Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.62 · now $3.62 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TARA has typically landed between $2.69 and $5.08 — a range of −25.8% to +40.4% from the issuance price $3.62.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,968 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-10-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TARA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.62 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.49 (-3.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.08–$3.89
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.69–$5.08
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2019-03-26 | −88.8% | −88.8% | +0.0% |
| 2019-03-27 | −88.1% | −88.1% | +0.0% |
| 2019-03-25 | −87.7% | −87.7% | +9.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2019-12-20 | +226.8% | +0.0% | +226.8% |
| 2019-12-24 | +200.2% | +0.0% | +216.6% |
| 2019-12-19 | +193.2% | −3.4% | +193.2% |
2,968 overlapping windows · 2014-10-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Shefferman Jesse | director | Sale | 215,687 @ $4.09 | $882K | −23.0% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 721,832 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Zummo Jacqueline | officer | Sale | 1,134 @ $5.40 | $6K | −1.2% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 94,827 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Zummo Jacqueline | officer | Sale | 22,598 @ $5.26 | $119K | −19.1% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,961 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Levy Richard S | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $3.19 | $64K | +64.5% of holding | −1.3% | +52.4% | 51,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Zummo Jacqueline | officer | Sale | 21,224 @ $4.53 | $96K | −17.7% of holding | −1.5% | −21.7% | 98,861 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
67 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Shefferman Jesse | director | Gift | 7,000 | 700,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Shefferman Jesse | director | Gift | 4,000 | 696,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Shefferman Jesse | director | Gift | 14,000 | 707,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Shefferman Jesse | director | Gift | 5,000 | 691,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Shefferman Jesse | director | Option exercise | 215,687 | 937,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Shefferman Jesse | director | Option exercise | 215,687 | 141,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Solomon Michael Edward | director | Award / grant | 31,000 | 31,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Levy Richard S | director | Award / grant | 31,000 | 31,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | BESHAR LUKE M | director | Award / grant | 31,000 | 31,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Flannelly Barry P | director | Award / grant | 31,000 | 31,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | GARCEAU ROGER | director | Award / grant | 31,000 | 31,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Huang Jane | director | Award / grant | 31,000 | 31,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | SARGEN GREGORY | director | Award / grant | 31,000 | 31,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Smith Cynthia | director | Award / grant | 31,000 | 31,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | CONKLING WILLIAM | director | Withheld for tax | 6,008 | 69,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Shefferman Jesse | director | Withheld for tax | 8,732 | 1,021,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Zummo Jacqueline | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,724 | 118,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Fabbio Patrick | director | Withheld for tax | 3,261 | 64,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Fry Hannah | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,457 | 42,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Shefferman Jesse | director | Withheld for tax | 16,322 | 1,030,564 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Zummo Jacqueline | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,578 | 122,283 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Fabbio Patrick | director | Withheld for tax | 3,063 | 67,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Fry Hannah | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,132 | 44,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Shefferman Jesse | director | Award / grant | 87,000 | 1,046,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Nicacio Leonardo Viana | officer | Award / grant | 158,000 | 158,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Zummo Jacqueline | officer | Award / grant | 30,000 | 128,861 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Zummo Jacqueline | officer | Award / grant | 180,000 | 180,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Fabbio Patrick | director | Award / grant | 175,000 | 175,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Fabbio Patrick | director | Award / grant | 28,000 | 70,439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | CONKLING WILLIAM | director | Award / grant | 158,000 | 158,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | CONKLING WILLIAM | director | Award / grant | 26,000 | 76,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Fry Hannah | officer | Award / grant | 55,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Shefferman Jesse | director | Award / grant | 524,000 | 524,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Nicacio Leonardo Viana | officer | Award / grant | 26,000 | 78,181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Fry Hannah | officer | Award / grant | 9,500 | 46,312 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-27 | Shefferman Jesse | director | Gift | 3,367 | 959,886 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-27 | Shefferman Jesse | director | Gift | 10,200 | 963,253 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-26 | Shefferman Jesse | director | Gift | 3,400 | 973,453 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-26 | Shefferman Jesse | director | Gift | 1,700 | 976,853 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Shefferman Jesse | director | Gift | 300,000 | 659,886 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.