5.2% |
| 2022-04-06 | −37.8% | −37.8% | +7.1% |
| 2021-12-21 | −35.3% | −35.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-11-18 | +128.6% | −8.3% | +128.6% |
| 2020-11-24 | +111.4% | −4.4% | +138.3% |
| 2020-11-23 | +109.7% | −8.6% | +127.9% |
1,471 overlapping windows · 2020-10-16 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2026-12-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Study of Lotilaner Ophthalmic Gel in Patients With Ocular Rosacea (KORE) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- October 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of TP-05 in Healthy Participants With Tick Exposure (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−0.3%
n=6
Feb
33%
+3.7%
n=6
Mar
17%
−5.2%
n=6
Apr
50%
+0.2%
n=6
May
50%
−3.9%
n=6
Jun
50%
−2.7%
n=6
Jul
33%
−3.1%
n=6
Aug
83%
+14.6%
n=6
Sep
83%
+3.1%
n=6
Oct
80%
+13.5%
n=5
Nov
67%
+9.3%
n=6
Dec
67%
+12.2%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Sale | 11,675 @ $78.33 | $915K | −10.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 95,312 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Sale | 759 @ $79.00 | $60K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 94,553 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Sale | 66 @ $80.01 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 94,487 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Azamian Bobak R. | director | Sale | 7,100 @ $90.27 | $641K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 830,891 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Lin Elizabeth Yeu | director | Sale | 5,386 @ $90.00 | $485K | −67.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,547 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Lin Elizabeth Yeu | director | Sale | 5,387 @ $85.00 | $458K | −40.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,933 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Neervannan Seshadri | officer | Sale | 4,564 @ $85.00 | $388K | −5.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 78,532 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Azamian Bobak R. | director | Sale | 2,900 @ $91.27 | $265K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 827,991 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Lin Elizabeth Yeu | director | Sale | 1,590 @ $90.00 | $143K | −50.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,590 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Lin Elizabeth Yeu | director | Sale | 1,590 @ $85.00 | $135K | −33.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,180 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Azamian Bobak R. | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $80.06 | $801K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 837,991 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Lin Elizabeth Yeu | director | Sale | 5,387 @ $80.00 | $431K | −28.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,320 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Lin Elizabeth Yeu | director | Sale | 1,590 @ $80.00 | $127K | −25.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,770 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Lin Elizabeth Yeu | director | Sale | 4,601 @ $73.86 | $340K | −19.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,707 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Azamian Bobak R. | director | Sale | 5,418 @ $61.81 | $335K | −0.6% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 847,991 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Azamian Bobak R. | director | Sale | 4,582 @ $61.24 | $281K | −0.5% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 853,409 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Farrow Jeffrey S | director | Sale | 14,396 @ $60.95 | $877K | −20.2% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,801 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Sale | 10,572 @ $61.97 | $655K | −8.9% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 108,714 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Goodrich Katherine | director | Sale | 2,954 @ $62.08 | $183K | −57.0% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,233 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Sale | 1,928 @ $62.94 | $121K | −1.8% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,786 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Neervannan Seshadri | officer | Sale | 2,989 @ $66.75 | $200K | −3.5% of holding | −8.6% | +0.5% | 82,791 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Azamian Bobak R. | director | Sale | 11,964 @ $67.00 | $802K | −26.4% of holding | −8.9% | +0.9% | 33,421 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Neervannan Seshadri | officer | Sale | 4,589 @ $67.00 | $307K | −5.1% of holding | −8.9% | +0.9% | 85,780 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Mottiwala Aziz | director | Sale | 4,440 @ $67.00 | $297K | −6.7% of holding | −8.9% | +0.9% | 61,480 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Wahl Bryan | officer | Sale | 4,231 @ $67.00 | $283K | −6.2% of holding | −8.9% | +0.9% | 63,959 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Whitfield Dianne C. | officer | Sale | 4,174 @ $67.00 | $280K | −10.6% of holding | −8.9% | +0.9% | 35,028 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Farrow Jeffrey S | director | Sale | 2,186 @ $67.00 | $146K | −4.8% of holding | −8.9% | +0.9% | 43,316 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Lin Elizabeth Yeu | director | Sale | 390 @ $67.00 | $26K | −1.6% of holding | −8.9% | +0.9% | 23,308 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-18 | Azamian Bobak R. | director | Sale | 11,667 @ $68.71 | $802K | −20.4% of holding | −9.1% | +0.2% | 45,385 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Mottiwala Aziz | director | Sale | 4,330 @ $68.71 | $298K | −6.2% of holding | −9.1% | +0.2% | 65,920 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Wahl Bryan | officer | Sale | 4,125 @ $68.71 | $283K | −5.7% of holding | −9.1% | +0.2% | 68,190 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Whitfield Dianne C. | officer | Sale | 4,071 @ $68.71 | $280K | −9.4% of holding | −9.1% | +0.2% | 39,202 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Neervannan Seshadri | officer | Sale | 3,610 @ $68.71 | $248K | −3.8% of holding | −9.1% | +0.2% | 90,369 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Farrow Jeffrey S | director | Sale | 2,133 @ $68.71 | $147K | −4.5% of holding | −9.1% | +0.2% | 45,502 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Lin Elizabeth Yeu | director | Sale | 379 @ $68.71 | $26K | −1.6% of holding | −9.1% | +0.2% | 23,698 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Azamian Bobak R. | director | Sale | 10,972 @ $69.42 | $762K | −16.1% of holding | −7.9% | −1.5% | 57,052 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Mottiwala Aziz | director | Sale | 4,286 @ $69.42 | $298K | −5.8% of holding | −7.9% | −1.5% | 70,250 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Wahl Bryan | officer | Sale | 4,084 @ $69.42 | $284K | −5.3% of holding | −7.9% | −1.5% | 72,315 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Whitfield Dianne C. | officer | Sale | 4,029 @ $69.42 | $280K | −8.5% of holding | −7.9% | −1.5% | 43,273 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Neervannan Seshadri | officer | Sale | 3,125 @ $69.42 | $217K | −3.2% of holding | −7.9% | −1.5% | 93,979 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Farrow Jeffrey S | director | Sale | 2,111 @ $69.42 | $147K | −4.2% of holding | −7.9% | −1.5% | 47,635 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Lin Elizabeth Yeu | director | Sale | 375 @ $69.42 | $26K | −1.5% of holding | −7.9% | −1.5% | 24,077 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Sale | 8,378 @ $69.03 | $578K | −6.7% of holding | −0.7% | +0.0% | 116,825 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Sale | 3,629 @ $68.09 | $247K | −2.8% of holding | −0.7% | +0.0% | 125,203 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Sale | 493 @ $69.75 | $34K | −0.4% of holding | −0.7% | +0.0% | 116,332 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Neervannan Seshadri | officer | Sale | 8,366 @ $76.67 | $641K | −10.6% of holding | −4.0% | −3.7% | 70,817 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Whitfield Dianne C. | officer | Sale | 8,122 @ $80.71 | $656K | −24.4% of holding | −18.2% | −22.7% | 25,121 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Whitfield Dianne C. | officer | Sale | 5,715 @ $80.09 | $458K | −14.7% of holding | −18.2% | −22.7% | 33,243 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Whitfield Dianne C. | officer | Sale | 893 @ $82.93 | $74K | −3.7% of holding | −18.2% | −22.7% | 23,393 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Whitfield Dianne C. | officer | Sale | 835 @ $81.90 | $68K | −3.3% of holding | −18.2% | −22.7% | 24,286 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-24 | Azamian Bobak R. | director | Sale | 5,443 @ $82.41 | $449K | −0.6% of holding | −18.1% | −33.7% | 858,548 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-24 | Azamian Bobak R. | director | Sale | 557 @ $83.54 | $47K | −0.1% of holding | −18.1% | −33.7% | 857,991 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Whitfield Dianne C. | officer | Sale | 7,397 @ $80.10 | $592K | −16.0% of holding | −11.3% | −30.2% | 38,958 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Lin Elizabeth Yeu | director | Sale | 2,078 @ $79.50 | $165K | −8.7% of holding | −11.3% | −30.2% | 21,941 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Sale | 6,306 @ $81.75 | $516K | −4.6% of holding | −10.5% | −31.7% | 129,980 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Sale | 5,680 @ $80.71 | $458K | −54.4% of holding | −10.5% | −31.7% | 4,766 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Sale | 5,046 @ $80.80 | $408K | −3.6% of holding | −10.5% | −31.7% | 136,286 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Sale | 4,766 @ $81.50 | $388K | −100.0% of holding | −10.5% | −31.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Sale | 1,148 @ $82.39 | $95K | −0.9% of holding | −10.5% | −31.7% | 128,832 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | Azamian Bobak R. | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $55.37 | $332K | −0.7% of holding | +22.0% | +23.5% | 812,106 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
214 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Option exercise | 201 | 605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | YARNO WENDY L | director | Option exercise | 302 | 907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | PYOTT DAVID E I | director | Option exercise | 201 | 605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | PYOTT DAVID E I | director | Option exercise | 201 | 9,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Option exercise | 201 | 106,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | YARNO WENDY L | director | Option exercise | 302 | 16,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | PYOTT DAVID E I | director | Option exercise | 201 | 9,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Option exercise | 201 | 106,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | PYOTT DAVID E I | director | Option exercise | 201 | 9,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Option exercise | 201 | 106,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | YARNO WENDY L | director | Option exercise | 302 | 16,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | YARNO WENDY L | director | Option exercise | 302 | 16,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Option exercise | 201 | 106,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | PYOTT DAVID E I | director | Option exercise | 201 | 9,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | YARNO WENDY L | director | Option exercise | 302 | 16,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Morrison Scott W | director | Award / grant | 3,837 | 3,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Goodrich Katherine | director | Award / grant | 3,837 | 3,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Goodrich Katherine | director | Award / grant | 2,417 | 2,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Award / grant | 806 | 806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Award / grant | 2,417 | 2,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Morrison Scott W | director | Award / grant | 2,417 | 2,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | CHAUDHURI BHASKAR | director | Award / grant | 3,837 | 3,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | YARNO WENDY L | director | Award / grant | 1,209 | 1,209 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | YARNO WENDY L | director | Award / grant | 2,417 | 2,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Goldberg Andrew D. | director | Award / grant | 2,417 | 2,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Goldberg Andrew D. | director | Award / grant | 3,837 | 3,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | YARNO WENDY L | director | Award / grant | 3,837 | 3,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | PYOTT DAVID E I | director | Award / grant | 806 | 806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | CHAUDHURI BHASKAR | director | Award / grant | 2,417 | 2,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | PYOTT DAVID E I | director | Award / grant | 2,417 | 2,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | PYOTT DAVID E I | director | Award / grant | 3,837 | 3,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | LINK WILLIAM J PHD | director | Award / grant | 3,837 | 3,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Farrow Jeffrey S | director | Option exercise | 27,881 | 27,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Farrow Jeffrey S | director | Option exercise | 27,881 | 71,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Farrow Jeffrey S | director | Option exercise | 27,881 | 71,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | CHAUDHURI BHASKAR | director | Option exercise | 2,954 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Goodrich Katherine | director | Option exercise | 2,954 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Goldberg Andrew D. | director | Option exercise | 2,954 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | YARNO WENDY L | director | Option exercise | 2,954 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Morrison Scott W | director | Option exercise | 2,954 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.