SWKSSkyworks Solutions, Inc.Technology · Semiconductorsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $85.59 · now $85.59 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SWKS has typically landed between $71.96 and $100.31 — a range of −15.9% to +17.2% from the issuance price $85.59.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($85.59) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SWKS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $85.59 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$71.96worst · -15.9%$100.31best · +17.2%
  • now $85.59 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $84.66 (-1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $78.99–$90.33
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $71.96–$100.31
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-11-05−46.4%−46.4%+0.0%
2008-11-04−44.7%−44.7%+0.0%
2020-02-13−44.6%−44.6%+0.0%
3 best
2009-01-30+60.9%+0.0%+60.9%
2009-02-02+53.8%+0.0%+58.1%
2008-12-04+50.5%−4.2%+50.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$9.1B
market cap
$2.41
EPS (TTM)
25.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$4.1B
'20'25
Net income$477M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr11.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr8.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.21
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $85.59$52.55$88.04
  • DCF (intrinsic)$83.35
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$82.43
  • Analyst target · range $55.00–$85.00$75.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$85.59

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+4.1%
n=18
Feb
74%
+6.6%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.4%
n=19
Apr
47%
+1.9%
n=19
May
58%
+2.2%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.7%
n=19
Jul
68%
+4.9%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.1%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.7%
n=19
Oct
56%
−1.1%
n=18
Nov
61%
−0.2%
n=18
Dec
56%
+2.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$90$522025-11-19: 4 insider sales, $765K — Kasnavi Reza, TERRY ROBERT JOHN …2025-11: 4 open-market sales, $765K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Kasnavi Reza — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer TERRY ROBERT JOHN — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Kasnavi Reza — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer TERRY ROBERT JOHN — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-11-19Kasnavi RezaofficerSale6,656 @ $62.31$415K−20.3% of holding+0.3%+20.1%26,087Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-19TERRY ROBERT JOHNofficerSale4,445 @ $62.33$277K−18.3% of holding+0.3%+20.1%19,824Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-19Kasnavi RezaofficerSale676 @ $61.81$42K−2.0% of holding+0.3%+20.1%32,743Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-19TERRY ROBERT JOHNofficerSale500 @ $61.85$31K−2.0% of holding+0.3%+20.1%24,269Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25BRACE PHILIP GdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $66.13$661Kownership Δ n/a+6.2%+7.4%10,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

157 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Carter Philip MatthewofficerWithheld for tax5,0464,871Form 4
2026-09-08Carter Philip MatthewofficerOption exercise9,91729,749Form 4
2026-09-08Carter Philip MatthewofficerOption exercise9,9179,917Form 4
2026-09-08Carter Philip MatthewofficerOption exercise9,9179,917Form 4
2026-09-08Carter Philip MatthewofficerOption exercise9,9179,917Form 4
2026-09-08Carter Philip MatthewofficerOption exercise9,9179,917Form 4
2026-05-14SCHRIESHEIM ROBERT AdirectorOption exercise3,6640Form 4
2026-05-14Turcke MaryanndirectorOption exercise3,6640Form 4
2026-05-14Guerin EricdirectorOption exercise3,6640Form 4
2026-05-14McBride Suzanne E.directorOption exercise3,6640Form 4
2026-05-14Batey Alan S.directorOption exercise3,6640Form 4
2026-05-14David P McGladedirectorOption exercise3,6640Form 4
2026-05-14KING CHRISTINEdirectorOption exercise4,0710Form 4
2026-05-14BEEBE KEVIN LdirectorOption exercise3,6640Form 4
2026-05-14Batey Alan S.directorOption exercise3,66415,659Form 4
2026-05-14BEEBE KEVIN LdirectorOption exercise3,66456,669Form 4
2026-05-14David P McGladedirectorOption exercise3,6643,664Form 4
2026-05-14BEEBE KEVIN LdirectorOption exercise3,66456,669Form 4
2026-05-14Guerin EricdirectorOption exercise3,66411,254Form 4
2026-05-14KING CHRISTINEdirectorOption exercise4,07129,400Form 4
2026-05-14McBride Suzanne E.directorOption exercise3,66411,262Form 4
2026-05-14Batey Alan S.directorOption exercise3,66415,659Form 4
2026-05-14David P McGladedirectorOption exercise3,6643,664Form 4
2026-05-14KING CHRISTINEdirectorOption exercise4,07129,400Form 4
2026-05-14SCHRIESHEIM ROBERT AdirectorOption exercise3,66466,817Form 4
2026-05-14Turcke MaryanndirectorOption exercise3,66410,091Form 4
2026-05-14SCHRIESHEIM ROBERT AdirectorOption exercise3,66466,817Form 4
2026-05-14Turcke MaryanndirectorOption exercise3,66410,091Form 4
2026-05-14Guerin EricdirectorOption exercise3,66411,254Form 4
2026-05-13David P McGladedirectorAward / grant3,7243,724Form 4
2026-05-13KING CHRISTINEdirectorAward / grant4,1294,129Form 4
2026-05-13SCHRIESHEIM ROBERT AdirectorAward / grant3,7243,724Form 4
2026-05-13Batey Alan S.directorAward / grant3,7243,724Form 4
2026-05-13BEEBE KEVIN LdirectorAward / grant3,7243,724Form 4
2026-05-13Guerin EricdirectorAward / grant3,7243,724Form 4
2026-05-13McBride Suzanne E.directorAward / grant3,7243,724Form 4
2026-05-13Turcke MaryanndirectorAward / grant3,7243,724Form 4
2026-02-17Turcke MaryanndirectorOption exercise6920Form 4
2026-02-17Turcke MaryanndirectorOption exercise6926,427Form 4
2026-02-17Turcke MaryanndirectorOption exercise6926,427Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-03-092026-02-10$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-03-062025-02-19$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatesale2024-12-172024-11-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-12-052024-11-15$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2024-06-142024-05-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-06-052024-05-29$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatepurchase2024-05-152024-04-05$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatepurchase2024-05-152024-04-29$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.