TALO · TickerCove

TALOTalos Energy Inc.Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Productionas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.42 · now $17.42 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TALO has typically landed between $14.08 and $21.38 — a range of −19.2% to +22.8% from the issuance price $17.42.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,078 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-05-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.42) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$17.42 · 90% of range

$8.93 low$18.33 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.2%

typical move · IQR 17.6%

−19.2%worst (p90)+22.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where TALO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.42 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $17.42 (+0.0%)
typical $17.62 (+1.2%)
middle 50% $16.09–$19.15
90% range $14.08–$21.38

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,078 windows spanning 2018-05-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-13	−69.2%	−69.2%	+0.0%
2020-02-21	−64.9%	−67.6%	+0.0%
2020-03-03	−63.9%	−63.9%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-01	+99.2%	+0.0%	+122.5%
2020-03-31	+98.1%	−11.0%	+98.1%
2020-03-30	+96.8%	−10.2%	+96.8%

2,078 overlapping windows · 2018-05-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

75%

+0.9%

n=8

Feb

63%

+5.0%

n=8

Mar

75%

−0.2%

n=8

Apr

50%

+9.5%

n=8

May

50%

+2.7%

n=8

Jun

67%

−3.6%

n=9

Jul

56%

+0.3%

n=9

Aug

67%

+5.1%

n=9

Sep

33%

−4.1%

n=9

Oct

50%

+0.6%

n=8

Nov

50%

−0.3%

n=8

Dec

25%

−1.3%

n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-02	Moss William S. III	officer	Sale	120,000 @ $17.32	$2.1M	−28.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	305,117	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-27	Spath John B.	officer	Sale	90,000 @ $16.90	$1.5M	−33.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	178,788	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-27	Babcock Gregory	officer	Sale	61,307 @ $16.74	$1.0M	−42.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	84,509	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-20	Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V.	other	Sale	339,568 @ $16.80	$5.7M	−0.8% of holding	−13.9%	not yet — horizon still open	40,460,036	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19	Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V.	other	Sale	150,000 @ $16.38	$2.5M	−0.4% of holding	−19.0%	not yet — horizon still open	40,799,604	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18	Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V.	other	Sale	284,000 @ $16.38	$4.7M	−0.7% of holding	−14.2%	not yet — horizon still open	40,949,604	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-27	Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V.	other	Sale	1,352,000 @ $16.68	$22.6M	−3.2% of holding	−18.6%	not yet — horizon still open	41,233,604	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-26	Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V.	other	Sale	960,000 @ $16.65	$16.0M	−2.2% of holding	−19.1%	not yet — horizon still open	42,585,604	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-03	Glover Paula R	director	Sale	6,159 @ $9.69	$60K	−100.0% of holding	−5.8%	+31.5%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

95 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-09	Spath John B.	officer	Withheld for tax	5,552	173,236	Form 4
2026-09-09	Moss William S. III	officer	Withheld for tax	5,208	299,909	Form 4
2026-09-09	Babcock Gregory	officer	Withheld for tax	4,293	80,216	Form 4
2026-07-01	Babcock Gregory	officer	Withheld for tax	438	145,816	Form 4
2026-03-10	Goodfellow Paul R A	director	Withheld for tax	44,403	508,285	Form 4
2026-03-10	Moss William S. III	officer	Withheld for tax	13,103	439,136	Form 4
2026-03-10	Spath John B.	officer	Withheld for tax	13,102	282,807	Form 4
2026-03-10	GOLDMAN NEAL P	director	Disposition	10,211	77,566	Form 4
2026-03-10	SLEDGE CHARLES M	director	Disposition	7,104	57,940	Form 4
2026-03-10	Sherrill Richard	director	Disposition	7,104	71,284	Form 4
2026-03-10	Szabo Shandell	director	Disposition	7,104	54,669	Form 4
2026-03-10	Babcock Gregory	officer	Withheld for tax	4,368	150,927	Form 4
2026-03-10	SLEDGE CHARLES M	director	Option exercise	17,759	0	Form 4
2026-03-10	JUNEAU JOHN B	director	Option exercise	17,759	0	Form 4
2026-03-10	GOLDMAN NEAL P	director	Option exercise	25,528	0	Form 4
2026-03-10	Sherrill Richard	director	Option exercise	17,759	0	Form 4
2026-03-10	Szabo Shandell	director	Option exercise	17,759	0	Form 4
2026-03-10	Szabo Shandell	director	Option exercise	17,759	61,773	Form 4
2026-03-10	Szabo Shandell	director	Option exercise	17,759	61,773	Form 4
2026-03-10	SLEDGE CHARLES M	director	Option exercise	17,759	65,044	Form 4
2026-03-10	GOLDMAN NEAL P	director	Option exercise	25,528	87,777	Form 4
2026-03-10	Sherrill Richard	director	Option exercise	17,759	78,388	Form 4
2026-03-10	JUNEAU JOHN B	director	Option exercise	17,759	90,343	Form 4
2026-03-10	GOLDMAN NEAL P	director	Option exercise	25,528	87,777	Form 4
2026-03-10	JUNEAU JOHN B	director	Option exercise	17,759	90,343	Form 4
2026-03-10	Sherrill Richard	director	Option exercise	17,759	78,388	Form 4
2026-03-10	SLEDGE CHARLES M	director	Option exercise	17,759	65,044	Form 4
2026-03-05	Moss William S. III	officer	Withheld for tax	11,001	452,239	Form 4
2026-03-05	Spath John B.	officer	Withheld for tax	8,288	295,909	Form 4
2026-03-05	Babcock Gregory	officer	Withheld for tax	5,339	155,295	Form 4
2026-03-05	JUNEAU JOHN B	director	Award / grant	14,018	14,018	Form 4
2026-03-05	SLEDGE CHARLES M	director	Award / grant	14,018	14,018	Form 4
2026-03-05	GOLDMAN NEAL P	director	Award / grant	19,470	19,470	Form 4
2026-03-05	Glover Paula R	director	Award / grant	14,018	14,018	Form 4
2026-03-05	Szabo Shandell	director	Award / grant	14,018	14,018	Form 4
2026-03-05	Langin William R.	officer	Award / grant	70,093	86,451	Form 4
2026-03-05	Dailey Zachary B.	officer	Award / grant	70,093	99,143	Form 4
2026-03-05	Babcock Gregory	officer	Award / grant	23,364	160,634	Form 4
2026-03-05	Moss William S. III	officer	Award / grant	70,093	463,240	Form 4
2026-03-05	Spath John B.	officer	Award / grant	70,093	304,197	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i