TAPMolson Coors Beverage CompanyConsumer Defensive · Beverages - Alcoholicas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $39.11 · now $39.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TAP has typically landed between $35.21 and $43.23 — a range of −10.0% to +10.5% from the issuance price $39.11.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($39.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TAP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $39.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$35.21worst · -10.0%$43.23best · +10.5%
  • now $39.11 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $39.31 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $37.58–$41.04
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $35.21–$43.23
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−36.8%−36.8%+0.0%
2020-02-11−33.1%−33.1%+0.0%
2020-02-20−32.6%−32.6%+0.0%
3 best
2020-10-28+42.2%+0.0%+42.9%
2020-10-29+37.8%+0.0%+40.9%
2020-10-27+37.5%−2.7%+39.1%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$7.7B
market cap
$-10.64
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$11.1B
'20'25
Net income−$2.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr-19.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-20.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.62
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $39.11$37.60$59.51
  • DCF (intrinsic)$41.69
  • Analyst target · range $40.00–$58.00$43.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$39.11

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.2%
n=18
Feb
53%
+0.1%
n=19
Mar
47%
+0.8%
n=19
Apr
68%
+1.8%
n=19
May
42%
−1.4%
n=19
Jun
37%
−1.1%
n=19
Jul
74%
+2.1%
n=19
Aug
47%
−1.3%
n=19
Sep
53%
+0.2%
n=19
Oct
44%
−1.5%
n=18
Nov
61%
+4.2%
n=18
Dec
56%
+1.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$53$382026-05-21: 1 insider sale, $53K — Molson Geoffrey E.2026-03-09: 1 insider purchase, $93K — Molson Andrew Thomas2026-02-20: 1 insider purchase, $5K — Winnefeld James A Jr2025-11-26: 1 insider purchase, $2K — Cocks Christian P2025-11-10: 1 insider purchase, $351K — Molson Andrew Thomas2025-11-05: 1 insider purchase, $100K — Coors David S.2025-11: 3 open-market purchases, $453K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $5K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $93K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $53K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Molson Geoffrey E. — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Molson Andrew Thomas — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Winnefeld James A Jr — Purchase on 2026-02-20, filed same daydirector Cocks Christian P — Purchase on 2025-11-26, filed 72 days after the tradedirector Molson Andrew Thomas — Purchase on 2025-11-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Coors David S. — Purchase on 2025-11-05, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-21Molson Geoffrey E.directorSale1,245 @ $42.50$53K−11.2% of holding−4.5%not yet — horizon still open9,871Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-09Molson Andrew ThomasdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $46.67$93K+8.8% of holding−4.5%−28.1%24,654Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20Winnefeld James A JrdirectorPurchase100 @ $49.01$5K+0.5% of holding−10.3%−23.6%22,288Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-26Cocks Christian PdirectorPurchase45 @ $47.19$2K+1.0% of holding−0.5%−25.7%4,634Form 4 · filed 72 days after the trade
2025-11-10Molson Andrew ThomasdirectorPurchase7,500 @ $46.79$351K+49.5% of holding+0.2%−19.3%22,654Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-05Coors David S.directorPurchase2,245 @ $44.47$100K+7.9% of holding−0.3%−13.6%30,586Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-21Molson Geoffrey E.directorSale1,333 @ $56.29$75K−4.6% of holding−16.1%−31.5%27,595Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-09Winnefeld James A JrdirectorPurchase200 @ $54.00$11K+1.1% of holding−10.4%−33.2%19,166Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-13Whitehead Philip MofficerSale3,491 @ $59.61$208K−26.6% of holding+6.2%−36.0%9,653Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

127 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30HERINGTON CHARLES MdirectorAward / grant36965,930Form 4
2026-06-30Cocks Christian PdirectorAward / grant73810,016Form 4
2026-05-18Molson Andrew ThomasdirectorWithheld for tax1,42227,208Form 4
2026-05-18Molson Geoffrey E.directorWithheld for tax1,42211,116Form 4
2026-05-18Riley H SanforddirectorWithheld for tax1,34548,697Form 4
2026-05-18Eaton Roger G.directorWithheld for tax61055,277Form 4
2026-05-18O'Sullivan NessadirectorWithheld for tax61027,017Form 4
2026-05-06Winnefeld James A JrdirectorAward / grant3,97626,264Form 4
2026-05-06Molson Andrew ThomasdirectorAward / grant3,97628,630Form 4
2026-05-06FergusonMchugh MaryLynndirectorAward / grant3,97632,712Form 4
2026-05-06HERINGTON CHARLES MdirectorAward / grant3,97665,561Form 4
2026-05-06Riley H SanforddirectorAward / grant3,97650,042Form 4
2026-05-06Cocks Christian PdirectorAward / grant3,9769,278Form 4
2026-05-06Timm JilldirectorAward / grant3,97610,968Form 4
2026-05-06O'Sullivan NessadirectorAward / grant3,97627,627Form 4
2026-05-06Williams Leroy James JrdirectorAward / grant3,97615,394Form 4
2026-05-06Molson Geoffrey E.directorAward / grant3,97612,538Form 4
2026-05-06Coors David S.directorAward / grant3,97648,048Form 4
2026-05-06Coors Peter JosephdirectorAward / grant3,97632,359Form 4
2026-05-06Eaton Roger G.directorAward / grant3,97655,887Form 4
2026-04-14Joubert TraceydirectorWithheld for tax11,728179,868Form 4
2026-04-01Stelter RoxanneofficerAward / grant1,04916,188Form 4
2026-04-01Coors Peter JosephdirectorAward / grant58328,383Form 4
2026-03-31Cocks Christian PdirectorAward / grant6685,302Form 4
2026-03-31HERINGTON CHARLES MdirectorAward / grant33461,585Form 4
2026-03-10Coors Peter JosephdirectorGift10,91727,800Form 4
2026-03-10Coors David S.directorGift10,91744,072Form 4
2026-03-04Joubert TraceydirectorAward / grant63,22563,225Form 4
2026-03-04Joubert TraceydirectorAward / grant12,677191,596Form 4
2026-03-04Goyal RahuldirectorAward / grant184,405184,405Form 4
2026-03-04Goyal RahuldirectorAward / grant36,975105,365Form 4
2026-03-04Vohs DarrinofficerAward / grant15,80715,807Form 4
2026-03-04Coors David S.directorAward / grant2,11333,155Form 4
2026-03-04Coors Peter JosephdirectorAward / grant2,6352,635Form 4
2026-03-04Coors Peter JosephdirectorAward / grant1,58516,883Form 4
2026-03-04Maciolek Natalie G.officerAward / grant47,41947,419Form 4
2026-03-04Maciolek Natalie G.officerAward / grant9,50842,676Form 4
2026-03-04Whitehead Philip MofficerAward / grant39,51639,516Form 4
2026-03-04Whitehead Philip MofficerAward / grant7,92426,199Form 4
2026-03-04Vohs DarrinofficerAward / grant3,17013,683Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-04-072026-03-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-18$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2025-10-102025-09-05$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-10-072025-09-25$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-09-122025-08-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-03-062025-02-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-08-072024-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-06-052024-05-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-06-052024-05-29$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.