Issued 2026-08-24 at $5.25 · now $5.25 (2026-08-14, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-24 close, TALK has typically landed between $3.98 and $6.91 — a range of −24.3% to +31.7% from the issuance price $5.25.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,497 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-07-30 – 2026-07-16 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.8–56.2%, ≈1,423 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-24 issuance close ($5.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-22, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TALK has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-24 close of $5.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.25 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.27 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.62–$5.92
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.98–$6.91
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-11-03 | −48.6% | −48.6% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-12 | −45.4% | −45.4% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-02 | −45.3% | −45.5% | +3.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-05-24 | +70.3% | −4.5% | +70.3% |
| 2022-05-25 | +67.9% | +0.0% | +78.3% |
| 2023-11-09 | +58.7% | +0.0% | +58.7% |
1,497 overlapping windows · 2020-07-30 – 2026-08-14 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Reilly John Charles | officer | Sale | 39,115 @ $5.20 | $203K | −3.7% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,018,860 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Reilly John Charles | officer | Sale | 700 @ $5.21 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,017,686 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Reilly John Charles | officer | Sale | 474 @ $5.21 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,018,386 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Reilly John Charles | officer | Sale | 54,244 @ $5.21 | $283K | −4.9% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,057,975 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Reilly John Charles | officer | Sale | 900 @ $5.22 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,112,219 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
295 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Margolin Gil | officer | Disposition | 160,626 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Abbott Swati Bargotra | director | Disposition | 78,830 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Abbott Swati Bargotra | director | Disposition | 57,985 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Benzur Liat | director | Disposition | 77,446 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Benzur Liat | director | Disposition | 78,830 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Benzur Liat | director | Disposition | 57,985 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Braunstein Douglas L | director | Disposition | 2,038,612 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Braunstein Douglas L | director | Disposition | 891,583 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Braunstein Douglas L | director | Disposition | 700,529 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Braunstein Douglas L | director | Disposition | 9,795,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Braunstein Douglas L | director | Disposition | 48,222 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Braunstein Douglas L | director | Disposition | 640,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Braunstein Douglas L | director | Disposition | 63,402 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Cohen Jon R | director | Disposition | 1,581,499 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Cohen Jon R | director | Disposition | 1,260,308 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Cohen Jon R | director | Disposition | 662,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Cohen Jon R | director | Disposition | 200,211 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Cohen Jon R | director | Disposition | 168,465 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Cohen Jon R | director | Disposition | 120,403 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Cohen Jon R | director | Disposition | 237,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Cohen Jon R | director | Disposition | 370,623 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Cohen Jon R | director | Disposition | 93,648 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Hansen Michael E | director | Disposition | 203,959 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Hansen Michael E | director | Disposition | 48,222 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Hansen Michael E | director | Disposition | 200,211 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Harris Ian Jiro | director | Disposition | 303,981 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Harris Ian Jiro | director | Disposition | 420,824 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Harris Ian Jiro | director | Disposition | 17,520 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Harris Ian Jiro | director | Disposition | 48,182 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Margolin Gil | officer | Disposition | 106,387 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Margolin Gil | officer | Disposition | 160,626 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Margolin Gil | officer | Disposition | 7,033 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Margolin Gil | officer | Disposition | 17,088 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Margolin Gil | officer | Disposition | 8,086 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Margolin Gil | officer | Disposition | 15,411 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Margolin Gil | officer | Disposition | 10,549 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Margolin Gil | officer | Disposition | 17,791 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Margolin Gil | officer | Disposition | 11,988 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Margolin Gil | officer | Disposition | 495,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Pawar Madhu | director | Disposition | 341,734 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.