SXCSunCoke Energy, Inc.Basic Materials · Steelas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.61 · now $9.61 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SXC has typically landed between $8.16 and $11.47 — a range of −15.1% to +19.4% from the issuance price $9.61.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,790 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-07-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.61) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SXC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.61 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$8.16worst · -15.1%$11.47best · +19.4%
  • now $9.61 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.75 (+1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.02–$10.47
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.16–$11.47
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,790 windows spanning 2011-07-21 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−53.0%−53.4%+0.0%
2020-02-11−52.4%−52.4%+2.2%
2015-10-08−49.3%−51.1%+1.3%
3 best
2016-02-10+107.2%+0.0%+107.2%
2016-02-11+103.1%+0.0%+105.4%
2016-02-09+87.5%−4.3%+96.6%

3,790 overlapping windows · 2011-07-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
53%
+1.5%
n=15
Feb
60%
+3.8%
n=15
Mar
53%
+1.3%
n=15
Apr
47%
−0.9%
n=15
May
40%
+0.1%
n=15
Jun
40%
−0.5%
n=15
Jul
67%
+3.7%
n=15
Aug
38%
−2.7%
n=16
Sep
38%
−3.5%
n=16
Oct
60%
+6.3%
n=15
Nov
47%
+0.5%
n=15
Dec
47%
+0.8%
n=15

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$11$62026-02-26: 1 insider purchase, $28K — Mikhalevsky Andrei Alexander2026-02-25: 4 insider purchases, $131K — Hardesty Phillip Michael, Marinko Mark W. …2025-11-07: 3 insider purchases, $80K — Hardesty Phillip Michael …2025-11-06: 1 insider purchase, $50K — Della Ratta Ralph M Jr2025-11: 4 open-market purchases, $130K2026-02: 5 open-market purchases, $159K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Mikhalevsky Andrei Alexander — Purchase on 2026-02-26, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Hardesty Phillip Michael — Purchase on 2026-02-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Marinko Mark W. — Purchase on 2026-02-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Marinko Mark W. — Purchase on 2026-02-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hardesty Phillip Michael — Purchase on 2026-02-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hardesty Phillip Michael — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Hardesty Phillip Michael — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Hardesty Phillip Michael — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Della Ratta Ralph M Jr — Purchase on 2025-11-06, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-26Mikhalevsky Andrei AlexanderdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $5.53$28K+250.0% of holding+25.0%+71.8%7,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-25Hardesty Phillip MichaelofficerPurchase12,209 @ $5.83$71K+4.3% of holding+21.1%+61.2%298,386Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-25Marinko Mark W.officerPurchase9,600 @ $5.84$56K+15.4% of holding+21.1%+61.2%71,798Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-25Marinko Mark W.officerPurchase400 @ $5.83$2K+0.6% of holding+21.1%+61.2%62,198Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-25Hardesty Phillip MichaelofficerPurchase291 @ $5.82$2K+0.1% of holding+21.1%+61.2%298,677Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-07Hardesty Phillip MichaelofficerPurchase9,168 @ $6.64$61K+3.6% of holding+3.2%+4.4%262,683Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-07Hardesty Phillip MichaelofficerPurchase2,032 @ $6.62$13K+0.8% of holding+3.2%+4.4%252,715Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-07Hardesty Phillip MichaelofficerPurchase800 @ $6.63$5K+0.3% of holding+3.2%+4.4%253,515Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-06Della Ratta Ralph M JrdirectorPurchase7,288 @ $6.86$50K+9.2% of holding+2.9%+5.4%86,293Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

151 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-14Mikhalevsky Andrei AlexanderdirectorAward / grant21,65262,921Form 4
2026-05-14Anton Arthur FdirectorAward / grant21,65295,571Form 4
2026-05-14Lewis Michael WarddirectorAward / grant21,65275,214Form 4
2026-05-14Della Ratta Ralph M JrdirectorAward / grant36,58573,175Form 4
2026-05-14Carnes Martha Z.directorAward / grant21,65275,214Form 4
2026-05-14Landahl Susan R.directorAward / grant21,65275,214Form 4
2026-02-24Gates Katherine TdirectorWithheld for tax17,047278,592Form 4
2026-02-24Gates Katherine TdirectorWithheld for tax7,920257,159Form 4
2026-02-24Hardesty Phillip MichaelofficerWithheld for tax4,108267,258Form 4
2026-02-24Hardesty Phillip MichaelofficerWithheld for tax3,686271,364Form 4
2026-02-24Marinko Mark W.officerWithheld for tax3,75248,662Form 4
2026-02-24Marinko Mark W.officerWithheld for tax3,36752,895Form 4
2026-02-24Gates Katherine TdirectorOther acquisition10,695316,676Form 4
2026-02-24Gates Katherine TdirectorOption exercise17,8780Form 4
2026-02-24Gates Katherine TdirectorOption exercise38,48038,479Form 4
2026-02-24Hardesty Phillip MichaelofficerOption exercise7,7927,792Form 4
2026-02-24Hardesty Phillip MichaelofficerOption exercise8,6830Form 4
2026-02-24Hardesty Phillip MichaelofficerOption exercise7,792275,050Form 4
2026-02-24Hardesty Phillip MichaelofficerOther acquisition10,695286,177Form 4
2026-02-24Hardesty Phillip MichaelofficerOption exercise8,6830Form 4
2026-02-24Hardesty Phillip MichaelofficerOption exercise8,683271,366Form 4
2026-02-24Gates Katherine TdirectorOption exercise17,878265,079Form 4
2026-02-24Gates Katherine TdirectorOption exercise17,8780Form 4
2026-02-24Gates Katherine TdirectorOption exercise38,48038,479Form 4
2026-02-24Hardesty Phillip MichaelofficerOption exercise7,792275,050Form 4
2026-02-24Marinko Mark W.officerOption exercise7,60056,262Form 4
2026-02-24Marinko Mark W.officerOption exercise8,46852,414Form 4
2026-02-24Marinko Mark W.officerOption exercise8,46852,414Form 4
2026-02-24Marinko Mark W.officerOther acquisition4,63361,798Form 4
2026-02-24Marinko Mark W.officerOption exercise8,4680Form 4
2026-02-24Marinko Mark W.officerOption exercise7,6007,599Form 4
2026-02-24Marinko Mark W.officerOption exercise7,60056,262Form 4
2026-02-24Hardesty Phillip MichaelofficerOption exercise8,683271,366Form 4
2026-02-24Marinko Mark W.officerOther acquisition4,63361,798Form 4
2026-02-24Marinko Mark W.officerOption exercise8,4680Form 4
2026-02-24Marinko Mark W.officerOption exercise7,6007,599Form 4
2026-02-24Gates Katherine TdirectorOther acquisition10,695316,676Form 4
2026-02-24Gates Katherine TdirectorOption exercise38,480295,639Form 4
2026-02-24Hardesty Phillip MichaelofficerOption exercise7,7927,792Form 4
2026-02-24Hardesty Phillip MichaelofficerOther acquisition10,695286,177Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.