SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc.Industrials · Manufacturing - Tools & Accessoriesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $89.05 · now $89.05 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SWK has typically landed between $76.20 and $103.27 — a range of −14.4% to +16.0% from the issuance price $89.05.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($89.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SWK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $89.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$76.2worst · -14.4%$103.27best · +16.0%
  • now $89.05 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $88.54 (-0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $81.89–$95.19
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $76.2–$103.27
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−54.2%−54.2%+0.0%
2020-02-18−52.3%−52.3%+0.0%
2020-02-20−50.7%−51.4%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+49.1%+0.0%+65.7%
2020-03-18+43.7%−8.0%+52.4%
2020-05-06+39.0%−3.5%+39.0%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$14.2B
market cap
$2.44
EPS (TTM)
37.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$15.1B
'20'25
Net income$402M
'20'25
Free cash flow$688M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr2.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr4.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.66
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $89.05$33.87$104.90
  • DCF (intrinsic)$38.77
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$74.79
  • Analyst target · range $84.00–$100.00$84.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$89.05

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
+0.9%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.4%
n=19
Mar
53%
−1.2%
n=19
Apr
63%
+1.5%
n=19
May
58%
−0.7%
n=19
Jun
42%
+1.4%
n=19
Jul
63%
+5.2%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.8%
n=19
Sep
53%
−0.5%
n=19
Oct
61%
−1.2%
n=18
Nov
78%
+3.7%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$104$602026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $105K — Greulach Scot2025-11-06: 1 insider sale, $813K — Link Janet2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $813K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $105K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Greulach Scot — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Link Janet — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Greulach ScotofficerSale1,015 @ $103.61$105K−14.7% of holding−8.8%not yet — horizon still open5,906Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-06Link JanetofficerSale11,766 @ $69.08$813K−100.0% of holding+6.5%+9.0%0Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

298 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-05Allan DonalddirectorWithheld for tax875148,931Form 4
2026-07-05Allan DonalddirectorOption exercise2,0010Form 4
2026-07-05Allan DonalddirectorOption exercise2,001149,806Form 4
2026-07-05Allan DonalddirectorOption exercise2,001149,806Form 4
2026-06-29Nelson Christopher JohndirectorWithheld for tax8,77947,883Form 4
2026-06-29Nelson Christopher JohndirectorWithheld for tax1,43756,662Form 4
2026-06-29Nelson Christopher JohndirectorOption exercise19,6390Form 4
2026-06-29Nelson Christopher JohndirectorOption exercise3,2140Form 4
2026-06-29Nelson Christopher JohndirectorOption exercise19,63958,099Form 4
2026-06-29Nelson Christopher JohndirectorOption exercise3,21438,460Form 4
2026-06-29Nelson Christopher JohndirectorOption exercise19,63958,099Form 4
2026-06-29Nelson Christopher JohndirectorOption exercise3,21438,460Form 4
2026-06-23GARRISON JOHN L JRdirectorAward / grant4433,073Form 4
2026-06-23CARTER SUSAN KdirectorAward / grant4294,826Form 4
2026-06-23OKelly Shane MdirectorAward / grant370719Form 4
2026-06-23Crew Debra AnndirectorAward / grant37018,257Form 4
2026-06-23Hankin Michael DaviddirectorAward / grant37014,180Form 4
2026-06-23Mitchell Adrian VdirectorAward / grant3706,950Form 4
2026-06-23Crew Debra AnndirectorAward / grant17618,432Form 4
2026-06-23Crew Debra AnndirectorAward / grant14715,284Form 4
2026-06-23Hankin Michael DaviddirectorAward / grant14617,181Form 4
2026-06-23Hankin Michael DaviddirectorAward / grant13614,316Form 4
2026-06-23Crew Debra AnndirectorAward / grant13315,137Form 4
2026-06-23Palmieri JanedirectorAward / grant12913,282Form 4
2026-06-23Mitchell Adrian VdirectorAward / grant12012,362Form 4
2026-06-23CARTER SUSAN KdirectorAward / grant828,443Form 4
2026-06-23Mitchell Adrian VdirectorAward / grant657,015Form 4
2026-06-23GARRISON JOHN L JRdirectorAward / grant596,052Form 4
2026-06-23CARTER SUSAN KdirectorAward / grant434,869Form 4
2026-06-23GARRISON JOHN L JRdirectorAward / grant263,098Form 4
2026-06-23Laschinger Mary AdirectorAward / grant262,629Form 4
2026-06-23OKelly Shane MdirectorAward / grant262,629Form 4
2026-06-23Palmieri JanedirectorAward / grant212,147Form 4
2026-06-23OKelly Shane MdirectorAward / grant3722Form 4
2026-05-04Greulach ScotofficerAward / grant1,9521,952Form 4
2026-05-04Laschinger Mary AdirectorAward / grant2,6032,603Form 4
2026-05-04MANNING ROBERT JdirectorAward / grant2,60310,301Form 4
2026-05-04Mitchell Adrian VdirectorAward / grant2,60312,242Form 4
2026-05-04CARTER SUSAN KdirectorAward / grant2,6038,361Form 4
2026-05-04Hankin Michael DaviddirectorAward / grant2,60317,035Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Gary PetersSenatepurchase2026-01-202026-01-12$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-11-102025-10-27$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-22$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2025-08-132025-07-24$100–250K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-08-132025-07-24$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2025-08-132025-07-24$50–100K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.