TAK · TickerCove

TAKTakeda Pharmaceutical Company LimitedHealthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Genericas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $18.64 · now $18.64 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TAK has typically landed between $17.20 and $20.34 — a range of −7.7% to +9.1% from the issuance price $18.64.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,610 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-03-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($18.64) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$18.64 · 98% of range

$13.01 low$18.77 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.0%

typical move · IQR 8.0%

−7.7%worst (p90)+9.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where TAK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $18.64 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $18.64 (+0.0%)
typical $18.64 (+0.0%)
middle 50% $17.9–$19.38
90% range $17.2–$20.34

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,610 windows spanning 2008-03-06 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−32.0%	−32.0%	+0.0%
2020-02-13	−31.8%	−31.8%	+0.0%
2009-02-05	−31.3%	−31.3%	+0.4%
3 best
2008-10-10	+37.3%	+0.0%	+44.3%
2020-03-18	+32.7%	+0.0%	+33.0%
2020-03-23	+31.6%	+0.0%	+31.6%

4,610 overlapping windows · 2008-03-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

67%

+3.7%

n=18

Feb

61%

+0.7%

n=18

Mar

50%

−0.5%

n=18

Apr

58%

−0.6%

n=19

May

37%

−1.6%

n=19

Jun

42%

−0.3%

n=19

Jul

68%

+1.9%

n=19

Aug

53%

+0.7%

n=19

Sep

63%

+1.0%

n=19

Oct

44%

−2.3%

n=18

Nov

44%

+0.4%

n=18

Dec

61%

+1.1%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Duprey Lauren Rusckowski	officer	Sale	34,535 @ $18.54	$640K	−15.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	191,522	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02	Plump Andrew Stewart	director	Sale	116,191 @ $18.49	$2.1M	−44.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	145,465	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19	Plump Andrew Stewart	director	Sale	19,651 @ $18.49	$363K	−7.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	261,656	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18	Greenway Nicola Deidre Petal	officer	Sale	12,980 @ $18.11	$235K	−24.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	40,049	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Shannon Elaine Mary	officer	Sale	20,363 @ $17.55	$357K	−23.2% of holding	+5.3%	not yet — horizon still open	67,311	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10	Plump Andrew Stewart	director	Sale	165,393 @ $17.10	$2.8M	−17.7% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	766,569	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Kim Julie So-Young	director	Sale	89,090 @ $17.10	$1.5M	−18.5% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	391,489	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Bitetti Teresa Marie	director	Sale	50,012 @ $17.10	$855K	−16.6% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	252,010	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Duprey Lauren Rusckowski	officer	Sale	47,586 @ $17.10	$814K	−17.4% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	226,057	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Greenway Nicola Deidre Petal	officer	Sale	33,628 @ $17.51	$589K	−36.0% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	59,803	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Platford Giles Richard	officer	Sale	31,083 @ $17.10	$532K	−9.0% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	315,838	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Furney Natalie Anne Marie	officer	Sale	30,868 @ $17.10	$528K	−13.1% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	204,298	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Ricci Gabriele	officer	Sale	25,088 @ $17.10	$429K	−12.8% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	171,654	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Pignagnoli Agosti Marcello	officer	Sale	22,957 @ $17.10	$393K	−11.5% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	176,977	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Pacheco Rhonda Janice	officer	Sale	16,901 @ $17.10	$289K	−8.5% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	182,507	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Farajallah Awny Samaan Botros	officer	Sale	14,006 @ $17.10	$240K	−10.8% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	116,177	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Ibrahim Ramy Riad Ahmed	officer	Sale	7,277 @ $17.10	$124K	−6.6% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	102,588	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Greenway Nicola Deidre Petal	officer	Sale	6,774 @ $17.10	$116K	−11.3% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	53,029	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Shannon Elaine Mary	officer	Sale	3,978 @ $17.10	$68K	−5.9% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	63,333	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Greenway Nicola Deidre Petal	officer	Sale	975 @ $17.50	$17K	−1.0% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	93,431	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

60 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-10	Furuta Milano	director	Disposition	16,619	0	Form 4
2026-07-10	Iijima Masami	director	Disposition	2,152	0	Form 4
2026-07-10	Tsusaka Miki	director	Disposition	2,152	0	Form 4
2026-07-10	GILLIS STEVEN	director	Disposition	1,152	0	Form 4
2026-07-10	MARAGANORE JOHN	director	Disposition	1,152	0	Form 4
2026-07-10	Reed Kimberly A.	director	Disposition	1,152	0	Form 4
2026-07-10	Miyabashira Asuka	officer	Disposition	1,022	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Kimura Koichiro	director	Award / grant	1,800	1,800	Form 4
2026-07-01	MARAGANORE JOHN	director	Award / grant	1,319	1,319	Form 4
2026-07-01	Miyabashira Asuka	officer	Award / grant	1,500	4,500	Form 4
2026-07-01	Kimura Koichiro	director	Award / grant	1,937	1,937	Form 4
2026-07-01	Miyabashira Asuka	officer	Award / grant	664	1,392	Form 4
2026-07-01	Miyabashira Asuka	officer	Award / grant	664	1,174	Form 4
2026-07-01	Miyabashira Asuka	officer	Award / grant	666	666	Form 4
2026-07-01	Pacheco Rhonda Janice	officer	Award / grant	50,156	199,408	Form 4
2026-07-01	Pignagnoli Agosti Marcello	officer	Award / grant	27,586	199,934	Form 4
2026-07-01	Platford Giles Richard	officer	Award / grant	49,558	346,921	Form 4
2026-07-01	Plump Andrew Stewart	director	Award / grant	125,390	931,962	Form 4
2026-07-01	Reed Kimberly A.	director	Award / grant	3,800	10,400	Form 4
2026-07-01	MARAGANORE JOHN	director	Award / grant	3,800	10,400	Form 4
2026-07-01	Reed Kimberly A.	director	Award / grant	1,319	1,319	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ricci Gabriele	officer	Award / grant	37,616	196,742	Form 4
2026-07-01	Shannon Elaine Mary	officer	Award / grant	30,094	87,674	Form 4
2026-07-01	Smoter Jennifer Marie	officer	Award / grant	18,808	18,808	Form 4
2026-07-01	Stoffels Paulus	director	Award / grant	3,800	3,800	Form 4
2026-07-01	Stoffels Paulus	director	Award / grant	1,307	1,307	Form 4
2026-07-01	Tsusaka Miki	director	Award / grant	1,800	8,200	Form 4
2026-07-01	Kim Julie So-Young	director	Award / grant	7,743	7,743	Form 4
2026-07-01	Tsusaka Miki	director	Award / grant	1,937	1,937	Form 4
2026-07-01	Kim Julie So-Young	director	Award / grant	7,741	7,741	Form 4
2026-07-01	Kim Julie So-Young	director	Award / grant	22,800	22,800	Form 4
2026-07-01	Kim Julie So-Young	director	Award / grant	50,434	480,579	Form 4
2026-07-01	Iijima Masami	director	Award / grant	1,937	1,937	Form 4
2026-07-01	Iijima Masami	director	Award / grant	1,800	14,601	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ibrahim Ramy Riad Ahmed	officer	Award / grant	25,078	109,865	Form 4
2026-07-01	Greenway Nicola Deidre Petal	officer	Award / grant	22,570	94,406	Form 4
2026-07-01	GILLIS STEVEN	director	Award / grant	1,319	1,319	Form 4
2026-07-01	GILLIS STEVEN	director	Award / grant	3,800	10,400	Form 4
2026-07-01	Furuta Milano	director	Award / grant	4,288	4,288	Form 4
2026-07-01	Furuta Milano	director	Award / grant	4,288	8,482	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i